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Monday December 8, 2008 - 11:01:01 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis Pre- N.Y. open Anaysis Thread
Pre-New York Open
- Simply because it has been working, forex markets are following the lead of equities to start the new week. Asian equity indices surged today and European bourses are up sharply at this hour. The early call for the open of U.S. equities is for higher. This all comes on the heels of the strong close Friday of U.S. shares despite a much weaker than expected November employment report.
- It follows that the USD is weaker vs. Europe and that the JPY has eased, but they are still highly sensitive to equity prices. The volatile commodity currencies are firmer. Gold is up.
- The markets are looking beyond poor U.S. economic data, presumably to an eventual recovery. This only will work as long as an economic rebound in the not-too-distant future can be reasonabaly anticipated. The immediate focus is on the massive fiscal stimulus programs in the U.S. and elsewhere.
- This week sees little in the way of economic data, so the price action should be dominated by flows.
- We continue to closely monitor bond prices and the 2-yr U.S. minus E-Z spread. It stands at is -122bps -9bps. A turn in the U.S. economy will show up early in a weakening of U.S. bond prices. They are softer again today. E-Z bond prices are lower as well.
- See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
Mon 19 Mar 2018
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Tue 20 Mar 2018
AA 9:30 GB- CPI
A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 21 Mar 2018
AA 03:00 AU- Employment
AA 9:30 GB- Employment
A 12:30 US- Current Account
AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A A 18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision
A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision
Thu 22 Mar 2018
AA All Day flash PMIs
AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales
AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 23 Mar 2018
AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- Durable Goods
A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
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