- In equities: HBOS [HBOS.UK] Provided a trading update ahead of its
acquisition by Lloyds. HBOS guided FY08 YTD impairment charge of Â£3.3B. It
noted that it is operating in increasingly difficult conditions which have seen
corporate credit conditions continue to deteriorate significantly since
November. It estimated unsecured lending impairment of Â£1B, says in light of
the worsening economic climate, trends in Retail impairment charges are likely
to come under further pressure. Wholesale funding costs remain highand that its
exposure to monolines insurers was Â£1.1B at 30 Nov 2008 || Erste Bank [EBS.AS]
EBS.AS: Confirmed it FY08 forecast and added that they see a higher 2009
profit. It guided FY09 Op profit +10% y/y || Sportingbet [SBT.UK] Stated that
its trading was in line with prior expectations || Central African Mining
[CFM.UK] Received positive Initial Assay Results. It noted that 68 drill holes
have now been completed on Mukondo of which 11 have now been independently
assayed by Set Point Labs in Johannesburg, South
Africa || UBM [UBM.UK] Guided FY08 revenues
in line with expectations. It noted that it would cut 350 jobs in H2 of FY08
(5% of workforce). It added the company remained fully prepared to take
advantage of emerging opportunities to develop our business, both through
organic expansion and by acquisition || QMED [QMED.SW] Confirmed that Ivytan AB
SEK39/shr offer for firm has been withdrawn || Aggreko [AGK.UK] Q4 trading
remains strong with Rev +48% y/y || Charter [CHTR.UK] Stated that its
underlying earnings for 2008 are in line with expectations || Alcatel-Lucent
[ALU.FR] Sought to achieve â‚¬750M savings in Q4 and to lower breakeven by â‚¬1B.
It announce a reduction of 1K management jobs (1.3% of workforce) and 5K
contractors || Novartis [NOVN.SZ] Study showed that FTY720 had Superior
Efficacy To Interferon for multiple sclerosis || Mazda [7261.JP] Reportedly
would cut production by no less than 100K units in Japan . It likely to halt
production at its Hiroshima
facility for 2 days and suspending its night shift operations || Bayer [BAY.GE]
Healthcare and Crop Science units to achieve targets
- Have 50 projects in pharma pipeline,. Its 2008 R&D budget stands at
â‚¬2.8B. It noted that it had seen considerably weaker sales in materialscience
unit over the past two months. Growth to be achieved in 2008 and 2009 but
preparing further measure for slowdown such as temporary plant shutdowns ||
Coca Cola Hellenic Bottling [EEEK.GA] Named Robert Murray new CFO, effective
Jan 1, 2009
- Speakers: Japan formally announced its Â¥23T stimulus plan. It would set aside
funds in amount of Â¥12T for bank recapitalization, this is above the Â¥2T prior.
spend Â¥6T on "quality of life measures", Â¥13T on financial support
measures| ECB's Mersch noted that the ECB must preserve monetary policy's
effectiveness. He commented that the 175bps of rate cuts enacted from Oct have
been extraordinary but does not indicate any new rhythm to ECB's policy. Mersch
added that will do what is necessary in January and that the ECB does have room
to maneuver and is data driven. However, he reiterated view that ECB never
pre-commits to rate decision. Earlier in Asia ECB's Mersch noted that inflation
could decline below 2% in 2009 and reiterated that growth risks remained on the
downside and that the global economy to remain weak in coming quarters . He
commented that the lower inflation was due to drop in commodity and energy
prices. Financial market volatility could dampen global demand for extend time
and that uncertainty over global financial turmoil remained high ||Japanese Fin
Min Nakagawa reiterated G7 view that abrupt currency movements are undesirable.
