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Tuesday December 16, 2008 - 20:21:36 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Far East Open for December 16, 2008
Pre-Far East Open
- The Fed made a historic policy decision on Tuesday setting as target range for Fed Funds of 0-0.25%, from a previous single point target of 1.00%. The central bank threw in the â€śkitchen sinkâ€ť and took just about every action at their disposal to support the economy and promised â€śto use all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growthâ€ť.
- Forex markets had set up for a Fed easing by buying most major currencies (not the GBP) against the USD. The U.K. is seen as the weakest economy in the G8. Data released early in the morning out of the U.S. were weaker than expected. Inflation data out of the U.K. and U.S. contributed to growing deflation worries.
- End of year trade continues to see the USD vulnerable against the European currencies. USD weakness is often expected as a seasonal pattern by traders. Gold and oil are mixed.
- Far Eastern bourses closed easier. European bourses closed higher. The current call for the U.S. close is for up sharply. U.S. Bond prices are soaring. The recent close correlation between forex and equities was back working on Tuesday. It had become less reliable recently. See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude
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