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Wednesday December 22, 2004 - 01:10:37 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 22nd December 2004

Price: ... 1.9272

Resistance: 1.9284 ... 1.9325 ... 1.9357 ... 1.9384
Support....: 1.9238 ... 1.9216 ... 1.9183 ... 1.9139

Bias: We look for price to remain below 1.9325 for a test of 1.9216 before higher

Bullish: Yesterday's losses were stronger than expected but we do not alter our medium term bullish stance. However, we should see losses continue today down to the 1.9216 area which we feel should hold. (Further support is at 1.9183). Thus from this lower area we look for gains to resume and should move back above 1.9250 and to 1.9325 at least. Break here would confirm further gains back higher to 1.9384-1.9407.

Bearish: The losses from 1.9506 have been deeper than expected and we expect some marginal losses from here but feel that the limit should be in the 1.9183-1.9216 area. Resistance at 1.9325 should hold while these marginal losses are expected. Thus only a clean break at 1.9183 would allow losses to extend down to 1.9139.



Elliott Wave Comments:

December 16th 2004

Wave b was very brief yesterday and implies a minimum target at 1.9460 though we suspect a 138.2% projection at 1.9567 is more likely which is close to a 14.6% Expanded Flat correction target. While this area holds it not impossible to envisage a move down to 1.9013 once again - or to the 1.9184 area at least. These would imply the possibility of Flat correction (with peak at 1.9507) or an Expanded Flat correction (with peak at 1.9567-80) and thus the next move should be down to 1.9013 once again. Any earlier break of 1.9580 and then 1.9633 would imply that Wave -v- has resumed and we'd look for a minimum target above 2.01...

December 20th 2004

The test of 1.9548 (just below the 1.9567 14.6% Expanded Flat target) raises the chance of an this pattern. However, the decline from 1.9548 does not appear to fit in with this. Thus we are faced with either a triangle structure which would imply losses down to 1.9125-75 before higher again, or that we have resumed the uptrend. The latter appears to have the greater risk but prudence dictates that we should wait for this to be confirmed by a break above Friday's high at 1.9445 and probably the 1.9495-05 pivot srea. If this latter level is broken expect continued upside to develop towards 1.9793, 1.9995 and probably above the 2.0100 peak seen in September 1992...



(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004

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