The US payrolls
data for November was as shocking as expected, with the largest monthly loss of
jobs since 1974 â€“ 533,000. The S&P500 initially fell on the news, but then
rose on pre-weekend position squaring to finish +3.7%. Commodities fell aggressively
because the data pointed to further economic weakness to come, the CRB making a
6 year low; Brent crude fell 5.3% to $39, and gold was down 1.3% to $767.
fell on the payroll data and commodities action, from 0.5350 to 0.52, recovering
with the late US equities
rally to a session high of 0.5365. It is currently at 0.5330, but may not
follow the US equitiesâ€™ lead after Prime Minister John Key said on
weekend television he expected the currency would eventually fall below 50 cents.
QV reported early this morning that November house prices fell 6.8% yoy, no worse
than Octoberâ€™s reading, but too early to be read as a sign of bottoming.
push to 0.6470 was similarly interrupted by the commodities induced fall to
0.6290, but then made a charge towards 0.65. AUD/NZD extended its 1.2050 to
1.2150 range, and remains there at 1.2115.
EUR was sold on
the US data to
around 1.2630, but it recovered well to the 1.2740 area, where it currently
resides. JPY traced a down-up-down pattern, but ended the
largely unchanged at 92.80.
payroll jobs plunge 533k in Nov, the steepest monthly loss since 1974, and revisions
meant a further 199k job losses in Sep and Oct. The three month average pace of
job losses is now 419k, whereas in the October report it was 217k. Letâ€™s put
that another way: in the last three months, the US economy
shed more than one and a quarter million jobs, coinciding with and indeed at
least partly caused by the confidence hit from the collapse of Lehman Bros.
This report paints a picture of an exceptionally weak economy in Q4, almost
certainly substantially underperforming the once in a generation 5% annualised
decline in GDP growth we had been forecasting. Household employment fell 673k
in November, confirming the desperate picture, but the jobless rate rose just
0.2 ppts to 6.7% because many of those losing their jobs did not look for
another one, so are not counted as unemployed.
proportion of US mortgages in default rose further in Q3, with one in
5 sub-prime loans delinquent, compared to one in 23 prime mortgages. Over the past
year, the proportion of sub-prime mortgages in foreclosure has doubled from
6.9% in Q3 07 to 12.6% last quarter. That is, one in eight of these lower rated
borrowers who took out a mortgage have now lost their home. It remains to be
seen whether the measures proposed by Fed chair Bernanke last week to stave off
this defaulter possession cycle are adopted and indeed successful.
factory orders plunged a further 6% in October making it
nine out of ten months that orders have fallen this year. Emerging weakness in
business investment prospects both in the Western world and emerging markets
poses a big risk to the German growth outlook, given the economyâ€™s leading role
as a producer of capital equipment â€“ and the orders data are capturing this.
jobs down 71k in Nov, a somewhat overdue downward correction in jobs
that was exaggerated by almost 40k of election-related jobs coming to an end. With
the US economy
seemingly in melt-down, at least until the stimulus/bailout measures bite,
Canadian economic weakness is likely to soon follow.
US equities finish should be the dominant driver this morning, Keyâ€™s comments
aside. An upward test of 0.5400 represents a good level to sell at, with a stop
at 0.5450. Support at 0.5250 should hold today.
Release Last Forecast
Building Work Put in Place â€“5.8% â€“
Aus Nov ANZ
Job Ads â€“5.9% â€“
Cash Payments AUDbn 8.4 â€“
Current Account Â¥bn 1,497.9 1,094.0
Watchers Survey (Outlook) 25.2 â€“
Sentix Investor Confidence â€“36.4 â€“40.0
Industrial Production â€“3.6% 0.5%
UK Nov PPI %yr
Housing Starts â€“3.1% â€“5.6%
â€¢ RBNZ MPS
Review (4 December)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (1 December)
â€¢ RBNZ MPS
Preview (28 November)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (24 November)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (17 November)
â€¢ NZ Q3
Retail Sales Review (13 November)
Economic Overview November 2008 (11 November)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.