Monitoring currency markets with great interest citing that abrupt FX moves
could have economic consequences. However. He did note in Asia that was not
considering currency intervention at this time but added watching markets with
great interest || EU agreed to implement its â‚¬200M stimulus plan, which is
around 1.5% of Euro-Zone GDP || Japan's MOF Shinohara (Top currency official):
Called the moves in JPY as too volatile and excessive and would take
appropriate action in currency market || Japan PM Aso stated that he hopedthe
BoJ could add liquidity to the market. The PM also stated that he sought to
raise consumption tax in three years || German Chancellor Merkel noted that Germany
could consider new stimulus measures ||
- In Currencies: Risk aversion was in full bloom ahead of the European morning
following the US Senate inaction on any potential US
auto bailout. The JPY exhibited strength in the aftermath of the Senate failure
to bring the auto bailout to a formal vote. USD/JPY tested 988.22 in late Asia
and EUR/JPY cross dipped to 117.55 area. The market encountered some consolidation
of the extreme price moves after Japan
announced its Â¥23T stimulus plan. As the NY morning approached the USD/JPY is
holding above the 90 level and EUR/USD is hovering around the 1.3320 area. Euro
aided by comments from ECB's Mersch in which the ECB must preserve monetary
policy's effectiveness and that the 175bps of rate cuts enacted from Oct have
been extraordinary | Price action, time of year, uncertainty will make Friday
even thinner than usual as day winds on
- In Fixed Income: Yields on UST's hit multi year lows in the immediate
aftermath of the failed Senate vote , before paring back in early European
trading. The 2y note is back above 0.70%, the 10y note is back above 2.50% and
the 30y back above 3.00%. There were mixed signals in EUR peripherals. Italy
sold 999M 4% 2012, â‚¬1.45B 4.25% 2014 and â‚¬1.4B 4.75% 2023 BTPS, with results
coming in towards to top end of the range of expectations. Meanhwile the yield
on the Greek 10y widened to a record 203bps over Bunds . Yields are lower
across the curve in Germany
and the UK,
with a steepening bias owing to better buying in the short end. March Bund
futures are up 64 ticks at 123.06, whilst March gilts are up 76 ticks at 118.23
||| The iTraxx Crossover index opened around the 1,070bps area, higher by 30
bps, iTraxx Europe 10bbps wider at 210bps
- In Energy: China's Energy Administration Dir noted that China could face an
energy surplus due to slowing demand citing "sizable capacity
expansion" for coal and fuel ||Goldman Sachs analyst guide 2009 average
oil price $45/bbl, down from $85/bbl || Goldman Sachs analysts cut outlook on
basic metals sector.
*** NOTES ***
- The question begging ahead of the NY morning is whether the US Auto bailout
dead or is backroom bargaining still going on? Dealers in Europe
pondering if lawmaker tolerance reached at automakers or is this part of the
politics at play. The initial reaction in late Asia was
one of risk aversion as Far East bourses closed sharply
lower on the news. European equity exchanges are lower but off their worst
levels seen on the open. The current call for the U.S.
markets is for a weaker open. Bond yields are lower. Gold and oil prives are
lower. The JPY rose sharply against the major pairs and commodity-related
currencies. ||Japan's MoF not satisfied with the JPY appreciation and recent
high volatility. Global markets seemed to take a pause after Japan
formally announced its Â¥23T stimulus plan during the European session. Dealers
are taking note of the recent sharp drop in Russian currency reserves. One
dealer pointed out the situation that Russia now faces in which defending one's
currency can be expensive, but there are significant costs in backing away.
Looking Ahead: Key data Friday include U.S. PPI data, retail sales and the university
of Michigan sentiment index
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Q3 Capacity Utilization Rate: Consensus expectations are
78.3% ; The prior number was 78.9%.
- 8:30 (CA) New Motor Vehicles Sales M/M: Consensus expectations are -1.0% ;
The prior number was 2.5%.
- 8:30 (US) Nov
Producer Price Index: M/M consensus expectations are -2.0%; The prior number
was -2.8% . Y/Y Consensus expectations are 0.2%; The prior number was 5.2%
- 8:30 (US) PPI
- Ex food & Energy: M/M consensus expectations are 0.1% ; The prior number
was 0.4%. Y/Y Consensus expectations are 4.2%; The prior number was 4.4%.
- 8:30 (US) Nov
Advance Retail Sales: Consensus expectations are -2.0% ; The prior number was
-2.8%. Retail Sales Less Autos : Consensus expectations are -1.8% ; The prior
number was -2.2%
De Preliminary U. of Michigan Confidence: Consensus expectations are 54.5 ; The
prior number was 55.3.
- 10:00 (US)
Oct Business Inventories: Consensus expectations are -0.2%; The prior number
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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