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Monday December 8, 2008 - 11:16:34 GMT
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Forex Blog - European market Update: European equity markets firmer on increased risk appetite spurred by Obama infrastructure plan, potential US auto bailou

Today 06:09am

European market Update: European equity markets firmer on increased risk appetite spurred by Obama infrastructure plan, potential US auto bailout


- (FI) Finland Q3 GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 2.2%e

- (CZ) Czech Oct Trade Balance (CZK): -4.0B v 7.0Be

- (CZ) Czech Nov CPI M/M: -0.5 % v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 4.4% v 4.6%e

- (CZ) Czech Nov Unemployment Rate: 5.3% v 5.3%

- (UK) Nov PPI Input M/M: -3.3% v -3.0%e; Y/Y: 7.5% v 6.5%e

- (UK) Nov PPI Output M/M: -0.7% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: 5.1% v 5.2%e

- (UK) Nov PPI Core M/M: 0.2% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 5.1% v 4.4%e

- (EU) Dec Sentix Investor Confidence: -42.3 v -40.0e

- (GE) German Oct Industrial Production M/M: -2.1% v -1.9%e; Y/Y: -3.8% v -3.6%e


- In equities: Biomerieux [BIM.FR] Announced acquisition of PML Microbiologicals. The financial terms were not disclosed , but PML has around 200 employees and 2007 Sales of $24M || Air Berlin [AB1.GE] Reported Nov Load Factor 72.6% v 72% y/y while its passengers count was 1.94M v 2.06M y/y || WAGN.UK: UK press reported that firm failed to receive interim funding from credit sources and to enter administration within days || Premeir Foods [PFD.UK] UK press reported that Heinz has shown interest in the company's Sharwood line of cooking sauces || Tecnip [TEC.FR] Received €140M order for the construction of flexible pipelines from Aker || FT Deitscheland reports that Seimens {SIE.GE] is looking to pursue large acquisitions and seeks to ask its shareholders in late Jan to approve an issue of up to 173.6M new shares to increase reserve capital || Jetix Europe [JETIX.NV] Disney acquires all outstanding shares for €11/shr || Micro Focus [MCRO.UK] to Acquire Relativity Technologies, Inc for $9.7M in cash || Yara Intl [YAR.NO] Suspended its Ammonia production in Billingham adding that the facility would restart production when demand returned to international market. Firm is investing €60M in Siilinjariv phosphate facility, aiming to bring capacity to 1M tons/yr || Antisoma [ASM.UK] Announced positive interim data from AS1411 phase II trial in acute myeloid leukemia || Entertainment Rights [ERT.UK] Appointed Deborah Dugan new CEO, effective immediately. Company also will reduced its workforce by 50 positions (31.4% of workforce) || Ssab [SSABA.SW] To reduce costs by SEK1B annually and 1.3K positions (14% of workforce); citing drop significant drop in steel demand since fall || Carphone Warehouse [CPW.UK Co-founder Ross to leave company; no intention to sell shares ( Ross holds 19.4% of its shares) || Arcelor Mittal [MTP.FR] Reportedly to cut 1.5K jobs in Germany

- Speakers: Fed's Rosengren : Interest rate policy options are increasingly limited, new policies required to stimulate economy, Fed has other tools to utilize. After successive rate cuts there is little room to move in monetary policy adding that fiscal stimulus was needed . he stated that Q4 economic activity in US would be weaker than Q3 and commented further that holiday spending to be weaker than expected coupled with further weakness in labor markets . Sees 'precipitous' drop in consumer spending and investment. Lastly despite some easing, the short term money markets remain strained. || ECB's Gonzalez -Paramo stated that a worsening of global financial market crisis was likely and cannot exclude more easing in monetary policy . noted that both Euro-Zone and Spain are currently in recession. Economic recovery to be slow and moderate but added that growth to return in 2010. Financial measures real impact to lag at least 2 years. Underlying domestic inflation pressures still remain and reiterated that ECB cannot lose control over inflation || ECB's Orphanides stated that remains room for monetary policy maneuver || Riksbank Dep Gov: Inflation to drops significantly and undershoot 2009 target. He added that there was an unexpectedly rapid decline seen in economy since Oct || ECB's Nowotny stated that the ECB would not be pressured on its interest rate policy by the markets. The Central Bank is cautious with rate cuts. Favors steady hand tactic in its policy; last weeks rate cut was a relatively big step. He noted that money markets are normalizing. Economic growth risks remain tilted towards the downside but no deflationary risks in eurozone || ZEW's Franz: Risk of credit crunch seen in Germany || Denmark Economic Affairs Min stated that the country would inject capital into domestic banking system but not see control of banks || ECB Tumpell-Gugerell noted that forecasts of any EMU failure were misguided but that the EU was currently experiencing a tough economic period. The use of the Euro was becoming more widespread and that ECB would stand up to the challenges and maintain its price stability objective. Lastly reiterated view that global finanical market crisis is the worst since 1930's

