reassessment of individual currencies continued, the USD clearly in the dog-box
for now, falling 2% (DXY index). Sentiment towards risk improved, the VIX (US equity
volatility index) at a 6-week low. Major global equity indices were
approximately unchanged. NYMEX oil fell to $42 despite OPEC agreeing to cut
production. Norway topped the â€ślargest
rate cutâ€ť list, with 175bp.
yesterdayâ€™s exceptional intraday rally to 0.58, the NZD corrected
only marginally to 0.5770 during Europe, and
followed EUR higher to around 0.5950 during the US session.
Todayâ€™s half-year fiscal statement will tell us about the size of future
deficits, and therefore, funding requirements.
The AUD found it
difficult to establish higher ground, sticky around 0.70. As a consequence, the
AUD/NZD cross continued to give back the monthâ€™s gains, and touched 1.18.
between 1.40 and 1.42 until late Europe, when it
jumped to almost 1.45 on no particular news. GBP was unloved
after BoEâ€™s pessimistic comments and record-weak jobless and sales data,
falling from 1.57 area to 1.5250, partially recovering to 1.55. JPY marches on,
flirting with 87 (vs USD) overnight, but, ever cautious of the BoJ, back at 88.
data to report.
CPI confirmed at 2.1% yr in Nov, in line with the flash estimate. The core CPI
was steady at 1.9% yr.
jobs and retail data very weak. The number of unemployment benefit recipients
jumped 76k in Nov, the biggest one month gain since the early 1990s recession.
In the three months to Oct, employment fell 115k, its second consecutive
quarter of decline. The household labour force survey jobless rate jumped from
5.8% to 6.0%, its highest yet this decade. In Dec, the Confederation of British
Industry reported its weakest ever sales, with a net balance of â€“55%, down from
â€“46% in Nov.
considered bigger rate cut on Dec 4. The 100bp rate cut to 2.0% was unanimous,
but there was discussion about possibly cutting
by an even
larger amount â€“ which suggests that rates will be cut further at the January
cuts rates 175bp to 3.0%. Yet another central bank surprising us with
aggressive rate cuts. Norges signalled more cuts to come next year.
should continue until early January. The latest rally from 0.54 (10 December)
looks stretched here, and we would expect a correction today, taking it towards
the bottom of a 0.58 â€“ 0.5970 daily range.
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