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Thursday December 18, 2008 - 10:38:32 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Pre-Far New York Open for December 18, 2008
Pre-New York Open
- December German IFO data were very weak today and raised again the questions in the minds of traders about the rationality of the leadership of the ECB, which incomprehensibly continues to fret about inflation in a deflationary global economy.
- There is market chatter that the PBOC has been a large buyer of EUR daily since the start of December and this is thought to be behind the tumble in the USD. Today already there was ralk that the BOJ had intervened in USD/JPY, but so far no official confirmation has been forthcoming. The extent of the USD decline in recent weeks has ben nothing short of remarkable and certainly would meet the old test of â€śdisorderly marketsâ€ť.
- This certainly is not a time to try to catch a falling knife or to fight the tape. The USD has extended its tumble against major currencies further today. Many have already closed their books for the year and are under instructions not to make waves before 1Q09. Illiquid markets can be very dangerous to trade.
- Gold and oil are mixed. The OPEC announcement of a net 2.2mln bbd production reduction effective on January 1 to drain excess supply has not had much of an impact. Crude has tested below the $40 line, but is now back just above it.
- Far Eastern bourses closed higher. European bourses sare higher atthis hour. The current call for the U.S. open is for lower. U.S. Bond prices are up again. See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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