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Tuesday December 9, 2008 - 19:56:07 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Far East Open for December 10, 2008
Pre-Far East Open
- The Bank of Canada -75bp rate cut to 1.50% early Tuesday caused a bit of a stir Tuesday. Reviews of the bank‚Äôs policy statement were mixed, with additional rate cuts not explicitly signaled, however its tone was dovish. This week sees little in the way of key U.S. economic data, so the price action should be dominated by flows.
- Trade in the EUR/USD continues to be heavily influenced by swings in equity prices, although the linkage of the markets is not as tight as it once was.
- Asian equity indices closed mixed today and European bourses improved. U.S. equities look to be closing weaker later on a correction of recent gains.
- This year already saw a seasonal October equity selloff as equity managers closed their fiscal years, and now the ‚ÄúSanta Claus rally‚ÄĚ could be underway as those with bonuses put their money to work. This would be bad news for the USD into yearend. A weak USD at yearend is another typical seasonal pattern.
- Today the USD is higher vs. Europe. The EUR is about steady. The JPY is firmer. The volatile commodity currencies are weaker. Gold and oil are about steady.
- Another key development was a treasury bill auction which blew off the doors. Strong demand for the one month bill drove yields virtually to 0%. The 2-yr U.S. minus E-Z spread stands at -141bps -6bps. U.S. bond prices are sharpply higher while E-Z bond prices ended weak.
- See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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