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Friday December 5, 2008 - 10:36:55 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis Thread: December 5, 2008 Pre-New York Open
Pre-New York Open
- We assume that the focus of forex trade Friday will be on equity markets again. It is all that has been working recently. No major economic data releases are due following the jobs data at 13:30 GMT.
- The November U.S. employment survey that wlll be released well before the start of equity floor trading. Since Monday, the concensus forecast for the loss in jobs has worsened from -330K to -350/-400K. There is even some street talk now of a loss of -500K or more. All this week, scalpers who have been shorting stocks on bad data have lost money. Nevertheless, most data have been even worse than expected.
- Equity investors appear now to have little left to sell on bad news. This lack of followthrough selling on bad news might be a signal of a bottom. The equity closing today will be a key barometer of this theory.
- Earlier Far East bourses closed mixed to lower. European exchanges are currently weaker, and the early call for the open of U.S. shares is for a mixed open.
- The 2-yr U.S. minus E-Z spread is -129bps +8bps. U.S. bond prices are easier. E-Z bond prices are higher.
- The USD is steady vs. the EUR, JPY and GBP from late Thursday. The CHF is weaker. The volatile commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are firmer. Oil is steady. Gold is firmer. See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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