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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Divergence emerges inside ECB on policy; BOE sees sharp drop in coming inflation; FOMC awaited; OPEC members seeks up to 2M barrels in production cuts

Today 06:09am

European Market Update: Divergence emerges inside ECB on policy; BOE sees sharp drop in coming inflation; FOMC awaited; OPEC members seeks up to 2M barrels in production cuts

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (UK) BOE Letter on Inflation: “Quite Possible” inflation could fall below 1% level in 2009

- (RU) Russia Nov Industrial Production Real M/M: -10.8% v -2.8% prior; Y/Y: -8.7% v -1.8%e

- (EU) EU Nov New 25 Car Registrations: -25.8% v -14.5% prior

- (FR) French Nov CPI M/M: -0.5% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.7%e

- (FR) CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: -0.5% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.0%e; CPI Ex Tobacco Index: 117.92 v 118.04e

- (FR) French Q3 Final non - Farm Payrolls Q/Q: -0.3% v -0.1%e

- (FR) French Dec Prelim PMI Manufacturing: 35.9 v 35.4e; PMI Services: 41.6 v 45.0e

- (SZ) Swiss Q3 Industrial Production Q/Q: -5.2% v -2.3%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 3.4%e

- (GE) German Dec Adv PMI Manufacturing: 33.5 v 34.6; PMI Services: 46.4 v 44.0e

-3:30 (SW) Swedish Nov Average House Prices: SEK1.79M v SEK1.75M prior.

- (EU) Dec Adv PMI Manufacturing: 34.5 v 34.2e; PMI Services: 42.0 v 41.4e; PMI Composite: 38.3 v 37.8e

- (UK) Nov CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 4.1% v 3.9%e

- (UK) Nov Core CPI Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.8%e;

- (UK) Nov Retail Price Index: 216.0 v 216.6e

- (UK) Nov RPI M/M: -0.8% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.2%e; RPI - Ex mortgage Payments: 3.9% v 4.0%e

- (EU) Eurozone Q3 Employment Q/Q: -0.1% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.8% v 1.2% prior

- (BR) Brazil Oct retail Sales M/M: -0.3% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: 10.1% v 9.0%e



*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities: Cadbury [CBRY.UK: Reaffirmed revenue and margin outlook. The company named Andrew Bonfield as new CFO, effective Feb 2009. It expected its FY08 Rev growth to be at 'top end of 4-6% target range' and sees modest FY margin improvement. Committed to delivering mid-teen margins by 2011 || Volkswagen [VOW.GE] CEO of Financial Services Unit stated that the application for German state loans was a precautionary measure. Waned to be sure the firm can maintain enough liquidity throughout the crisis. He added that operations in 2008 would be similar to those in 2007, see lower operating profit in 2009

|| Kesa [Reported H1 Retail Profit £13.0M below the £15.4M estimates (ex-items). Revenues were £2.18B rougly in-line with the £.219B consensus while SSS were down 5.5% y/y. It cut its dividend by 50%. || Zodiac [ZC.FR] Reported Q1 Rev €553.9M +13.4% y/y, confirms FY08-09 guidance || Frontline [FRO.NO] Reported that its had 25 supertankers booked to store oil and added that such supertankers may not be fully loaded || Victrex [VCT.UK] Reported FY08 Net £39M in line with £39.18M estimates, Pre tax £55M versus £54.79M estimates. Revenues were £141.1M just above the £139.13M estimates. It saw current customers reducing their inventory positions. It would guide 2009 outlook following Jan-Feb sales and was reviewing cost base in regards to current trading levels || Carpetright [CPR.UK] Reports H1 Pretax £9.5M versus 9.5Me. Revenues were Rev £236.8M compared to year-ago levels of £251.0M. Its CEO stated that market conditions and consumer confidence have declined through the first half. || Drax [DRX.UK] Trading remained in line with expectations, Guides FY08 cash balance £125-130M || Partygaming [PRTY.UK] Stated that talks with DOJ are in advanced stages with good progress and added that the payment would likely be significantly lowers than press reports. The company noted that any settlement unlikely with criminal plea. ( FT reported back on Dec 15th that the company's largest shareholder and co-founder, Anurag Dikshit,, had agreed to pay US authorities $300M and plead guilty to a charge relating to illegal web betting). || Unite Group [UTG.UK] sold assets to UNITE UK Student Accommodation Fund for £171.3M | Volvo [VOLVB.SW] Reported Nov truck deliveries of 19.3K, down 21% y/y. It noted that markets outside of Europe and North America continue to weaken. Its European truck deliveries fell 42% y/y to 9.8K and added that in October and November, order cancellations were larger than new orders in European markets. Overall it commented that customers remain cautious || Aer Lingus [AERL.UK] Stated that it would continue to maintain independence. It added that the Ryanair offer had already been unconditionally rejected || AB Inbev [ABI.BE] EU court found that the Bud trademark was invalid (Note Busch's use of name 'Budweiser' has been a point of legal contention with Budweiser Bier Burgerbrau which had founded its label in 1795, roughly 80 years before the Anheuser-Busch founding)|| Roche [ROG.SZ] Avastin filed in Europe for treatment of patients with agressive type of brain cancer || Danisco [DCO.DC] Reported Q2 Revenue of DKK3.3B compared to estimates of 3.15B. Net came in at DKK 339M above consensus of 311M. The company announced the suspension of its share buyback program ||


