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Tuesday December 16, 2008 - 10:43:47 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Pre-Far New York Open for December 16, 2008
Pre-New York Open
- The U.S. will see a slew of data on the open of trade today (13:30 GMT). CPI data will be watched as concern about DE-flation is a growing concern. Economists say that there are known monetary policy cures for inflation but that deflation can be difficult to combat. Housing data will be watched as well, because any broad recovery would require a recovery of the housing sector.
- End of year trade continues to see the USD vulnerable against the European currencies. USD weakness is often expected as a seasonal pattern by traders. The USD has mostly recovered today. Gold and oil are mixed.
- Dealers are expecting a Fed policy easing later today of -50bp to -75bp. More important might be the tone of the policy statement.
- Far Eastern bourses closed easier. European bourses are now higher. The current call for the U.S. open is for firmer. U.S. Bond prices are stronger. The recent close correlation between forex and equities seems to have broken down.
See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude
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