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Monday December 8, 2008 - 20:48:28 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Pre-Far East Open for December 9, 2008
Pre-Far East Open
- As expected, forex markets continue to follow the lead of equities. Asian equity indices surged today and European bourses ended up sharply at this hour. U.S. equities look to be closing higher. Odds a partial bailout deal for the auto industry is probable has been constructive.
- This year has seen the feared seasonal October selloff, and now a Santa Claus rally could be underway. This would be bad news for the USD into yearend. A weak USD at yearend is another seasonal pattern.
- It follows that the USD is weaker vs. Europe and that the JPY is steady, as they are still highly sensitive to equity prices. The volatile commodity currencies are firmer. Gold and oil are up.
- One woory we have is that the markets are looking beyond poor U.S. economic data, presumably to an eventual recovery. This only will work as long as an economic rebound in the not-too-distant future can be reasonabaly anticipated. The immediate focus is on the massive fiscal stimulus programs in the U.S. and elsewhere.
- This week sees little in the way of economic data, so the price action should be dominated by flows.
- We continue to closely monitor bond prices and the 2-yr U.S. minus E-Z spread. It stands at is -132bps -20bps. A turn in the U.S. economy will show up early in a weakening of U.S. bond prices. They are softer again today. E-Z bond prices are lower as well.
- See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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