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Friday December 5, 2008 - 11:12:00 GMT
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Forex Blog - European market Update: Markets brace for weak US payroll data

Today 06:04am
European market Update: Markets brace for weak US payroll data

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (CH) Reportedly China Nov passenger auto sales are lower by 10.3% y/y - unconfirmed industry source

- 3:00 (SP) Spanish Oct Industrial Output Y/Y: -11.2% v -4.5% prior; Ind Output WDA: -12.8% v -9.3%e

- 3:00 (HU) Hungarian Industrial Output M/M: -1.9% v -5.6%e; Y/Y: -7.2% v -5.6% prior

- (SW) Swedish Nov Budget Balance : SEK19.7B v SEK0.2B prior

- 4:00 (NO) Norwegian Industrial Production M/M: 3.1% v 1.8% prior; Y/Y: -0.9% v -4.2% prior

- - 4:00 (NO) Norwegian Industrial Production Manufacturing M/M: -0.4% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.3%e

- (BR) Brazil Nov IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.36% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 6.39% v6.54%e

- (RU) Russia Nov CPI M/M: 0.8% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 13.8% v 13.8%e; CPI YTD: 12.5% v 12.5%

- 6:00 (GE) German Oct Factory Orders M/M: -6.1% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: -17.3% v -12.1%e

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities: Rheinmetall [RHM.GE] Launched an accelerated €50M cost cutting program and ; restructuring implementation to affect 250 jobs by early 2010 || BMW [BMW.GE] Reported Nov sales 96.6K vehicles, down 25% from year-ago levels. YTD sales were off 1.8% to 1.33M units. || Enel [ENEL.IT] Confirmed press speculation of its planned sale of a 40% stake of Enel Green Power Stake and expects proceeds of around €2.5B. It hopes to complete the sale by end of 2009 || Berkeley Group [BKG.UK] Reported H1 Net of £57M compared to £63.4M y/y. revenues were £462.5M roughly in line with estimates of £458M. || Marston's [MARS.UK] Reported FY08 Net of £61.8M versus £68.8M expectations. Revenues were £666.1M versus £675M estimates. Company remain cautious about the immediate trading outlook but expressed confidence that steps already taken in respect of capital expenditure and cost management are appropriate for the current environment. || Bloomsbury [BMY.UK] Acquired John Wisden & Co; terms not disclosed || Julius Baer [BAER.SZ] Announced that its CEO' Alex Widmer' passed away unexpectedly || Aer Lingus [AERL.UK] Reported its Nov Passenger Numbers declined by 3.6% y/y . Its Long haul load factor came in at 72.9% versus 81.0% y/y and its Short haul load factor was 71.8% compared to 71.8% y/y. || SeaDrill [SDRL.NO] Awarded 5-year $378M contract with Cabinda Gulf oil in Africa || Maersk [MAERSKB.DE] Reportedly lowering its Asia to US freight prices by 25% ||

- Speakers: ECB's Bini Smaghi: ECB took 'adequate' step yesterday in its 75bps rate cut decision. Makes no prediction on ECB's future interest rate path. ||Germany's Bundesbank stated that it expected its economy to contract by 0.8% in 2009; inflation could go negative next year. It forecasted that inflation at 0.8% in 2009, 1.4% in 2010; and that deflation cannot be ruled out at this time but did appear unlikely to occur. Its Outlook for German economy had worsened significantly; and added that it saw adverse factors facing country's economic situation in 2009. Indicators suggest that Q4 output declined . It forecasted that Germany would return to potential after global upturn in 2010. Puts jobless rate at 8.1% in 2009, 8.% in 2010 || German Fin Min Steinbrueck stated that We are facing a global recession and added that the impact of economic stimulus measures are limited || German Bundesrat (Upper House) approved Germany's €31B stimulus package (follows action by the Lower House, Bundestag, on Thursday) ||Sweden announced SEK8B stimulus package that includes unemployment benefits and infrastructure spending || French Fin Min Lagarde: Expects to see EU banking plan responses today|| French Presidential Aide commented that its economic stimulus and aide packages would help avoid recession next year| Turkey seeing IMF loan valued at $25B (had been expected in $20-40B range depending on economic conditions.) || PM Brown stated that its Government was continuing to take action in attempts to cut interbank lending rates and would speak with UK banks to pass on full rate cuts to end users || Singapore PM: Recession may last a year; recovery could take several years || Reportedly Turkey and IMF have reached accord in public finance provisions. To draft letter of intent next week (- Note: on 12.04 Turkish PM: IMF loan plan could be completed by end of the year 2008. May sign IMF agreement worth $20-40B ) || Turkish Econ Min Simsek stated that Turkey would raise deposit guarantee if necessary but added there were no current problems with Lira deposits. He did note challenging to consider tax cuts in light of current budget deficits but cited difficulty to cut taxes at this time, which would not conform with IMF plan || Swedish Debt Office stated it would provide SEK100B borrowing facility for exports and that the Swedish Export Credit Corp (SEC) can purchase state guarantee on borrowing || Polish Central Banker Czekaj reiterate view that interest rate cuts may probably come soon and that such a decision could be announced at its Dec policy meeting

