waned yesterday around the globe. The US car
industry rescue plan seems to have been tentatively agreed (voting late NY
afternoon), and commodity prices rose (oil +8%, gold +4%), these factors
moderately lifting equity markets in Asia, Europe, and the US, and in
turn, non-USD currencies.
opening the European session at a recent high of 0.55, the NZD softened to
around 0.5430 by , before
rallying again to that 0.55high. There have been 3
attempts to breach 0.55 during the past 24 hours,with more
attempts likely in todayâ€™s NZ session. Economic releases today,November
business PMI and food prices (), could
provide someinterest for the NZD, as may the Australian employment data.
AUD gyrated in a
narrow 0.6580 to 0.6640 range, and is testing the bottom of that at Wellington time, the US equity
indices slipping after their treasury announced a record November budget
deficit. Australian employment figures will be released at (Sydney time), and
should be the main driver of AUD direction for the day.
Around in Europe, the EUR broke above
1.30, and is poised to test the widely acknowledged key resistance level of
1.3080 resistance. Record low French industrial production data had negligible
effect. JPY weakened overnight, but has recouped those
losses this morning for a net zero change.
wholesale sales down 1.1% in Oct. The second monthly decline, but mostly due
to lower energy an food prices. Excluding these components, â€ścoreâ€ť wholesale
stocks were flat. That is still a soft outcome and adds to the weight of
evidence pointing to a very weak Q4 GDP growth outcome â€“ our advance forecast
is â€“6.0% annualised.
machinery orders drop 4.4% in October. The run of sharply weaker data
continues in Asia. October
machinery orders â€“ a guide to the short term outlook for capex â€“ dropped 4.4%
in October. Although this was only slightly weaker than the 3.8% fall that had
been expected, and followed a 5.5% rise in September, the headline figure
excludes overseas orders which reportedly slumped 37%; the biggest monthly fall
in five years.
labour productivity was unchanged in Q3, the sixth consecutive quarter
without a gain. Jobs growth/hours worked has been matching or exceeding
economic growth over that period.
industrial production collapsed 2.7% in October. Annual growth,
down 7.2% yr, is the weakest since current records began in the early 1980s.
Autos were especially weak in the latest report. Also Italian IP fell 1.2% in
Oct. These data confirm that the European economy â€śfell off a cliffâ€ť in the
on how the US equity markets
close this morning, and whether Australian employment figures surprise. Those
aside, the NZD has a slightly firm tone, and should test the top of the 0.5360
to 0.55 range today.
Release Last Forecast
NZ Nov Food
Prices â€“0.3% â€“
Employment Chg +34.3k â€“30k
Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.4%
Unemployt Expectations 13.2% â€“
Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.3% â€“
US Oct Trade
Balance $bn â€“56.5 â€“53.5
Prices â€“4.7% â€“5.0%
Jobless Claims w/e 6/12 509K 520K
Eur Dec ECB
Trade Balance C$bn 4.5 3.5
House Price Index 0.1% flat
â€˘ NZ Q3
Terms of Trade (10 December)
â€˘ NZ Agribiz
December 2008 (9 December)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (8 December)
â€˘ RBNZ MPS
Review (4 December)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (1 December)
â€˘ RBNZ MPS
Preview (28 November)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
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