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Thursday December 11, 2008 - 20:39:00 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis Thread: December 12, 2008 Pre-Far East Open
Pre-Far East Open
- The U.S. auto bailout plan was passed by the House late Wednesday. At this point Senate passage of the bill as currently written is doubtful. Odds favor some sort of compromise solution, but that is not a sure bet. A vote by Friday is hoped for. Passage of a bill would be supportive of equities, and failure could hurt. Far Eastern bourses closed mostly higher. European exchanges closed lower and the current call for the U.S. closing is for sharply lower.
- U.S. weekly jobless claims released Thursday were exceptionally weak (+573K) and were a significant weight on the USD. Having the USD sell-off following weak data were a change from recent patterns. This is the most up to date economic barometer. More poor U.S. economic data are awaited on Friday. As expected, the SNB cut its target rate for 3mo CHF libor by 50bps to 0.50%.
- The volatile commodity currencies are sharply higher. Australian November employment fell by -15,600 to 4.4% pretty much as expected. Gold and oil are higher.
- Key data Friday include U.S. PPI data, retail sales and the university of Michigan sentiment index. See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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