once again were impressive, the S&P500 posting a 3% gain at time of writing.
With no US data
released, the move was likely driven by the stimulatory package Barack Obama
started unveiling over the weekend. All the major European and Asian bourses
gained, the DAX and CAC leading the way at +8% and +9%, respectively. Commodities
also took heart, Brent crude oil recovering USD 2 to $41, and gold adding $14
The NZD jumped to a
6-day high of around 0.5475 at the start of the European session, and has more
or less held that area, currently 0.5440. The break above the key 0.54 level,
and holding those gains, suggests global markets are more willing to assume
risk since the weekend.
The AUD also broke
to a high not seen since mid-November, almost touching 67 cents. It
outperformed the NZD early, reaching 1.2290 area which was last seen in September
higher at the European opening, first to 1.2920, followed by another push
during New York hours to
around 1.2955. Previous resistance of 1.3080 will be watched closely this week.
Weak European data was ignored: European investor sentiment, German industrial
production, and UK producer
prices all fell sharply. The
weakened against the USD to around 93.90, amid the global optimism, but has returned
to its 92.50 â€“ 93 recent range.
data to report.
current account surplus showed a largely seasonal narrowing to Â¥961bn from
Â¥1,498bn. This included the trade surplus Â¥146bn, in line with themerchandise
trade data, offset by deficits in services and transfers. A Â¥1,209bnincome
surplus was responsible for most of the net current account surplus. Octdata showed
exports down 7.3%yr on the global downturn, while imports growthmoderated to
8.3%yr from 33.4%yr the month. The â€“Â¥117bn in net transfers, andthe services
balance at â€“Â¥278bn continued within their recent range.
investor sentiment continued to fall in Dec, dropping from â€“36.4 to â€“42.3 a
new record low for the six year old survey. The survey was conducted late last
week, so the latest news on US jobs and the ECBâ€™s rate cut would have been at the
forefront of investorsâ€™ minds.
industrial production drops 2.1% in Oct. The collapse in orders in both September
and October is now showing up in sharply weaker output. Annual growth of â€“3.8%
yr is the lowest in more than six years.
producer prices decelerating sharply. Despite some back revisions which saw the
annual rates revised higher, both input and output price inflation continued to
slow sharply, with input prices dropping from 15.4% yr to 7.5% yr and output
prices down from 6.7% yr to 5.1% yr. The exception was core output prices which
edged up from 5.0% yr to 5.1% yr. But the overwhelming message is that
pressures on retail prices from the factory sector are diminishing rapidly.
housing starts drop 18.8% in Nov. The fall was led by multiples down 29% but
single family starts fell 9%, their third consecutive decline, so the underlying
story is one of weakening activity in the sector.
convincing upwards break of 0.54, when combined with the widespread rallies in
equities and commodities last night, points to a decline in risk aversion for
the day ahead. Support today should be 0.54, the currency trading with a firm
tone towards 0.5590.
Release Last Forecast
Aus Nov NAB
Business Survey â€“11 â€“
Stevens Speaks â€“ â€“
IBD-TIPP Economic Optimism 50.8 45.0
Home Sales â€“4.6% â€“3.5%
Jpn Q3 GDP
%qtr â€“0.1% â€“0.2%
Tool Orders %yr -40.0% â€“
Ger Dec ZEW
Economic Sentiment â€“53.5 â€“60.0
UK Nov BRC
Retail Monitor %yr â€“2.2% â€“3.0%
House Price Net Balance % â€“82% â€“85%
Visible Trade Balance Â£bn â€“7.5 â€“7.5
Industrial Production â€“0.2% â€“0.4%
Prices %yr â€“5.1% â€“6.5%
Can Bank of Canada Rate
Decision 2.25% 1.75%
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (8 December)
â€¢ RBNZ MPS
Review (4 December)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (1 December)
â€¢ RBNZ MPS
Preview (28 November)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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