The US payrolls
data for November was as shocking as expected, with the largest monthly loss of
jobs since 1974 â€“ 533,000. The S&P500 initially fell on the news, but then
rose on pre-weekend position squaring to finish +3.7%. Commodities fell aggressively
because the data pointed to further economic weakness to come, the CRB making a
6 year low; Brent crude fell 5.3% to $39, and gold was down 1.3% to $767.
fell on the payroll data and commodities action, from 0.5350 to 0.52, recovering
with the late US equities
rally to a session high of 0.5365. It is currently at 0.5330, but may not
follow the US equitiesâ€™ lead after Prime Minister John Key said on
weekend television he expected the currency would eventually fall below 50 cents.
QV reported early this morning that November house prices fell 6.8% yoy, no worse
than Octoberâ€™s reading, but too early to be read as a sign of bottoming.
push to 0.6470 was similarly interrupted by the commodities induced fall to
0.6290, but then made a charge towards 0.65. AUD/NZD extended its 1.2050 to
1.2150 range, and remains there at 1.2115.
EUR was sold on
the US data to
around 1.2630, but it recovered well to the 1.2740 area, where it currently
resides. JPY traced a down-up-down pattern, but ended the
largely unchanged at 92.80.
payroll jobs plunge 533k in Nov, the steepest monthly loss since 1974, and revisions
meant a further 199k job losses in Sep and Oct. The three month average pace of
job losses is now 419k, whereas in the October report it was 217k. Letâ€™s put
that another way: in the last three months, the US economy
shed more than one and a quarter million jobs, coinciding with and indeed at
least partly caused by the confidence hit from the collapse of Lehman Bros.
This report paints a picture of an exceptionally weak economy in Q4, almost
certainly substantially underperforming the once in a generation 5% annualised
decline in GDP growth we had been forecasting. Household employment fell 673k
in November, confirming the desperate picture, but the jobless rate rose just
0.2 ppts to 6.7% because many of those losing their jobs did not look for
another one, so are not counted as unemployed.
proportion of US mortgages in default rose further in Q3, with one in
5 sub-prime loans delinquent, compared to one in 23 prime mortgages. Over the past
year, the proportion of sub-prime mortgages in foreclosure has doubled from
6.9% in Q3 07 to 12.6% last quarter. That is, one in eight of these lower rated
borrowers who took out a mortgage have now lost their home. It remains to be
seen whether the measures proposed by Fed chair Bernanke last week to stave off
this defaulter possession cycle are adopted and indeed successful.
factory orders plunged a further 6% in October making it
nine out of ten months that orders have fallen this year. Emerging weakness in
business investment prospects both in the Western world and emerging markets
poses a big risk to the German growth outlook, given the economyâ€™s leading role
as a producer of capital equipment â€“ and the orders data are capturing this.
jobs down 71k in Nov, a somewhat overdue downward correction in jobs
that was exaggerated by almost 40k of election-related jobs coming to an end. With
the US economy
seemingly in melt-down, at least until the stimulus/bailout measures bite,
Canadian economic weakness is likely to soon follow.
US equities finish should be the dominant driver this morning, Keyâ€™s comments
aside. An upward test of 0.5400 represents a good level to sell at, with a stop
at 0.5450. Support at 0.5250 should hold today.
Release Last Forecast
Building Work Put in Place â€“5.8% â€“
Aus Nov ANZ
Job Ads â€“5.9% â€“
Cash Payments AUDbn 8.4 â€“
Current Account Â¥bn 1,497.9 1,094.0
Watchers Survey (Outlook) 25.2 â€“
Sentix Investor Confidence â€“36.4 â€“40.0
Industrial Production â€“3.6% 0.5%
UK Nov PPI %yr
Housing Starts â€“3.1% â€“5.6%
â€¢ RBNZ MPS
Review (4 December)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (1 December)
â€¢ RBNZ MPS
Preview (28 November)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (24 November)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (17 November)
â€¢ NZ Q3
Retail Sales Review (13 November)
Economic Overview November 2008 (11 November)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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