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Monday December 8, 2008 - 20:48:28 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Pre-Far East Open for December 9, 2008
Pre-Far East Open
- As expected, forex markets continue to follow the lead of equities. Asian equity indices surged today and European bourses ended up sharply at this hour. U.S. equities look to be closing higher. Odds a partial bailout deal for the auto industry is probable has been constructive.
- This year has seen the feared seasonal October selloff, and now a Santa Claus rally could be underway. This would be bad news for the USD into yearend. A weak USD at yearend is another seasonal pattern.
- It follows that the USD is weaker vs. Europe and that the JPY is steady, as they are still highly sensitive to equity prices. The volatile commodity currencies are firmer. Gold and oil are up.
- One woory we have is that the markets are looking beyond poor U.S. economic data, presumably to an eventual recovery. This only will work as long as an economic rebound in the not-too-distant future can be reasonabaly anticipated. The immediate focus is on the massive fiscal stimulus programs in the U.S. and elsewhere.
- This week sees little in the way of economic data, so the price action should be dominated by flows.
- We continue to closely monitor bond prices and the 2-yr U.S. minus E-Z spread. It stands at is -132bps -20bps. A turn in the U.S. economy will show up early in a weakening of U.S. bond prices. They are softer again today. E-Z bond prices are lower as well.
- See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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