grabber today is the US Fedâ€™s fresh announcement: a 75bp rate cut, and the new
Fed funds rate anywhere between zero and 0.25%. This is much more dovish than
was expected, and risk assets have rallied significantly after the news, which was
released at NZ time as
we write. The US data last
night was worse than expected: CPI, housing starts, and building permits, but
the Fedâ€™s move dominates today. NYMEX oil is down 0.5% to $44, shrinking demand
dominating expected OPEC cuts, and copper is down 1%.
After a tiny
correction yesterday, the NZD has rallied impressively, to
catch-up with the EURâ€™s earlier lead, and was at the highs around 0.5670 just
before the Fedâ€™s decision. It immediately spiked to 0.5735 on the news.
rangebound around 0.67 until mid-Europe session, when it started a slow rally
towards 0.68. The Fed news pushed it immediately to 0.69, and also nudged AUD/NZD
to 1.2040, after as low as 1.19 in Europe.
strong, at 1.40, and has shrugged off hawkish comments by the ECB head, Trichet.
fallen to 89.20, after hugging 90 last night.
Fed established a target range for the fed funds rate of 0 to 0.25% (from 1.0%
previously). Given â€śappreciably diminishedâ€ť inflationary pressures and â€śthe weaker
prospects for economic activityâ€ť, the Fed â€świll employ all available tools to
promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability.
In particular, the Committee anticipates that weak economic conditions are likely
to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time... The
focus of the Committeeâ€™s policy going forward will be to support the
functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market
operations and other measures that sustain the size of the Federal Reserveâ€™s
balance sheet at a high level.â€ť
CPI drops 1.7% in Nov; annual rate falls from 3.7% yr to 1.1% yr.
The monthly CPI headline posted its steepest slump since current records began
in 1947. An essentially flat core rate added to the soft prices picture.
housing starts plunge 19% in Nov; permits down 16%. There were
no obvious distortions from the sometimes volatile multiples component of
starts/permits; all four major regions recorded declines. The new build housing
market is imploding in the US. Starts are
down 73% from their peak in January 2006, to the lowest they have ever been
(records began in the 1950s). Why would you buy a new home? Near new homes can
be snapped up for 50% less than they were sold by their builders just two years
ago in some areas; mortgages are hard to secure; potential buyers are worried about
their jobs; and there is a huge over-supply of homes, so prices will fall
October tertiary index rose 0.4%mth, beating median projections for a 0.2% fall.
This left the gauge of service sector activity at â€“1.4%yr, a slight moderation from
-1.5%yr in September, reflecting a departure from the gradual upward trajectory
that saw annual growth of 1.3% in 2007.
advance PMIs keep slipping in Dec. Not dramatic, with the composite factory/services
PMI easing from 38.9 to 38.3. This would be consistent with a Q4 GDP decline of
at least 0.5%.
inflation eased from 4.5% yr to 4.1% yr in Nov. Fuel prices
were down but food prices rose, possibly a function of the recent sharp
depreciation of sterling. Nevertheless Bank of England Governor
Mervyn King wrote in his open letter to the Chancellor that he expected the CPI
to return to 2% target in H1 2009 and then fall lower, possibly requiring a
letter explaining a target undershoot of more than 1% later next year. Nothing
here to prevent further BoE rate cuts.
maintains its strength today, and 0.56 provides strong support. The rally should
temporarily slow down around the 0.58 chart level.
Country Release Last Forecast
17 Dec Aus
Oct Westpac-MI Leading Index 1.1% â€“
Merchandise Imports AUDbn 21.9 â€“
Current Account Deficit $bn â€“183.1 â€“177.0
Eur Nov CPI
(F) %yr 2.1%a 2.0%
UK Dec BoE
Unemployment châ€™ 36.5k 45.0k
Retail Survey â€“46 â€“50
Wholesale Sales 1.5% â€“2.0%
18 Dec NZ
Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update
Business Confidence â€“43.0% â€“
â€˘ NZ Q3
Current Account Preview (16 December)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (16 December)
Preview (15 December)
â€˘ NZ Q3
Terms of Trade (10 December)
â€˘ NZ Agribiz
December 2008 (9 December)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (8 December)
â€˘ RBNZ MPS
Review (4 December)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.