- In Currencies: The EUR/USD pair continues to maintain a 1.24 to 1.29 range ahead of US payroll data. The USD/CNY pair saw the CNY weakens by 0.7% to 6.8810 area during the week for its largest loss since revaluation. The Russian Central bank depreciated its currency for 4th time within a month. Russia widened its ruble trading band by 30 kopecks in both directions . USD/RUB at its best level in three years at the 28.1205 level

- In Energy: OPEC Pres Khelil stated that OPEC would cut production at its Dec 17th meeting in Algeria if prices remain under $60/barrel ||China coal supplies to ease in 2009; country could experience ' sporadic' coal shortages|| China's Yanzhou Coal said that it is seeking acquisition opportunities, but notes no formal talks as of yet with Australia's Felix Resources [FLX.AU] || Gazprom [GAZP.RU] Reportedly may cut output in 2009 by 15-18B cubic meters due to lower demand and would spend $2.8Bon on the construction of a Baltic pipeline || China formally announced details of its planned fuel price package

*** NOTES ***

- Employment data for both Canada and the US will be the main events. Equity markets encountered some turbulence late Thursday with European bourses softer on concerns that the US payrolls would come in below consensus estimates of a decline of 333K (whisper number remains -400K). The unemployment rate has a possibility of a 7 handle which could add more shock and dismay to the global economic recession concerns. German Fin Min Steinbrueck comment that impact of economic stimulus measures was limited seem prompting continue 'safe haven and risk aversion flows'. || Regarding the potential that the US auto makers could partake in a bailout, one dealer commented that watching the US auto executives make their case in Washington DC was “reality tv at its best”. || USD maintaining its overall consolidating tone against the European pairs but dealers noting of the magnet that the 90.00 level in USD/JPY holds. China's currency CNY registered its largest weekly loss against the USD since the revaluation occurred a few years back. As it decline around 0.7% this week to 6.8810 area.

Looking Ahead:

- 7:00 (CA) Canadian Nov Unemployment Rate: Consensus expectations are 6.4% ; The prior number was 6.2%. Net Change in Employment : Consensus expectations are -25.0k ; The prior number was 9.5k.

- 8:30 (US) Change in Non-farm Payroll : Consensus expectations are -333k; The prior number was -240k

- 8:30 (US) Nov Unemployment Rate: Consensus expectations are 6.8%; The prior number was 6.5%

- 8:30 (US) Nov Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: Consensus expectations are -100k; The prior number was -90k

- 8:30 (US) Average Hourly Earnings: M/M consensus expectations are 0.2%; The prior number was 0.2% . Y/Y Consensus expectations are 3.4%; The prior number was 3.5%.

- 8:30 (US) Average Weekly Hours: Consensus expectations are 33.6; the prior num,ber was 33.6

- 10:00 (US) Q3 Mortgage Delinquencies: There are no consensus expetations for this number; The prior number was 6.41%.

Speakers

- 8:00 (FR) French Fin Min Lagarde; EU's Almunia and EU's Verhuegen hold press conference in Paris

- 8:00 (US) Treasury's Kashkari speaks in Washington on TARP

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