Sunday December 19, 2004 - 15:33:27 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 20th December 2004 Price: ... 1.1578
Resistance: 1.1602 ... 1.1617 ... 1.1644 ... 1.1660
Support....: 1.1550 ... 1.1519 ... 1.1470 ... 1.1435
Initially look for a 1.1545 -1.1615 range followed be a break lower to 1.1435
Our underlying view for today is mildly bearish but expect initial trading to keep within a 1.1545-1.1615 range. While we do not favor a bullish stance, only a move above 1.1620 would cause us to reconsider and if seen would imply gains through to 1.1644-60 at least. However, further strength would only occur on a break of the upper limit and would then suggest gains could extend above the 1.1683 high and onto the 1.1768 area.
We have a bearish preference today and should see a sideways range developing for the first half of the day between 1.1537-1.1615. However, while the 1.1615-20 area holds we feel that price should break down below 1.1537 and then 1.1505-15 to generate follow-through to the next support at 1.1435 which we expect to hold and cause a pullback higher that could reach the 1.1550-80 area. Assuming this to be the case we feel this next retracement to 1.1550-80 should provide a further selling opportunity.
Elliott Wave Comments:
December 17th 2004
The recovery from 1.1384 to 1.1620 was a perfect 61.8% projection of the prior Wave -a- rally. Thus this tends to imply a triangle structure and using the same projection ratio we would look for Wave -d- to reach the 1.1435 area. This should then spurn a reccovery in Wave -e- to complete the daily Wave -iv- and generate further downside to complete a Wave -v- lower.
December 20th 2004
The above still represents the ideal structure which we have in mind. The only doubts we have in our mind are the possibility of continued minor upward cyclic pressure from the red and green daily cycles. Still, even in this case we would expect the triangle to develop but this may well extend to develop a Wave x before a further ABC pattern higher to 1.1827. Thus we shall be observing the development of the anticipated triangle structure over the next few days to ensure that it matches with our expectations.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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