- In equities: Cadbury [CBRY.UK: Reaffirmed revenue and margin outlook. The
company named Andrew Bonfield as new CFO, effective Feb 2009. It expected its
FY08 Rev growth to be at 'top end of 4-6% target range' and sees modest FY
margin improvement. Committed to delivering mid-teen margins by 2011 ||
Volkswagen [VOW.GE] CEO of Financial Services Unit stated that the application
for German state loans was a precautionary measure. Waned to be sure the firm
can maintain enough liquidity throughout the crisis. He added that operations
in 2008 would be similar to those in 2007, see lower operating profit in 2009
|| Kesa [Reported H1 Retail Profit ¬£13.0M below the ¬£15.4M estimates
(ex-items). Revenues were ¬£2.18B rougly in-line with the ¬£.219B consensus while
SSS were down 5.5% y/y. It cut its dividend by 50%. || Zodiac [ZC.FR] Reported
Q1 Rev ‚ā¨553.9M +13.4% y/y, confirms FY08-09 guidance || Frontline [FRO.NO]
Reported that its had 25 supertankers booked to store oil and added that such
supertankers may not be fully loaded || Victrex [VCT.UK] Reported FY08 Net ¬£39M
in line with ¬£39.18M estimates, Pre tax ¬£55M versus ¬£54.79M estimates. Revenues
were ¬£141.1M just above the ¬£139.13M estimates. It saw current customers
reducing their inventory positions. It would guide 2009 outlook following
Jan-Feb sales and was reviewing cost base in regards to current trading levels
|| Carpetright [CPR.UK] Reports H1 Pretax ¬£9.5M versus 9.5Me. Revenues were Rev
¬£236.8M compared to year-ago levels of ¬£251.0M. Its CEO stated that market
conditions and consumer confidence have declined through the first half. ||
Drax [DRX.UK] Trading remained in line with expectations, Guides FY08 cash
balance ¬£125-130M || Partygaming [PRTY.UK] Stated that talks with DOJ are in
advanced stages with good progress and added that the payment would likely be
significantly lowers than press reports. The company noted that any settlement
unlikely with criminal plea. ( FT reported back on Dec 15th that the company's
largest shareholder and co-founder, Anurag Dikshit,, had agreed to pay US
authorities $300M and plead guilty to a charge relating to illegal web
betting). || Unite Group [UTG.UK] sold assets to UNITE UK Student Accommodation
Fund for ¬£171.3M | Volvo [VOLVB.SW] Reported Nov truck deliveries of 19.3K,
down 21% y/y. It noted that markets outside of Europe
and North America continue to weaken. Its European truck
deliveries fell 42% y/y to 9.8K and added that in October and November, order
cancellations were larger than new orders in European markets. Overall it
commented that customers remain cautious || Aer Lingus [AERL.UK] Stated that it
would continue to maintain independence. It added that the Ryanair offer had
already been unconditionally rejected || AB Inbev [ABI.BE] EU court found that
the Bud trademark was invalid (Note Busch's use of name 'Budweiser' has been a
point of legal contention with Budweiser Bier Burgerbrau which had founded its
label in 1795, roughly 80 years before the Anheuser-Busch founding)|| Roche
[ROG.SZ] Avastin filed in Europe for treatment of patients with agressive type
of brain cancer || Danisco [DCO.DC] Reported Q2 Revenue of DKK3.3B compared to
estimates of 3.15B. Net came in at DKK 339M above consensus of 311M. The
company announced the suspension of its share buyback program ||
- Speakers: ECB Trichet stated that there was a limit to interest rate cuts and
should avoid rates that are to low. Must make sure prior rate cuts are flowed
through. He did note that the ECB was considering cutting deposit rates ||
ECB's Bonello economic activity had weakened since Dec 4th. Technically more
room to cut interest rates if data warrants. - ECB is reviewing other options
to ease market tension and added that quantitative easing within the ECB could
be considered. Euro zone needs implementation of fiscal stimulus, not debate on
the topic. He commented that have seen some signs of easing in money markets
and that deflation was not a distinct danger for Euro zone|| BOE's King letter
to Darling noted that inflation could drop below 1% in 2009 and return to
target in H1 of next year. The weaker GBP should moderate the CPI drop to some
degree. Weak UK
output will cause significant slack. || Spain Econ Min Solbes bluntly stated
that the ECB would not cut rates further if banks do not lend ||ECB's Draghi
stated that the global financial crisis currently in 'critical stage' and sees
additional impact on banks, need for stimulus || BoJ's Gov Shirakawa:
Reiterated that currency moves have a great impact on the economy. The stronger
JPY and weaker demand suggests that BoJ needs to downgrade outlook on Japan's
economy || India Minister: Central Bank would intervene when appropriate to
stem the volatility in the FX || Indian Trade Min: Exporters have cut 65.5K positions
due to global recession as bith exports and production have declined. ||
Italian Think Tank: Sees Italian deficit to GDP ratio at 3.3% in 2009 and at
3.1% in 2010 |||| Swiss Govt cuts its 2009 GDP growth forecast to -0.8% versus
a 1.3% prior view. It did see GDP returning to positive growth in 2010 with a
1.0% reading. Inflation to average 0.7% in 2009 compared to a 1.3% prior view||
|| Swiss Econ Min Leuthard noted that the Gov was watching CHF FX rate closely
and planned for a second economic stimulus package of up to CHF 650M || EU's
Barroso stated that 'A lot' needed to be done in regards to the Eurozone
economy || Germany Chancellor Merkel stated that the German Government would
act on new stimulus measures in January
- In Currencies: USD rebounded from its two month lows against Europe pairs
during the session. Dealers were attributing various technical factors for the
price action today. The 1.3760 level represented a 38.2% retracement of the
1.6030 July highs and the 1.2330 Oct lows. Dovish comments from ECB member
Bonello stated that Economic activity had weakened since Dec 4th and
'technically' more room to cut interest rates and that quantitative easing
within the ECB could be considered. || The CHF was softer in the session
following the Swiss Govt lowering of its 2009 GDP growth forecast to -0.8% v
+1.3% prior view|| The GBP was off session lows after U.K.
