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Monday December 20, 2004 - 10:15:23 GMT
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FOREX: US OPEN MARKET POINTS 12-20-04

Euro Rallies as IMM Specs go Short

On Friday the IMM data showed a massive decrease of euro bullish positions, so naturally tonight the unit rallied. According to IMM report euro longs collapsed from a build of 53K contracts just the week ago to –5K contracts – the first time positions have been net short since the early 2000. The huge move was also the largest one week liquidation in the history of the contract. Our own proprietary SSI index remains in neutral territory as most retail traders split opinion.

Aside from the fact that market may be leaning too strongly to dollar longs, dealers were sighting the delayed reaction to the positive IFO numbers on Friday as well as renewed geo-political troubles in Iraq as reasons for euro strength. The bombings over week-end in Iraq, which appear to come with depressing regularity, generated safe haven demand flows into the Swiss franc which trading as the mirror opposite of the EUR/USD may have forced dealers to push up the euro in order to keep the EUR/CHF cross in alignment.

Despite the jockeying for position, we continue to adhere to our view that the pair will remain range-bound for the rest of the year. Today’s LEI data out of the US which is expected to be positive for the first time in 5 months may offer support to USD bulls argument that US economy has decisively left the “soft-patch” behind. However, if geo-political conflicts flare up during the holidays, euro bull will have little trouble in pushing the pair above the record 1.3500 level in increasingly thin choppy markets.


FX Spot Overnight

- EUR rises to 3370 as safe haven flows into Swissie drives it up
- JPY comatose at 104.20
- GBP challenges 9500 though data hardly bullish
- CHF breaks 1500 as Iraqi violence drives safe haven demand
-
Upcoming Events

- 13:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) CAD Wholesale Sales m/m (Oct) Expected -0.2%, Previous -1.9%
- 15:00GMT – (10:00 AM EST) USD Leading Indicators (Nov) Expected 0.1%, Previous -0.3%

 

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13:30 US- Current Account
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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
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13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
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Mon 25 Dec
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