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Forex Blog - European market Update: ZEW economists appropriately warned against over interpreting the improvement in sentiment

Today 05:49am

European market Update: ZEW economists appropriately warned against over interpreting the improvement in sentiment


- (CH) China Nov CPI seen rising below 3% v 3.3%e - Official (unconfirmed)

- (JP) Nov Preliminary Machine Tool Orders: -62.2% v -40.0% prior

- (SZ) Swiss Nov Unemployment rate: 2.7% v 2.7%e; Seasonally Adj: 2.7% v 2.6%e

- (GE) German Oct Trade Balance: €16.4B v €14Be; Current Account: €15.0B v €14Be

- (GE) German Oct Imports: -3.5% v -2.7%e; Exports: -0.5% v -1.1%e

- (FR) French Oct Trade Balance: -€7.1B v -€5.7Be; Central Government Balance: -€60.1B v -€56.6B prior

- (HU) Hungarian Oct Prelim Trade Balance: deficit HUF76.5M v Surplus HUF30.0Me

- (HU) Hungarian Q3 Final GDP Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8% prior

- (SW) Swedish Nov CPI Level: 303.06 v 303.33e;

- (SW) Swedish Nov CPI - Headline Rate M/M: -0.8% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.7%

- (SW) Swedish Nov CPI - Underlying Inflation M/M: -0.5% -0.4%; Y/Y: 1.6% v 2.0%e

- (UK) Oct Visible Trade Balance: -£7.8B v -£7.5Be; Trade Balance non EU: -£4.4B v -£4.6Be; total trade balance -£3.9B v -£4.0Be

- (UK) Oct Industrial Production M/M: -1.7% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: -5.2% v -3.2%e;

- (UK) Oct Manufacturing Production M/M: -1.4% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: -4.9% v -3.2%e

- (UK) Oct DCLG UK House Prices: -7.4% v -6.5%e

- UK CML: Oct UK Mortgage approvals Y/Y: -52%

- (GE) Dec German ZEW Survey - Econ Sentiment: -45.2 v -57.0e; Current situation: -64.5 v -60e;

- (EU) Dec Euro-Zone Economic Sentiment: -46.1 v -59.0e


- In equities: Sony [SNE] Cutting investment in electronic business by 30% and announced a workforce reduction of 8K positions (4% of workforce) . It would be reducing facilities by 10% by March 2009 || Natixis [KN.FR] The company could cut its investment bank staff by close to 15% according to French press reports || Q-Cells [QCE.GE] Lowered its growth forecast for 2008. the firm revised its guidance for 2009 and now sees revenues in a range of €1.75-2.25B v €2.25B previous (Provided back on Nov 13th) || Land of leather [LAN.UK] Stated that its acquisition talks with potential bidders have been terminated|| Vodafone [VOD.UK] Agreed to purchase Wayfinder Systems for approximately SEK239M (SEK12 per share). It planned to finance deal with available cash resources || Ashtead [AHT.UK] Reported Q2 EBITDA £100.3M versus estimates of £111.0M.. Revenues were £287M slightly above estimates of £283.0M. || Southern Cross [SCHE.UK] Reported FY08 Pretax £4.9M below consensus estimates of £53.2M. Revenues of £869.4M fell below expectations of £897.98Me. The firm added ot would not pay a final dividend and guided occupancy rates inline with 2007. Thus 2008 has been a 'difficult year'. || Micro Focus [MCRO.UK] Reported H1 of Net $31.7M below expectations of $35.6Me. Revenues $136.6M versus $133.0M estimates. Trading outlook remained'in line' with the expectations of the firm || Greggs [GRG.UK] Reported 25-week SSS +3.8% y/y. it noted it was closing Belgium operations and expected charge of £3.5M || Northgate [NTG.UK] Reported H1 Net of £18.4M compared to year-ago levels of £33.8M. It Pretax £23.9M was below estimate of £27.8M while revenues were £309.6M versus £298M estimates || Fortis [FORB.BE] Stated that it has enough capital to cover outstanding debts and its position would not change on the redemption date || Aer Lingus [AERL.UK] CEO noted that the company could revise its FY09 earnings to reflect cost savings plan. Added that there was no need to merge with Ryanair || Hong Kong authorities report its first suspected H5 Bird flu outbreak on farm. If confirmed it would be the first reported case in 6 years ||

