session was a game of two halves for currencies â€“ a weak start, driven by falls
in Asian equities and poor UK data,
followed by a recovery on the back of positive European equities and a large
buy-EUR order. The fickle behaviour was unsurprising, with no major US data to
provide direction (neighbour Canada cut rates
more than expected).
NZD was weak
after the NZ close, to the 0.5365 area, before recovering in the European session
to around 0.5450. Those gains have been reversed early this morning, the
currency settling around 0.54. Markets will watch the Q3 terms of trade at this morning, a 2.6% decline expected.
between weakness until early Europe, dipping
below 0.65, and then rising on optimism in Europe to almost
0.6650. It too, is currently soft after the EUR order. AUD/ NZD is stuck in a
wide 1.2050 to 1.2250 range. RBA Governor Stevens said last night there is
scope for further cuts, and Chinaâ€™s economy
is slowing faster than expected.
lacklustre until around Europe, inching
towards 1.28, when a concerted effort was made to breach a barrier option level
of 1.30. A better than expected German ZEW outlook helped the cause. JPY displayed
consistent strength throughout, and sits on the 92 level.
pending home sales down 0.7% in Oct. Pending home sales posted the first back to back
falls since February-March but remain off their lows. The regional breakdown
showed sales up 8% in the south but down 9% in the west suggesting that cheap
foreclosed property bargains are still being snapped up in some areas but
tightening finance conditions might be starting to choke off this â€śvultureâ€ť
consumer optimism gave back about half of its Nov jump in Dec, reflecting
an 8 pt fall in the economic outlook measure, a 9 pt decline in personal
finances, but steady sentiment towards federal policies (which jumped 6 pts in
November). That suggests that the Obama effect is still providing some support
to this confidence measure.
growth revised down. The 2nd preliminary estimate for Q3 GDP was revised
to -0.5%qtr from 1st preliminary estimate of -0.1%. Following -0.9%qtr in Q2,
this is the two negative quarters that are taken as a reflection of a
recession. The annual pace of growth has slipped to -0.5%yr from 0.7%yr in Q2.
Nonresidential fixed investment revised down to â€“2.0%qtr from -1.7%qtr in 1st
prelim GDP. This puts the annual pace for Q3 at -3.9%yr consistent with MoF
Capex survey which has reported -13%yr in Q3 after -6.5%yr in Q2. Private
consumption was unrevised at 0.3%qtr, 0.5%yr from 0.3%yr in Q2.
ZEW improves from â€“54 to â€“45 in Dec. In contrast to yesterdayâ€™s Sentix investor
sentiment report which showed investor confidence falling further, the ZEW survey
of 320 German investors showed a less pessimistic outlook, although the current
assessment deteriorated further.
data across the board. Although the proportion of surveyors
reporting house prices falling has eased back to just 3 in 4, the number of
sales reported was the lowest since 1978, when the survey began. The governmentâ€™s
(DCLG) house price measure also showed a further decline, to â€“8% yr. But the
big shock was 1.7% plunge in industrial production at the start of Q4, and
downward revisions to prior data. The BRC survey shows that consumer spending
continues to decelerate, and the trend in the trade deficit is flat, so little
hope for a surprise contribution from the external sector to growth. One BoE
policy committee member, Andrew Sentance, warned that the UK faced a
recession as deep as those seen in the dark days of the 70s and 80s.
Bank of Canada cut
its key rate 75bp to 1.5% at last nightâ€™s window, a steeper cut than
forecast though that seems par for the course for all central banks these days!
The statement was explicit: â€śWhile Canadaâ€™s economy
evolved largely as expected during the summer and early autumn, it is now
entering a recession as a result of the weakness in global economic activity...
The Bank will continue to monitor carefully economic and financial developments
in judging to what extent further monetary stimulus will be required to achieve
the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term.â€ť
is likely this morning, noting the weaker last few hours in the S&P500, and
a correction of Friday-Mondayâ€™s required. A range of 0.5350 to 0.5450, with a
drift towards the lower end, is our call today.
Release Last Forecast
NZ Q3 Terms
of Trade â€“0.5% â€“2.2%
House Prices %yr (10-17th) â€“4.3% â€“
Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment 85.5 â€“
Finance â€“2.7% 3.0%
Wholesale Inventories â€“0.1% â€“0.2%
Budget Balance $bn â€“193 â€“
Machine Orders %mth 5.5% â€“4.0%
Corp Goods Prices %yr 4.8% 2.8%
Labour Productivity â€“0.2% â€“
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (8 December)
â€˘ RBNZ MPS
Review (4 December)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (1 December)
â€˘ RBNZ MPS
Preview (28 November)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (24 November)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (17 November)
â€˘ NZ Q3
Retail Sales Review (13 November)
Economic Overview November 2008 (11 November)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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