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Monday December 20, 2004 - 12:44:52 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts - Evening - 20/12/04.......1129 GMT

$-Yen @ 104.34/8....Ranged? Maybe so
-------------------------------------
R: 104.71 / 105.02
S: 104.36-27 / 104.07
Crucial Resistance for today at 104.63-71. The market can turn bullish in case of a credible break thereof. But lack of upward momentum does not give confidence. For today, we may see a range of 104.00/65.


Euro-Yen @ 139.55/60....Fresh bullishness?
----------------------------------------------
R: 139.70-90 / 140.16-22
S: 139.18 / 138.75 / 138.47-28
Trading near the day's projected high at 139.46. As the Cross has moved past 139.40, We could be on the verge of a new upleg in the Cross. Friday's dip to 138.31 could be a classical reversion to Triangle Breakout Top on the Daily/ Weekly charts. The implications of such a reading are of near gigantic proportions because it suggests an upmove to at least 145. We can now take 138.47-28 as a credible Support in the Cross on the Daily.Immediate Support at 139.18

Possibly the Cross may need to spend some time moving up and down between 139-140 in order to form a base from where the upmove towards 145 can take place.

A corollary.....if $-Yen is likely to be ranged and the Cross is bullish, then the Euro must be very bullish too.

Trade:
Buy EUR 20K at current level, SL 139.10, TP open


Euro @ 1.3371/4....Resistance at 1.3420? Or mirage
---------------------------------------------------
R: 1.3389 / 1.3413 / 1.3471-96
S: 1.3333-28 / 1.3312-1.3293 / 1.3287-61
Strong rise in the Euro today, which rose against the Pound also (apart from the Yen). There may be some more room on the upside today to 1.3415-20. While that holds, the Euro may be said to be ranged between 1.3420 and 1.3240. But, if and when the 1.3420 Resistance breaks, we may be on the way up towards 1.36. In the morning we said the the Euro would probably be ranged between 1.3400-3250 this week, so we'll go with that reading for now, unless proved incorrect.


$-Swiss @ 1.1491/6....Dip to 1.1430-20?
-----------------------------------------------
R: 1.1501-11 / 1.1530 / 1.1552-58
S: 1.1471 / 1.1429 / 1.1387ncy
Euro-Swiss has fallen today, making the Swiss Franc the strongest currency for the day. As we know, the Swiss Franc is capable of some very discrete (disjointed) movements, which can be seen in the 4-hourly chart today. The statistically projected Low for the day is near 1.1429, so its possible to see a good bounce from near there.

Although we will not trade it, you might want to consider buying at 1.1436 with a SL at 1.1370 and a TP near 1.1530


Cable @ 1.9459/64....Buy if there's a dip
-------------------------------------------
R: 1.9492-1.9511 / 1.9543-58 / 1.9589
S: 1.9420 / 1.9389 / 1.9354-34
We are glad to have seen a very decent profit (at 1.9482 and 1.9500) on our Longs at 1.9370 and 1.9320 and have to thank the market for its magnanimity. If our thesis of an enventual rise to 1.99 be correct, a fresh Long may be attempted near 1.9420 with a SL below 1.9380. Or, just in case there's a dip to 1.9340, that would be decent buying level too.

Order:
Buy GBP 15K at 1.9354, SL 1.9270, TP open





Happy Trading!

 

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