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Thursday December 18, 2008 - 10:38:32 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Pre-Far New York Open for December 18, 2008
Pre-New York Open
- December German IFO data were very weak today and raised again the questions in the minds of traders about the rationality of the leadership of the ECB, which incomprehensibly continues to fret about inflation in a deflationary global economy.
- There is market chatter that the PBOC has been a large buyer of EUR daily since the start of December and this is thought to be behind the tumble in the USD. Today already there was ralk that the BOJ had intervened in USD/JPY, but so far no official confirmation has been forthcoming. The extent of the USD decline in recent weeks has ben nothing short of remarkable and certainly would meet the old test of â€śdisorderly marketsâ€ť.
- This certainly is not a time to try to catch a falling knife or to fight the tape. The USD has extended its tumble against major currencies further today. Many have already closed their books for the year and are under instructions not to make waves before 1Q09. Illiquid markets can be very dangerous to trade.
- Gold and oil are mixed. The OPEC announcement of a net 2.2mln bbd production reduction effective on January 1 to drain excess supply has not had much of an impact. Crude has tested below the $40 line, but is now back just above it.
- Far Eastern bourses closed higher. European bourses sare higher atthis hour. The current call for the U.S. open is for lower. U.S. Bond prices are up again. See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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