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Friday December 5, 2008 - 17:08:29 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (5 December 2008)

The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2625 level and was capped around the $1.2800 figure.  Traders were shocked by U.S. economic data that confirmed November non-farm payrolls fell by a larger-than-expected 533,000, the most significant decline since December 1974 and the eleventh consecutive monthly decline. The November unemployment rate ticked higher to 6.7%, its highest level since October 1993, and many economists now believe the rate could reach at least 8% in the coming months.  Notably, the U.S. economy has lost more than 1.2 million jobs in the past three months alone, reflecting sharp downward revisions to September’s and October’s tallies.  Additionally, average hourly earnings climbed 0.4% m/m and 3.7% y/y to US$ 18.30 and service sector employment fell a staggering 370,000.   Today’s data render it all but certain that Federal Reserve policymakers will cut the overnight federal funds target rate by at least 50bps to 0.50% on 16 December.  Fed funds futures are fully pricing in a 50bps cut and a 76% implied probability of a 75bps cut to 0.25%.  In eurozone news, Germany’s upper house of parliament approved a fiscal stimulus package valued at €31 billion over two years.  Data released in Germany today saw October manufacturing orders fall 6.1%. Germany’s Bundesbank reduced its 2009 inflation outlook forecast to 0.8% but said deflationary effects “are not likely.”  The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge fell to a 33-month low in October.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.2135 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥91.60 level and was capped around the ¥92.55 level.  Traders are awaiting for new Bank of Japan funding measures to be implements from next month to ease upward pressures on money market rates and commercial paper rates.  The BoJ will also accept a wider range of collateral from 9 December for its funding operations.  Prime Minister Aso said the central bank “should consider” increasing its outright purchase of Japanese government bonds.  It is clear Japan will have to revert to some quantitative easing measures to improve the money markets in the current near-zero per cent interest rate environment.  Data released in Japan overnight saw Japan’s trade balance print at -¥441.11 billion between 1 – 20 November while Japan’s foreign reserves totaled US$ 1.002861 trillion at the end of last month.  The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.08% to close at ¥7,917.51. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥115.85 level and was capped around the ¥118.20 level.  The British pound and Swiss franc came off vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested bids around the ¥133.25 and ¥75.05 levels, respectively.   The Chinese yuan appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8812 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8817.  China and the U.S. are conducting economic talks and Treasury Secretary Paulson indicated China “agrees” the yuan should keep appreciating. 

The British pound depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.4520 level and was capped around the $1.4750 level.  The British media is reporting Bank of England is considering “radical plans” to inject cash directly into the U.K. economy as a measure to reverse the current economic recession.  Bank of England yesterday slashed interest rates to lower their lowest level since 1951 and the media report suggests quantitative easing methods are being discussed to reflate the economy.  Some U.K. banks are again refusing to pass on the latest interest rate cut to homeowners and to reduce the London Interbank Offered Rate. Cable offers are cited around the US$ 1.4865 level.  The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.8630 level and was capped around the ₤0.8720 level. 

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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