- Speakers: Australian RBA Governor Stevens stated that central bank has the scope to cut rates further and added that China economy was slowing faster than expected (could could be below the 8% level). The Impact of recent interest rate cuts would take time, but rate cuts and stimulus would make a significant difference . He commented that the biggest Australian trade boom in 50yrs was over and that both consumers and businesses were suffering a “crisis of confidence” . Lastly he added that Australian banks are in better shape than their overseas peers || ECB's Nowotny stated that the 2.5% level does not need to be the 'last word' on interest rates. He added that the EUR appreciation against USD wass possible but recent FX moves are positive for Europe. He reiterated the view that deflation was not a threat in Euro-zone He stated that the recent economic decline was comparable to 1993 recession but comparisons to 1930s was an exaggeration. ECB has tried to keep leeway to lower interest rates but added that the ECB was more cautious than other central banks. Cheaper commodities and lower oil prices have dampened inflation. Lastly the inverted yield curve "poison" for the economy and banks

|| ECB's Liikanen: World economic outlook has rapidly 'deteriorated' and saw uncertainty in growth outlook. He added that continued downside growth risks remain and that the financial crisis was worse than expected. It was difficult to assess impact of financial crisis and that the impact of stabilization steps still unknown. Noted that economic policy cannot prevent downturns in the cycle but that the EuroZone price stability view was improving ||ECB's Trichet reiterated that Maastrichet stability pact rules are respected and added that those who have room for fiscal policy should use it to overcome difficult times || Polish Central banker Poland Central Bank Skrzypek noted that radical rate cuts are not being considered for Dec decision || Polish Central banker Filar stated that he would prefer interest rate cut in January rather than December || The IATA stated that global airlines could post a combined loss of $2.5B in 2009 and that airline passenger traffic could fall by 3%next year (would be first decline since 2001). It added that airlines in all regions except US would post wider losses in 2009 || German ZEW noted that the economic data released today that Improvements in data shows limited worries about worsening recession next year. However ZEW noted that the Expectations component remained well below historical average. The Zew noted that interest rate cuts and State aid should help increase economic growth || ZEW's Schmidt stated that the economic situation could still worsen and added that investors believe that additional ECB rate cuts are needed. The German government stimulus only the first step and noted that he believed consumption to remain weak || ZEW's Franz stated that the German Government should launch an infrastructure stimulus plan. He stated that consumption vouchers would not make a significant impact and added there was great uncertainty about the economic cycle || ZEW's Schroeder commented that the survey results should not be misinterpreted, expectations are still firmly in negative territory. Low point to be reached in mid 2009 ||German Court found that limitations to tax subsidy are unconstitutional regarding commuter tax schemes. Government may have to reinstate certain tax subsidy programs ||

- In Currencies: The USD held a steady tone in Europe this morning but there was an overall firmer tone to the JPY .The UK. data was broadly weaker with both Manufacturing production and Industrial production coming in below expectations. Dealer noting that the data would likely reinforced bearish sentiment in GBP-related pairs. GBP/USD at 1.4810 (off 60 pips from opening levels in Asia, while GBP/JPY fell by 120 pips to just above the 137 figure.

-In Fixed Income: UK DMO to sold£1.25B 1.25% 2032 linkers with an average yield of 1.50% and a bid-to-cover of 1.58 times. || Germany Confirmed sale of €7.0B in new 2.25% note on Dec 10th

- In Energy: Angolan Oil Min noted that the prospects for development in 2009 remained unfavorable. The country would be affected by macro volatility and the international price of oil || China Petrochemical Sinopec [SNP] Increased its proven oil and gas reserves by 16% in 2008 . The company added 135M metric tons of proven reserves at the Tahe field, which increased the accumulative deposits to 996M tons.

in the papers: UK Telegraph reports on the dramatic decline in UK lending in H1 2008. Article noted that foreign lending by UK banks fell by £884B, equal to 81% of the entire contraction in global lending, as banks engage in deleveraging and reduce their risk profiles. Cross-border loans worldwide fell by $1.1 trillion (£740bn) in the first half of the year.

*** NOTES ***

The job cuts announced by Sony [SNE] highlights the slump in consumer spending at a time when companies typically prepare for the peak Christmas shopping season. As for Christmas dealers pondering whether the “Santa Claus rally” has begun in the equity markets. This week sees little in the way of key U.S. economic data thus traders suggesting that price action is likely to be dominated by flows. Equity market watchers noted that the VIX closed below the 55-day moving average. The German ZEW was mildly 'better' than expectations, and the ZEW economists appropriately warned against over interpreting the improvement in sentiment this month in the current batch of data. UK data continues to come in below expectations.

Looking Ahead:

- 9:00 (CA) Bank of Canada Rate : Consensus expectations are for a 50bps cut to 1.75%; Current overnight rate is 2.25%

- 9:30 (UK) BoE's Sentence to speak in London

- 10 :00 (MX) Mexican Nov CPI : M/M consensus expectations are 1.12%; The prior number was 0.68%; Y/Y consensus expectations are 6.22%; The prior number was 5.78%. Consumer Prices Core: Consensus expectations are 0.49%; The prior number was 0.31%

- 10:00 (US) Dec IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: Consensus expectations are 45.0; The prior number was 50.8

- 10 :00 (US) Oct Pending Home Sales M/M: Consensus expectations are -3.0%; The prior number was -4.6%



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