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Monday December 15, 2008 - 13:57:37 GMT
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Forex Research - Euro Gets the Leg up on The Week

Euro Gets the Leg up on The Week Last Updated 12/15/2008 4:49:08 AM EST (GMT +5)

Top Stories

  • Auto bailout unlikely until Thursday -Reuters
  • Nikkei Kospi rally 5% on optimism over bailout, better risk appetite
  • Tankan hits 30 year lows but prints within expectations
  • European banks have about $4 billion of exposure to Madoff affair
  • Calendar quiet today - all eyes on FOMC Tuesday
  • Oil quiet at $46/bbl last
  • Gold remains bid above $800/oz at $828/oz last

Overnight Eco

  • NZD Manufacturing Sales much better 1.3% vs. 0.5% last
  • JPY Tankan Manufacturing Index -24 vs. -23 called
  • JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index -9 as expected
  • GBP Rightmove Home Price Index -2.3% vs. -2.9%
  • CHF PPI -1.4%

Event Risk on Tap

  • USD Empire State Manufacturing Index expected at -27.0
  • USD TIC Long-Term Purchases expected $40B
  • USD Capacity Utilization Rate expected at 76.0%
  • USD Industrial Production expected at -0.5%

Price Action

  • USD/JPY hovers near 91 as risk appetite improves but upside hampered by FOMC rate cut
  • AUD/USD runs to 6700 in early Asia on spike in Nikkei and further rise in gold but 6700 ceiling so far
  • GBP/USD above 1.5000 in quiet Monday trade with docket empty
  • EUR/USD remains strong running to within few pips of 1.3500 as yield continues to attract

EUR/USD got off to a strong start on the first trading day of the week, as optimism among Asian equity investors, whetted risk appetite pushing the pair to within a whisker of 1.3500 level in early European trade. Both Nikkei and Kospi propelled higher rallying more than 5% each on the day, boosted by a variety of factors from the expectations of bailout of US automakers to the more than 7% spike in Baltic Dry Goods index on Friday.

The revival of risk boosted the euro as the currency continues to be the only yield play town amongst the G-3.  As we noted last week, should the Fed lower rates by 75bp on Tuesday, the dollar will have the dubious honor of having the lowest yield in the G-10 universe including that of even the yen. Is it any surprise then that end of the year flow continues to pour into the euro, which with its modest 2.5% yield is playing the role of a one eyed king amongst the multitude of the blind.

 The Madoff affair may have also had some positive impact on the currency, especially if it motivates  European hedge fund investors to repatriate their funds back home. Over the past week we have been skeptical of the sustainability of the EUR/USD rise given the slew of political and economic problems in the region, but last Friday’s revelations of the massive $50 Billion fraud by Mr. Madoff may have tipped the balance of power back to European  assets irrespective of the problems on the continent. The f US financial industry has taken yet another massive hit  in credibility which may be reflected in the further weakening of the dollar today.     

In North American trade today the economic calendar  is relatively quiet with only second tier data such as Empire manufacturing and capacity utilization on the docket. One release that could garner some attention is the TIC flow data due at 14:00 GMT.  The report is always dated, as it records transactions from 2 months back, nevertheless it may shed light on the extent of foreign appetite for US securities – which remains crucial to both the financing of US deficits and the strength of the dollar. The market is looking for $40 Billion print, but if the final number is significantly lower the greenback could come under further pressure as the day unfolds.   

FX Upcoming

Currency GMT EST Release Expected Prior
USD 13:30 8:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index -27.0 -25.4
USD 14:00 9:00 USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 40.0B 66.2B
USD 14:15 9:15 USD Capacity Utilization Rate 76.0% 76.4%
USD 14:15 9:15 USD Industrial Production -0.5% 1.3%

About The Author

Schlossberg has more than 20 years experience financial trading on Wall Street. His daily currency research appears in numerous newspapers worldwide and Schlossberg serves as a regular contributor to CNBC's Squawk Box and Bloomberg radio and television. Read more >>

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. This forum and its information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision based upon this forum or any information contained within. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Boris Schlossberg will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Boris Schlossberg do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice. If such advice is sought, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.




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