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Thursday December 4, 2008 - 13:52:54 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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Interest Rate Decisions Dominate Headlines -- But Is It News?

Key News
• Sweden Cuts Benchmark Rate More Than Forecast as Economy, Inflation Slow (Bloomberg)
• New Zealand Cuts Key Rate to 5% From 6.5% as Recession Curbs Export Demand (Bloomberg)
• US, China headed for possible currency clash (Breitbart)

Quotable
“Wait until it stops rolling and pick it up.”

         Bob Eucker, on how to catch a knuckleball

FX Trading – Interest Rate Decisions Dominate Headlines -- But Is It News?

Well, the trend is certainly there. Central banks are cutting interest rates in a big way. The first two key news headlines above speak to that point. And of course, the Bank of England just announced a 100-basis point rate cut this morning. The European Central Bank cut 75 basis points.

Heading into these two key decisions traders bid down both the pound and the euro. Selling pressure forced the British pound below key daily support but the price popped back up ahead of the announcement.

Reaction after the BOE announced was somewhat pound-positive. The decision was in-line with expectations and it seemed traders were in no hurry to push the British pound lower. But the bounce remained contained as traders waited to see and hear from the ECB.

Well, they’ve seen what the ECB did. Even though the 75-basis point cut was a larger cut than was expected, prices didn’t respond a whole lot. Now we wait to hear a press conference from the main man, Jean-Claude Trichet. The big question for him will likely be: are additional rate cuts necessary? We would say yes.

Looking at the technical picture, the British pound has tested key daily support. While it’s holding back above this level night now, it seems like further declines are not far off on the horizon.

(Chart unavailable in text version.) 


The euro has been disappointingly boring over the last couple weeks. Traders have had little conviction over the need for the euro to backtrack from its declines ... or continue its descent.

On a technical basis, the euro is stuck in a narrowing trading range, refusing to break in either direction. Unfortunately, the immediate reaction to the ECB news hasn’t given us any peak at which way the euro might be itching to run.

 (Chart unavailable in text version.)


What we can take from this chart is the important fact that, with narrowing ranges such as this, prices typically exit the range heading in the same direction they entered. In the case of the euro, the direction is down.

Plus, we are also keeping in mind some of the fundamental drivers that will impact the intermediate-term trends for these currencies. Jack touched on one important point on Tuesday in Currency Currents:

Banks in the United Kingdom and the Euro Zone are loaded up past their eyeballs in liabilities. As a percentage of GDP, they’re exceptionally more exposed than, say, US banks. And let’s not forget the exposure each of these European regions has in the form of loans to emerging markets. Major deleveraging is yanking money out of emerging market economies fast. Major defaults have become a huge risk. This over-exposure to emerging market economies is another major burden on European and UK banks that the US doesn’t have.

Keep that in mind as we make our way to week’s end. Perhaps Trichet will have a lot to say next hour. And perhaps traders would prefer waiting until tomorrow when the November US jobs report is released.

Regards,

John Ross Crooks, III
Black Swan Capital LLC

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

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