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Wednesday December 10, 2008 - 16:40:36 GMT
Trade the News Staff - www.global-view.com/forex-services/TTN/

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Forex Blog - US Market Update

US Market Update

Dow +105 S&P +11 NASDAQ +23

- Trading in US equity indices is volatile this morning but all three of the leading indices remain well into positive territory. Front-month crude had been up more than $2 after
Russia promised to follow any OPEC production cuts with cuts of their own, but energy prices have since made a move to the downside after weekly petroleum inventory data. The Baltic Dry Bulk index moved higher for the third straight session, raising a glimmer of hope among traders that many of the dry bulk carrier stocks may have reached an attractive level. Feb gold futures as trading up substantially back above $800 for the first time since the first day of the month. Treasury futures are seeing some selling in the wake of strong stock markets but yields continue to struggle in finding any upside momentum.

- Oppenheimer's Meredith Whitney reiterated her cautious view for the banking industry before the open, and that has led to some relative weakness in the early going. Whitney again suggested that large banks are facing trouble for at least the next 18 to 36 months and will need to raise more capital, noting that she believes consumers will be the next "shoe to drop" in the financial crisis as credit lines get pulled. In 2009 to 2010 she sees banks pulling some $2T in credit lines. Wells Fargo is also lagging after Merrill Lynch cut WFC to neutral. Overnight the Wall Street Journal reported that AIG may owe some Wall Street firms $10B related to "speculative trades," noting that this amount is not covered by AIG's rescue agreement with the Fed. The debts stem from bets on derivatives linked to subprime mortgages and commercial real estate bonds. AIG later claimed that the Journal's revelations are “not new.”

- Another morning, another round of falling guidance and corporate restructuring. Before the open mining major Rio Tinto said it would cut 14K jobs, or about 30% of its workforce and reduce 2009 CAPEX to $4B (from $9B) to help it deal with the commodities slump. RTP hopes to reduce its net debt by $10B by end of next year, and is planning to divest “significant assets.” Yesterday evening Electronic Arts said its 2009 results would be below its prior guidance and announced layoffs, giving the lie to the old adage that videogames are recession proof. According to ERTS, the revised outlook is primarily the result of lower-than-expected sales in
North America and Europe. No fewer than eight firms cut targets or lowered outlook on the game maker overnight. Praxair also cut its outlook on the coming quarter last night and announced job cuts. Seagate lowers its revenue guidance for next quarter, noting it is accelerating plans to lower production capacity. A.O. Smith cut its full-year earnings guidance due to sluggish demand. Actuant slashed its Q1 and FY09 earnings and revenue views, noting it would likely cut production and jobs. In another sign of plunging international trade, DryShips cancelled a $400M purchase of four panamax drybulk vessels.

- In currencies, the European pairs were broadly firmer against the USD in the
New York morning, with the USD tone hampered by technical and fundamental factors, including renewed commodity strength. Dealers noted their surprise that the market did not react more energetically to China's first drop in exports in seven years. EUR/USD was probing above the 1.30 handle - dealers noted that euro buy stops are building above the 1.3050 area. FX chartists noting some favorable chart patterns above 1.3050 area that suggest a measured move towards the 1.34 neighborhood. Several FX analysts said that the repatriation in USD may be coming to end and that there could be a trend to the upside for EUR against USD and JPY. The German Economy Ministry stated it has no immediate plans to change the government GDP forecast, reiterating that it expects German GDP growth of 0.2% in 2009. In other currency news, the BoE's Blanchflower said that he would leave the MPC in May when his term expires. Blanchflower is the most dovish member on the MPC.

- European equity markets are in positive territories. Euro-Stoxx 50 +0.6% at 2,497; FTSE 100 Index +0.1% at 4,384; CAC 40 Index +0.8% at3,325 and DAX Index +1.0% at 4, 828. March Bunds +1 tick at 122.17 and March Gilts futures +3 ticks at 118. 32.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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