- Speakers: ECB Trichet stated that there was a limit to interest rate cuts and should avoid rates that are to low. Must make sure prior rate cuts are flowed through. He did note that the ECB was considering cutting deposit rates || ECB's Bonello economic activity had weakened since Dec 4th. Technically more room to cut interest rates if data warrants. - ECB is reviewing other options to ease market tension and added that quantitative easing within the ECB could be considered. Euro zone needs implementation of fiscal stimulus, not debate on the topic. He commented that have seen some signs of easing in money markets and that deflation was not a distinct danger for Euro zone|| BOE's King letter to Darling noted that inflation could drop below 1% in 2009 and return to target in H1 of next year. The weaker GBP should moderate the CPI drop to some degree. Weak UK output will cause significant slack. || Spain Econ Min Solbes bluntly stated that the ECB would not cut rates further if banks do not lend ||ECB's Draghi stated that the global financial crisis currently in 'critical stage' and sees additional impact on banks, need for stimulus || BoJ's Gov Shirakawa: Reiterated that currency moves have a great impact on the economy. The stronger JPY and weaker demand suggests that BoJ needs to downgrade outlook on Japan's economy || India Minister: Central Bank would intervene when appropriate to stem the volatility in the FX || Indian Trade Min: Exporters have cut 65.5K positions due to global recession as bith exports and production have declined. || Italian Think Tank: Sees Italian deficit to GDP ratio at 3.3% in 2009 and at 3.1% in 2010 |||| Swiss Govt cuts its 2009 GDP growth forecast to -0.8% versus a 1.3% prior view. It did see GDP returning to positive growth in 2010 with a 1.0% reading. Inflation to average 0.7% in 2009 compared to a 1.3% prior view|| || Swiss Econ Min Leuthard noted that the Gov was watching CHF FX rate closely and planned for a second economic stimulus package of up to CHF 650M || EU's Barroso stated that 'A lot' needed to be done in regards to the Eurozone economy || Germany Chancellor Merkel stated that the German Government would act on new stimulus measures in January


- In Currencies: USD rebounded from its two month lows against Europe pairs during the session. Dealers were attributing various technical factors for the price action today. The 1.3760 level represented a 38.2% retracement of the 1.6030 July highs and the 1.2330 Oct lows. Dovish comments from ECB member Bonello stated that Economic activity had weakened since Dec 4th and 'technically' more room to cut interest rates and that quantitative easing within the ECB could be considered. || The CHF was softer in the session following the Swiss Govt lowering of its 2009 GDP growth forecast to -0.8% v +1.3% prior view|| The GBP was off session lows after U.K. November inflation fell less than expected but remained vulnerable after the mandatory BOE letter to Exchequer Darling noted that UK inflation could fall below 1% in 2009. GBP/USD at 1.5220. off 70 pips from its opening level in Asia. GBP/JPY trading at 137.20, off 120+ pips || Soc Gen analyst stated that the EUR/GBP cross hitting parity was a possibility. The analyst also noted they the could see continued JPY strength against various pairs (USD. GBP and EUR). Lastly the analyst noted that their view was reducing their bet for the USD advance ||


-In Fixed Income: European yield steepened as the morning wore on. Speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and announce plans to buy U.S. government debt. The 30-year yield fell to 2.9%, close to the lowest since regular sales began in 1977 while the 10-year notes dropped to 2.47%


- In Energy: Iranian Oil Min reiterated their position that a 1.5M to 2M cut in oil output could restore stability in oil market || Venezuelan Oil Min Ramirez also sought an OPEC production cut output between 1-2M bpd. He added that OPEC was ready to make a 'big cut' and saw a minimum production cut of at least 1M bpd at the Algeria meeting || China seeks to increase reserves of strategic materials according to a comment from the Ministry of Industry & Information || Tullow Oil [TLW.UK] Announced 'significant' find in Uganda at Buffalo-1 Exploration Well || Tecnip [TEC.FR] To Expand Its Subsea Umbilicals Facility in Angola


*** NOTES ***

- The focus will be on the pending FOMC rate decision today with a 50 bps cut to 0.50% the consensus view.

- Goldman reports and some analyst expect the firm to report a quarterly loss of as much as $2.5B.

- 30 yrs below 3% on speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and announce plans to buy U.S. government debt.

- ECB offering some mixed views on interest rates. ECB Trichet stated that there was a limit to interest rate cuts and should avoid rates that are to low. Must make sure prior rate cuts are flowed through. He did note that the ECB was considering cutting deposit rates. However ECB's Draghi: Global financial crisis currently in 'critical stage' Rapidly falling inflation expectations coupled with some risks of deflation in some areas combined with the possibility of lowering interest rates to ZERO poses a test for monetary policy. ECB's Bonello comments were also seen as 'dovish'.

Looking ahead

- 8:30 (US) Nov CPI : M/M consensus expectations are -1.3%; The prior number was -1.0%. Y/Y Consensus expectations are 1.5% The prior number was 3.7%.

- 8:30 (US) Nov CPI- Ex Food & Energy: M/M consensus expectations are 0.1%; The prior number was -0.1%. Y/Y Consensus expectations are 1.5%; The prior number was 3.7%

- 8:30 (US) Nov CPI Core Index: There are no consensus expectations; The prior number was 216.801.

- 8:30 (US) Nov Consumer Price Index NSA: Consensus expectations are 212.699; The prior number was 216.573.

- 8:30 (US) Nov Housing Starts: Consensus expectations are 736k; The prior number was 791k.

- 8:30 (US) Nov Building Permits: Consensus expectations are 700k; The prior number was 730k.

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Oct Manufacturing Shipments: M/M consensus expectations are -0.4% ; The prior number was 0.1%. Y/Y Consensus expectations are 1.5%; The prior number was 3.7%.

-14:15 (US) FOMC Rate Decision: Consensus expectations are for a 50bps cut; The current Fed Funds target Rate is 1.00%

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
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12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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