November inflation fell less than expected but remained vulnerable after the
mandatory BOE letter to Exchequer Darling noted that UK
inflation could fall below 1% in 2009. GBP/USD at 1.5220. off 70 pips from its
opening level in Asia. GBP/JPY trading at 137.20, off
120+ pips || Soc Gen analyst stated that the EUR/GBP cross hitting parity was a
possibility. The analyst also noted they the could see continued JPY strength
against various pairs (USD. GBP and EUR). Lastly the analyst noted that their
view was reducing their bet for the USD advance ||
-In Fixed Income: European yield steepened as the morning wore on. Speculation
the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and announce plans to buy U.S.
government debt. The 30-year yield fell to 2.9%, close to the lowest since
regular sales began in 1977 while the 10-year notes dropped to 2.47%
- In Energy: Iranian Oil Min reiterated their position that a 1.5M to 2M cut in
oil output could restore stability in oil market || Venezuelan Oil Min Ramirez
also sought an OPEC production cut output between 1-2M bpd. He added that OPEC
was ready to make a 'big cut' and saw a minimum production cut of at least 1M
bpd at the Algeria meeting || China seeks to increase reserves of strategic
materials according to a comment from the Ministry of Industry & Information
|| Tullow Oil [TLW.UK] Announced 'significant' find in Uganda at Buffalo-1
Exploration Well || Tecnip [TEC.FR] To Expand Its Subsea Umbilicals Facility in
*** NOTES ***
- The focus will be on the pending FOMC rate decision today with a 50 bps cut
to 0.50% the consensus view.
- Goldman reports and some analyst expect the firm to report a quarterly loss
of as much as $2.5B.
- 30 yrs below 3% on speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates
and announce plans to buy U.S.
- ECB offering some mixed views on interest rates. ECB Trichet stated that
there was a limit to interest rate cuts and should avoid rates that are to low.
Must make sure prior rate cuts are flowed through. He did note that the ECB was
considering cutting deposit rates. However ECB's Draghi: Global financial
crisis currently in 'critical stage' Rapidly falling inflation expectations
coupled with some risks of deflation in some areas combined with the
possibility of lowering interest rates to ZERO poses a test for monetary
policy. ECB's Bonello comments were also seen as 'dovish'.
- 8:30 (US) Nov
CPI : M/M consensus expectations are -1.3%; The prior number was -1.0%. Y/Y
Consensus expectations are 1.5% The prior number was 3.7%.
- 8:30 (US) Nov
CPI- Ex Food & Energy: M/M consensus expectations are 0.1%; The prior
number was -0.1%. Y/Y Consensus expectations are 1.5%; The prior number was
- 8:30 (US) Nov
CPI Core Index: There are no consensus expectations; The prior number was
- 8:30 (US) Nov
Consumer Price Index NSA: Consensus expectations are 212.699; The prior number
- 8:30 (US) Nov
Housing Starts: Consensus expectations are 736k; The prior number was 791k.
- 8:30 (US) Nov
Building Permits: Consensus expectations are 700k; The prior number was 730k.
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Oct Manufacturing Shipments: M/M consensus expectations
are -0.4% ; The prior number was 0.1%. Y/Y Consensus expectations are 1.5%; The
prior number was 3.7%.
FOMC Rate Decision: Consensus expectations are for a 50bps cut; The current Fed
Funds target Rate is 1.00%
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
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