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Thursday December 4, 2008 - 19:56:51 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Pre-Far East Open for December 5, 2008
Pre-Far East Open
- Thursday saw strong cross-currents which have seen the USD cloing lower on the day. The BOE cut interest rates by -100bps as expected to 2.00%. Also the ECB eased by -75bps to a 2.50% refi rate. This rate reduction was on the high side of the market -50bp to -75bp forecasts. Nevertheless, markets feel that the central bank is still far behind the curve on policy.
- Thursday afternoon, it appeared that the equity markets were setting up for an abysnmal November employment report. Following the usually unreliable ADP private payroll survey, steet estimastes for NFP are running for a fall of -350-400K in the month. All week those shorting stocks on expectations of bad data have been losing money. The data have been bad as expected, but the markets appear to have little left to sell now on bad news. This could be a signal of a bottom. The Friday close will be a key barometer of this theory.
- We assume that the focus of forex trade Friday will be on the equity markets again. It is all that has been working recently. No major economic data releases are due following the jobs data on Friday.
- Earlier Far East bourses closed generally lower. European exchanges latr gained, and the early call for the close of U.S. shares is for steady(?) in another volatile session.
- The 2-yr U.S. minus E-Z spread is -132bps -13 bps. U.S. bond prices are higher. E-Z bond prices closed lower.
- The USD is lower vs. the EUR and CHF from late Wednesday. The GBP is now about steady. The JPY is higher. Unofficial Japanese (Kampo) forex intervention was rumored earlier. The volatile commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are mixed. The CAD is sharply weaker after Parliament was suspended until January. Oil is weaker and well below the pivotal $50 line. Gold is softer. See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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