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Monday December 15, 2008 - 11:07:37 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Opec General Secy vowed 'significant cuts' at this weeks meeting

Today 05:41am

European Market Update: Opec General Secy vowed 'significant cuts' at this weeks meeting


- (SZ) Swiss Producer & Import Prices M/M: -1.4% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.9%e

- (DE) Denmark Nov Wholesale Prices M/M: -2.9% v -2.6% prior; Y/Y: -1.1% v 3.1% prior

- (IT) Italian Nov Final CPI (NIC incl Tobacco) M/M: -0.4% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.7%e; EU Harmonized M/M: -0.5% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.8%e

- (NO) Norway Nov Trade Balance: NOK31.4B v NOK32.2B prior


- In equities: Altos [ATO.FR] Denied press specuation that it Guided FY09 Op Profit €400M v €281.3Me || Total [MTP.FR}Reduced its stake in Dillinger from 62.36% to 33.4% ; separately noted that strikes at 4 French refineries have ended || Hennes & Mauritz [HMB.SW] Reported Nov SSS -4% v -2.1%e || Electrolux [ELUXB.SW] Stated that it would not meet its 2008 targets and would reduce its global workforce by 3K jobs in Q4. It saw a weakening demand for appliances in last two weeks of Nov and added that it forecasted a sharp declines in European and American demand in Dec || Ebro Puleva [EVA.SP] To be acquired by UK's AB Foods for €385M. The acquisition is expected to be earnings accretive for ABF in the 2010 financial year. Completion of the transaction is subject to regulatory approval and is likely to occur in early 2009. || Inchcape [INCH.UK] Reported YTD SSS -4.9% (in constant currency terms), Group Sales +3%. The company stated that it would not pay final dividend due to difficult trading outlook || Arkeme [AKE.FR] Lowered its guidance stating that it would not meet Q4 expectations. The company guided Q4 sales down 15% y/y and EBITDA flat y/y. It announced that it would cut costs by €50M by 2010. || Aquarius Platinum [AQP.UK] Reported business interruption at Everest Platinum Mine, operations suspended for 6 months || Premier Foods [PFD.UK] Confirmed press speculation and announced it was holding preliminary discussions to secure investment partner with a number of investors and other parties

(UK Times reported that the co. was seeking cash injection to cover nearly £1.8B in company debt) || 888 Holdings [888.UK] Expanded its bingo operations through 3 new networks. Two of these will be focused on the United Kingdom, with the third one being - for the first time - a localized Spanish offering. || Sibir [SBE.UK] In discussion with Russia's TNK-BP on possible STBP gasoline station sale || DEM Diamonds [GEMD.UK] To mothball its Cempaka Mine in Indonesia, effective Jan 1st. The company cited declining prices of gems produced || Demag Crane [D9C.GE] Reported FY08 Net €84.7M in line with estimates of €84.7M. it revenues were also inline with a reported €1.23B compared to €1.08B estimates. || Lundbeck [LUN.DC: Initiated Phase III Clinical Trials with Nalmefene as a new method of treatment of alcohol dependence || Arcandor [ARO.GE] Reported FY08 Net loss of €745.7M above the expected loss of €102.3M. Revenues were €19.8B near consensus estimates of 20B. Company reaffirmed its FY09 outlook || Acergy [ACY.NO] Awarded $250M contract for operations in Angola to develop gas pipeline transportation network

- Speakers: ECB's Ordonez noted that Spain has expressed disappointment by the role of IMF in crisis, wants more active role in resolving global financial crisis ||

- In Currencies: Dealers noting that the Russian Central Bank again is letting the Rouble move outside its stated band,thus another devaluation. || Senior British Treasury Min defended the Govt's decision to raise its borrowing and gave no indication that she was concerned by the pound's decline. The report cites Chief Secretary to the Treasury Yvette Cooper. || HKMA Injected HK$2.33B in 3rd injection as FX rate trades at the upper limit against the USD ||

-In Fixed Income: JP Morgan Analyst made some global comments on rates. It saw 10-year Note yields falling to 1.65% in 2009. It noted that the JGB-UST spread was to narrow to 10bps. Emerging market bonds to under perform in 2009. on the interest rate front, JPM saw ECB lowering rates to 1%, BoE to 0.5% SNB to 0.25%. Both the BoJ and Fed rates are seen going to zero

- In Energy: OPEC Sec Gen El-Badri stated that 'No doubt' there is oversupply in oil market; says action is required . Reiterating that OPEC/non-OPEC cut to be 'sizable'. Commented that oil market has excess inventory of 100M barrels. Hopes that Russia and other non-OPEC nations would assist in production cuts. He declined to comment how much OPEC would cut at its Dec 17th meeting || Lukoil's : CEO commented that OPEC expects Russian production to be reduced by 200-300K BPD || Statoil [STL.NO] stated that it saw OPEC cuts of 1.5-2M BBD following Algerian meeting later this week. It added it still saw prices remaining at current levels if expected production cuts are authorized. Latly the co. noted that it was unlikely that Norway to implement production cuts ||

- In commodities: China Nov Copper production Y/Y -2.3%

_ In the papers: FT reported that the US government may intensify its efforts to bring down mortgage costs and slow the decline in housing prices soon

- The government is expected to exploit its control of the GSEs in order to attempt to achieve its goals. || FT reported that Sales of European company bonds have surged in November and December, according to industry data, recovering from a disastrous autumn to surpass US end-of-year issuance for the first time, European non-financial companies have sold almost $57.5bn of bonds in the last two months of the year, according to Dealogic, outstripping most previous totals for this time of year and ahead of the $41.4bn in the US. Asian issuance has also been healthy at $23.7bn. Bond markets had suffered a dismal September and October, after the failure of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers, with Europe seeing no corporate bond sold for four weeks. Liquidity in secondary markets remains extremely limited with yields stuck at highly elevated levels.

*** NOTES ***

- With little in terms of economic data, dealers focused on the upcoming FOMC decision on Tuesday and OPEC's meeting on Wednesday. Dealers noting g that equity markets remain rather resilient for the most part in face of continued “bad” news. As like last week, suggesting that bad news finally fully-priced into the price action. With two weeks to go until the New Year dealers noting that price action more likely due to calendar purposes than underlying strength. Oil rose over $2.50 per barrel near $49.00 as OPEC vows 'significant cuts in production this week.

- Ecuador announced a default on its 2012 US dollar bond last Friday and markets bracing for any domino effects in emerging markets land. Numerous companies reported their related exposure to the potential Bernard Madoff fraud. Recessions tend to uncover what auditors miss.

- Japan's Q4 Manufacturing Tankan survey hit a seven-year low, and China's Industrial Production was the worst since the series started. Thus global recession concerns remain valid and clearly highlights the loss of growth momentum and ones' ability to export

Looking Ahead:

- 8:30 (US) Dec Empire Manufacturing: Consensus expectations are -27.5 ; The prior number was -25.4.

- 8:30 (EU) ECB's Papadermos speaks in Frankfurt

- 9:00 (GE) German Finance minister Steinbreuck speaks in Berlin

- 9:00 (US) Oct Net Long Term TIC Flows: Consensus expectations are $40.0B ; The prior number was $66.2B.

- 9:15 (US) Nov Industrial Production: Consensus expectations are -0.8%; The prior number was 1.3%.

- 9:15 (US) Nov Capacity Utilization : Consensus expectations are 75.6%; the prior number was 76.4%

- 12:30 (EU) ECB's Trichet speaks in Frankfurt


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