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Monday December 8, 2008 - 11:01:01 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis Pre- N.Y. open Anaysis Thread
Pre-New York Open
- Simply because it has been working, forex markets are following the lead of equities to start the new week. Asian equity indices surged today and European bourses are up sharply at this hour. The early call for the open of U.S. equities is for higher. This all comes on the heels of the strong close Friday of U.S. shares despite a much weaker than expected November employment report.
- It follows that the USD is weaker vs. Europe and that the JPY has eased, but they are still highly sensitive to equity prices. The volatile commodity currencies are firmer. Gold is up.
- The markets are looking beyond poor U.S. economic data, presumably to an eventual recovery. This only will work as long as an economic rebound in the not-too-distant future can be reasonabaly anticipated. The immediate focus is on the massive fiscal stimulus programs in the U.S. and elsewhere.
- This week sees little in the way of economic data, so the price action should be dominated by flows.
- We continue to closely monitor bond prices and the 2-yr U.S. minus E-Z spread. It stands at is -122bps -9bps. A turn in the U.S. economy will show up early in a weakening of U.S. bond prices. They are softer again today. E-Z bond prices are lower as well.
- See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude
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