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Friday December 5, 2008 - 12:04:31 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 05-Dec-2008 - 1200 GMTEURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.2117/21...13-day MA broken once again
R: 1.2141 / 1.2181 / 1.2226
S: 1.1993 / 1.1935 / 1.1890
Swiss has now retraced most of the dips it made during the US session yesterday after having recorded a low at 1.1964. It seems to be moving in a channel bound by 1.1650 at the bottom and 1.2450 at the top. Having risen in the last couple of hours and having broken the 13-day MA once again, there are good prospects for the pair to rise towards 1.23 after breaking a Resistance at 1.2250, till it manages to stay above this line. A dip could be restricted to 1.1850 where 8-week MA Support exists for the pair.
Overall, the pair could be seen to be consolidating in a broad range of 1.18-1.26 in the long term. Looks like the Support available in the 1.18 region could hold in the longer term.
GBP-USD @ 1.4662/66...Resistance at 1.4752
R: 1.4772 / 1.5004-22 / 1.5063
S: 1.4250 / 1.4220
The pair seems to be heading towards the 21-SMA on the 4-hourly. Probably could get restricted at this level, if a rise is seen during the US session.
On a broader picture, the pair looks likely to continue with the bearishness and fall further. If it continues to remain below the Resistance at 1.4752, we could see the pair retracing the low it made yesterday of 1.4468. However, given the kind of sharp moves that the pair has been witnessing over the last few weeks, no range looks wide enough. But still, we feel, the range of 1.4450-1.4800 could hold during the day.
AUD-USD @ 0.6430/34...Ranged
R: 0.6465-86 / 0.6506 / 0.6536-44
S: 0.6418 / 0.6107-090
The pair has shown little movement throughout the Asian and early European sessions today. It has traded between 0.6420-0.6473. On the upside, the nearest Resistance at 0.6486 held and on the downside again the nearest Support at 0.6418 held as well. Probably has still not been able to make up its minds as to which direction to choose and continues to remain entangled in the 8-, 13- and 21-day MAs.
On the longer term, the pair has been consolidating between the range of 0.60 to 0.70. Whichever way it elects to move, the long term range mentioned above is likely to hold for the pair.
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