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Forex Research - Dollar Yen Drops Through 90 As US Senate Rejects Auto Rescue

Dollar Yen Drops Through 90 As US Senate Rejects Auto Rescue Last Updated 12/12/2008 5:29:07 AM EST (GMT +5)

Top Stories

  • US Senate fails to pass auto bailout sending Asian stocks -4% lower
  • Yen touches 88.15 on risk aversion
  • EU may hammer out an agreement on climate change and stimulus plan of 1.5% of GDP
  • European equities follow Asia to the downside
  • Gold stalls at $80 but hoilds $800 $813 last
  • Oil at $46 last

Overnight Eco

  • NZD Retail Sales 0.8% as expected
  • JPY Revised Industrial Production -3.1% as expected
  • JPY Household Confidence 28.4 bit better than 28 forecast
  • EUR Industrial Production -1.2% worse than -1.0% forecast

Event Risk on Tap

  • CAD Capacity Utilization Rate expected at 78.3%
  • CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales expected at -0.5%
  • USD Retail Sales expected at -1.7%
  • USD PPI expected at -2.0%
  • USD Consumer Sentiment expected at 55.0
  • USD Business Inventories expected at -0.3%

Price Action

  • USD/JPY hits a low of 88.15 in the wake of bailout failure but rebounds above 90 in Euroepan trade
  • AUD/USD hurt badly by risk aversion and commodity collpase slipping back to the 6500 handle
  • GBP/USD slips below 1.4900 on further EURGBP strength but recovers in early London trade
  • EUR/USD drops below 1.3300 but also finds a bid as European traders reverse Asia losses

USD/JPY hit a 13 year low in Asian session trade today touching  88.15 after the US Senate failed to agree on a bailout package for the Big Three automakers. The news sent a wave of risk aversion flowing through the Asian equity markets as Nikkei tumbled more than 4%.  Meanwhile the commdollars were the biggest victims of the news in the currency market with Aussie and loonie plunging more than 200 points from yesterday’s close.

The specter of bankruptcy in the US automobile industry raised fears amongst global investors of  further decline in commodity demand and if the Big Three do indeed follow the path towards liquidation or consolidation the pressure on commdollars is likely to mount.  At this point it is far from clear what the outcome for the Detroit saga will be, but the growing uncertainty is sure to fuel further bouts of risk aversion, especially if the markets do not receive any additional updates from US officials during the North American session.

Therefore, despite the bounce off the lows, we expect yen to remain bid especially if it becomes increasing obvious to traders that the US automakers are heading for bankruptcy protection putting their massive debt obligations at risk to their many creditors. Another massive collapse in the credit crunch crisis would hardly be helpful to global capital markets, but for the moment policymakers appear to be unable to prevent this slow motion car wreck from imploding.

The pressure on US equities is likely to be compounded by the release of US Retail Sales figures which could disappoint to the downside given the horrid unemployment data form yesterday. Thus, unless the markets hear some soothing news in North American session, risk aversion is likely to intensify and USD/JPY 90 level could be tested once again as US traders get ready for the last working day of the week.      

FX Upcoming

Currency GMT EST Release Expected Prior
CAD 13:30 8:30 CAD Capacity Utilization Rate (3Q) 78.3% 78.9%
CAD 13:30 8:30 CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (OCT) -0.5% 2.5%
USD 13:30 8:30 USD Advance Retail Sales (NOV) -1.7% -2.8%
USD 13:30 8:30 USD Producer Price Index (MoM) (NOV) -2.0% -2.8%
USD 14:55 9:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence (DEC P) 55.0 55.3
USD 15:00 10:00 USD Business Inventories (OCT) -0.2%

About The Author

Schlossberg has more than 20 years experience financial trading on Wall Street. His daily currency research appears in numerous newspapers worldwide and Schlossberg serves as a regular contributor to CNBC's Squawk Box and Bloomberg radio and television. Read more >>

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. This forum and its information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision based upon this forum or any information contained within. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Boris Schlossberg will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Boris Schlossberg do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice. If such advice is sought, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.




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