Tuesday December 21, 2004 - 01:14:57 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 21st December 2004 Price: ... 1.1489
Resistance: 1.1520 ... 1.1550 ... 1.1575 ... 1.1602
Support....: 1.1475 ... 1.1456 ... 1.1435 ... 1.1392
Mixed - waiting for breaks
No early consolidation yesterday but a direct break lower although this has not been particularly convincing and failed to reach the favored 1.1435 support. There is a good chance therefore of seeing a move higher reach the 1.1507-20 area at least which should be observed. Any breach of 1.1520 signals a recovery to 1.1575-1.1602 but we would expect this higher area to hold. Further resistance is found at 1.1683.
Losses were seen in line with our overall view but failed to reach the 1.1435 favored target. This means we should be a little flexible but within a larger bearish scenario. We feel that a recovery is likely to 1.1507-20. Should this hold and losses break down below 1.1435-50 then we'd consider the downtrend is resuming. In that case the next support is around 1.1354-65 and then between the 1.1299 low and 1.1336.
Elliott Wave Comments:
December 17th 2004
The recovery from 1.1384 to 1.1620 was a perfect 61.8% projection of the prior Wave -a- rally. Thus this tends to imply a triangle structure and using the same projection ratio we would look for Wave -d- to reach the 1.1435 area. This should then spurn a reccovery in Wave -e- to complete the daily Wave -iv- and generate further downside to complete a Wave -v- lower.
December 20th 2004
The above still represents the ideal structure which we have in mind. The only doubts we have in our mind are the possibility of continued minor upward cyclic pressure from the red and green daily cycles. Still, even in this case we would expect the triangle to develop but this may well extend to develop a Wave x before a further ABC pattern higher to 1.1827. Thus we shall be observing the development of the anticipated triangle structure over the next few days to ensure that it matches with our expectations.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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