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Wednesday December 10, 2008 - 11:05:46 GMT
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Forex Research - Euro, Pound Mildly Higher on Enthusiasm of US Auto Bailout

Euro, Pound Mildly Higher on Enthusiasm of US Auto Bailout Last Updated 12/10/2008 6:10:42 AM EST (GMT +5)

Top Stories

• US officials reach a tentative agreement on auto bailout deal

• Fed considering issuing its own debt

• T-bills go negative yield as liquidity demand at end of year floods the market

• AIG has 10B worth of trades gone bad – WSJ

• China’s PPI falls to 2.0% from 4.4% expected

• China’s Trade surplus rises to $40B+ in November as both exports and imports decline

• Equities firmer as Asia rallies off auto rescue news

• Oil steady at $43/bbl

• Gold at $785/oz steady

Overnight Eco

• NZD Overseas Trade Index -2,3% vs. -2.6% forecast

• AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment bounces to 7.5% from 4.3% prior

• JPY Core Machinery Orders sink -4.4% from -3.9% projected

• JPY CGPI in line at 2.8%


• AUD Home Loans rise 1.3% from 1.0% forecast

• EUR German WPI massive deflationary decline to -3.3% from -1.4% expected

• EUR French Industrial Production plummets -2.7% from -0.6% forecast

• CHF ZEW Economic Expectations ______

Event Risk on Tap

• CAD Labor Productivity

• USD Wholesale Inventories expected at -0.2%

• USD Federal Budget Balance expected at -176.0B

Price Action

• USD/JPY bounces to 92 as risk appetite improves

• AUD/USD runs all the way to 6640 as Asian markets rise but trades off highs into Europe

• GBP/USD follows euro higher to 1.4865 on option run knock out squeeze but returns to 1.4800 in spiky trade

• EUR/USD a run to knock out 1.3000 barrier fizzles as European equities settle down

Euro, Pound Mildly Higher on Enthusiasm of US Auto Bailout

The euro and pound were mildly higher in morning European trade after Asian investors rallied their stock markets on news that US authorities have reached a tentative deal on the bailout of the three automakers. The rally however lost much of its fizzle as European bourses did not follow through on Asian strength.

The EUR/USD ran to 1.3002 in very early European trade on attempt by specs to knock the 1.3000 option barriers. This is the 2nd time in the past twenty four hours that the pair attempted to break through that level, but tonight’s assault much like yesterday’s was quickly repelled and EUR/USD dropped to 1.2930 by 5:00 GMT. Part of the reason for the failure was the absolute lack of fundamental support. The few pieces of economic data from the region were horrid once again.

In Germany wholesale prices sunk -3.3% from -1.2% projected in no small part on sharply declining energy costs. The news however, removed any lingering inflationary concerns that the ECB may still harbor and opened the way for Mr. Trichet and company to lower rates further into 2009. As we’ve been noting lately with its 2.75% yield the euro remains one of the few “high yielders” left in the G-4 universe, but if ECB follows the rest of its colleagues towards ZIRP its small sliver interest rate advantage will soon be whittled away.

The euro was also hobbled by news of a dramatically worse than expected contraction in French Industrial Production which declined -2.7% vs. -0.6% projected and the lingering riots in Greece which have now expanded to include economic concerns rather than the mere protest over a police killing. Overall the picture on both sides of the Atlantic remains unremittingly bleak, but if risk appetite returns during the North American session currency traders may make a run for the 1.3000 level once again. For the time being the euro maintains its “high yield” status and therefore remains sensitive to risk flows.

FX Upcoming

Currency GMT EST Release Expected Prior

CAD 13:30 8:30 CAD Labor Productivity (QoQ) -0.2%

USD 15:00 10:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (OCT) -0.2% -0.1%

USD 19:00 2:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement (NOV) -176.0B -237.2B

About The Author

Schlossberg has more than 20 years experience financial trading on Wall Street. His daily currency research appears in numerous newspapers worldwide and Schlossberg serves as a regular contributor to CNBC's Squawk Box and Bloomberg radio and television. Read more >>

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. This forum and its information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision based upon this forum or any information contained within. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Boris will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Boris do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice. If such advice is sought, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.




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