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Thursday December 4, 2008 - 19:56:51 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Pre-Far East Open for December 5, 2008
Pre-Far East Open
- Thursday saw strong cross-currents which have seen the USD cloing lower on the day. The BOE cut interest rates by -100bps as expected to 2.00%. Also the ECB eased by -75bps to a 2.50% refi rate. This rate reduction was on the high side of the market -50bp to -75bp forecasts. Nevertheless, markets feel that the central bank is still far behind the curve on policy.
- Thursday afternoon, it appeared that the equity markets were setting up for an abysnmal November employment report. Following the usually unreliable ADP private payroll survey, steet estimastes for NFP are running for a fall of -350-400K in the month. All week those shorting stocks on expectations of bad data have been losing money. The data have been bad as expected, but the markets appear to have little left to sell now on bad news. This could be a signal of a bottom. The Friday close will be a key barometer of this theory.
- We assume that the focus of forex trade Friday will be on the equity markets again. It is all that has been working recently. No major economic data releases are due following the jobs data on Friday.
- Earlier Far East bourses closed generally lower. European exchanges latr gained, and the early call for the close of U.S. shares is for steady(?) in another volatile session.
- The 2-yr U.S. minus E-Z spread is -132bps -13 bps. U.S. bond prices are higher. E-Z bond prices closed lower.
- The USD is lower vs. the EUR and CHF from late Wednesday. The GBP is now about steady. The JPY is higher. Unofficial Japanese (Kampo) forex intervention was rumored earlier. The volatile commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are mixed. The CAD is sharply weaker after Parliament was suspended until January. Oil is weaker and well below the pivotal $50 line. Gold is softer. See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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