- In Currencies: The session was marked by retracement in the USD and JPY related pairs as global equity markets rebound sharply. Risk appetite increased during the European morning aided by continued chatter that a deal for the US automakers. Also Expansive "new deal"-type fiscal stimulus plan unveiled by President-elect Obama on Saturday has helped reinforce investor optimism over the likelihood of an potential equity market bounce. Risk appetite growing this session as a result || Outgoing BOE member Gieve noted that a more international coordination of macro-economic policy is needed. || Dealer chatter circulating that the ubs[UBSN.SZ bailout with the Swiss Government and the SNB for CHF 6B settles this week ||

-In Fixed Income: A correction in short end yields has given a flattening bias to curves in Europe and Britain in early morning trading . The 2y Schatz is up over 14bps at 2.19%, whilst the 2y Gilt is up 11bps and approaching 2% at 1.95%. Despite fixed income being generally sold across the board, a mid morning rally in the Mar Euribor contract (up 3 ticks at 96.59) was attributed to comments from the ECB's Nowotny, who stated that the ECB could cut its deposit rate further. Despite cutting the rate to 2.00% last week, the ECB said banks had parked €250B in its overnight deposit facility on Sunday ||German press noting that Germany could seek to establish a way for the state to guarantee the lending of credit between banks through the Bundesbank or the KfW state bank || China's Ministry of Finance is proposing a 2009 fiscal budget deficit of CNY280B v CNY180B in 2008 according to Chinese press reports ||

- In Energy: Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi said that US oil demand was down about 1M barrels/day and added that the decline in oil use was temporary. Naimi defended OPEC's decision to cut its output target by 1.5M barrels/day from Nov 1. ||Australian Pipeline [APA.AU] Stated that its A$170M Bonaparte pipeline was operational. This project is a JV with Italy's ENI production facility || Santos [STO.AU] Reported that chatter of a China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) takeover bid was pure speculation but added it was considering potential initiatives. || Imperial Energy [IEC.UK] ONGC had considered renegotiating the $2.6B proposal for the company according to UK press || Russian Energy Min: Guiding oil output at 530M tons annually by 2030 || Hess [HES] Announced a $3.2B capital and exploratory expenditure program for 2009. Approximately $3.1B is targeted for Exploration and Production, with $1.4B for production, $900M for developments and $800M for exploration. || IEA Chief Tanaka noted that the Economic stimulus should be spent on energy projects and called for 20 different carbon-capture projects worldwide||

- Credit Crisis: WSJ reported that federal securities regulators would not suspend mark-to-market accounting rules but rather the SEC would discuss ways to refine the rule's application. A study on mark-to-market accounting ordered up by Congress as part of the bailout bill and the results are expected to be released on Jan 2 || Ford, GM and Chrysler are seeking C$6B in emergency funding from Ottawa and Ontario- Canadian press ||

*** NOTES ***

Global equity markets were firmer on Monday. Traders were unsure exactly how much of the strength was due to short covering and how much was the start of a pre-holiday trend ahead of the calendar year-end. Traders noting that the shocker of a weak US non-farm payroll number likely suggests that bad news finally fully-priced into the price action. None-the-less a degree of risk appetite re-emerged in the session as the USD and JPY related pairs resumed their inverse relationship with equity price movements.

- 8:15 (CA) Canadian Nov Housing Starts : Consensus expectations are 192.0k; theprior number was 211.8k

- 7:00 (BE) ECB's Quaden to provide Belgian economic forecasts

- 9:00 (EU) ECB's Trichet to speak at European Parliament



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