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Wednesday December 10, 2008 - 20:16:36 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

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FX Research - Morning Report

Morning Report Thursday 11 December 2008

 

News and views

Pessimism waned yesterday around the globe. The US car industry rescue plan seems to have been tentatively agreed (voting late NY afternoon), and commodity prices rose (oil +8%, gold +4%), these factors moderately lifting equity markets in Asia, Europe, and the US, and in turn, non-USD currencies.

 

After opening the European session at a recent high of 0.55, the NZD softened to around 0.5430 by noon, before rallying again to that 0.55 high. There have been 3 attempts to breach 0.55 during the past 24 hours, with more attempts likely in today’s NZ session. Economic releases today, November business PMI and food prices (10:30am), could provide some interest for the NZD, as may the Australian employment data.

 

AUD gyrated in a narrow 0.6580 to 0.6640 range, and is testing the bottom of that at 8am Wellington time, the US equity indices slipping after their treasury announced a record November budget deficit. Australian employment figures will be released at 1:30pm (Sydney time), and should be the main driver of AUD direction for the day.

 

Around midday in Europe, the EUR broke above 1.30, and is poised to test the widely acknowledged key resistance level of 1.3080 resistance. Record low French industrial production data had negligible effect. JPY weakened overnight, but has recouped those losses this morning for a net zero change.

 

US wholesale sales down 1.1% in Oct. The second monthly decline, but mostly due to lower energy an food prices. Excluding these components, “core” wholesale stocks were flat. That is still a soft outcome and adds to the weight of evidence pointing to a very weak Q4 GDP growth outcome – our advance forecast is –6.0% annualised.

 

Japanese machinery orders drop 4.4% in October. The run of sharply weaker data continues in Asia. October machinery orders – a guide to the short term outlook for capex – dropped 4.4% in October. Although this was only slightly weaker than the 3.8% fall that had been expected, and followed a 5.5% rise in September, the headline figure excludes overseas orders which reportedly slumped 37%; the biggest monthly fall in five years.

 

Canadian labour productivity was unchanged in Q3, the sixth consecutive quarter without a gain. Jobs growth/hours worked has been matching or exceeding economic growth over that period.

 

French industrial production collapsed 2.7% in October. Annual growth, down 7.2% yr, is the weakest since current records began in the early 1980s. Autos were especially weak in the latest report. Also Italian IP fell 1.2% in Oct. These data confirm that the European economy “fell off a cliff” in the fourth quarter.

 

Outlook

Much depends on how the US equity markets close this morning, and whether Australian employment figures surprise. Those aside, the NZD has a slightly firm tone, and should test the top of the 0.5360 to 0.55 range today.

 

Events Today

Country Release Last Forecast

NZ Nov Food Prices –0.3% –

Aus Nov Employment Chg +34.3k –30k

Nov Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.4%

Dec WBC-MI Unemployt Expectations 13.2% –

Dec MI Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.3% –

US Oct Trade Balance $bn –56.5 –53.5

Nov Import Prices –4.7% –5.0%

Initial Jobless Claims w/e 6/12 509K 520K

Eur Dec ECB Monthly Report

Can Oct Trade Balance C$bn 4.5 3.5

Oct New House Price Index 0.1% flat

 

Latest Research Papers/Publications

• NZ Q3 Terms of Trade (10 December)

• NZ Agribiz December 2008 (9 December)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (8 December)

• RBNZ MPS Review (4 December)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (1 December)

• RBNZ MPS Preview (28 November)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac

Institutional Bank’s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)

 

 

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.

 

 

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15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
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12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
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EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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