- In equities: ASML [ASML.NV] Lowered its Q4 Revenue outlook to ÔéČ450-500M range
against consensus estimates of ÔéČ534.8M (The prior co view wasÔéČ530M). It
announced that it would reduce its workforce by1K jobs (about 10% of total
workforce) and close down its facilities for 4 weeks in H1 2009 || Siemens
[SIE.GE] Reiterated its profit targets for industry division,. It sees the FY
profit margin in a range of 9% to 13% . It noted that divisions backlog
remained ÔÇťhighÔÇŁ. || Quantas [QAN.AU] British Airways stated that it was no
longer in discussions with company regarding a merger. British Airways stated
that it was unable to reach an agreement at this time || Yara [YAR.NO]
Announced that its Growhow joint venture would suspend ammonia production at
its Ince, UK
facility after Christmas. It would resume production when markets improved ||
Rank [RNK.UK] Reported 15-week SSS +1%, YTD like-for-like Rev -7%, Total Rev
-5%. Noted that trading for the current financial year remained in line with
market expectations. But that the outlook for the UK economy in 2009 is
uncertain, || Arriva [ARI.UK] Provided a trading statement in which it saw
Group revenue growth of around 50% for FY and added that it saw significant
full year earnings growth as expected || Arques Industries [AQU.GE] Sold an 85%
share in automobile supplier Eurostyle to management in an MBO in a symbolic
price || Pernod-Richard [RI.FR] Signed agreement with Arcus Gruppen for the
sale of Groenstedts Cognac, Star Gin, Red Port and Dry Anis brands. Transaction
should be completed early in 2009 after obtaining the agreement of the relevant
competition authorities || Petrofac [PFC.UK] Expected to report FY08 Net inline
with prior expectations. Its FY08 Backlog at $4.0B compared to $4.4B y/y. ||
Escada [ESC.GE] Reported Reports FY EBITDA ÔéČ19.7M below the estimate of ÔéČ24.0M.
Revenues came in at ÔéČ582.5M compared to estimates of ÔéČ597.0M. The company noted
it had not calculated its FY Net, but expected net loss to be greater than loss
in 2007. || Ordina [ORDI.NV] Expected to improve FY09 profitability by up ÔéČ15M.
The company announced plans to cut 350 jobs which would result in a one off
charge of ÔéČ20M to ÔéČ25M in H2 2008 || McBride [MCB.UK] Provided trading statement:
Revenue growth has been strong; Guides H1 Rev higher y/y from 2007 || Thales
[HO.FR] Offered to purchase CMT Medical for ÔéČ5.65/shr, deal valued at ÔéČ21.5M ||
Vinci [DG.FR] Carlos Tassarra commenced its sale of 8M shares in co. (1.62% of
outstanding shares) || Gazprom [GAZP.RU] Firm may seek loan from Russian VEB
bank, loan not needed for 2009 investments
- Speakers: Japan Fin Min Nakagawa reiterates in a press conference in the
European morning that the BoJ was watching currency markets closely. He added:
"I would like to refrain from commenting on whether or not we will
intervene, but I do have the means" || ECB's Stark noted that Governments
should be required to have an exit strategy for the global credit crisis. He
noted that monetary policy should turn restrictive once crisis subsides. Did
not see sustained economic decline in Euro zone prices and must insure that
government stimulus packages do not lead to rising inflation|| BoE's Bean: Zero
rates in UK are
possible. Noted that Quantitative easing would needed to be coordinated with
the U.K. Treasury and the DMO. || Japan Govt Spokesman Kawamura noted that Japan
would act appropriately on forex, including intervention. The Govt will deal
appropriately with JPY's rise and must closely watch the JPY's rise against the
USD. Lastly the Government needs to respond to currency issue || PBOC Governor
Zhou: Rate decision to depend on China's economic data and have no relation to
US policy, anticipates consumer inflation to remain || French PM Fillon noted
that 2009 growth could be slightly below forecast of +0.2% and +0.5%; No
European country would avoid recession in 2009. lastly he did not rule out a
second stimulus package for France
|| IFO's Sinn stated that German exports to weaken further and that firms were
being less critical regarding outlook || IFO's Nerb noted that the German
economic downturn was "slowing down" and that the overall Economic
outlook remains mixed inside germany.
He did note that further interest rate cuts by the ECB would help the German
economy. He reiterated that both ECB rate cuts and Government measures are
important || IFO's Abberger commented that German industry sector was
particularly affected by global economic crisis. He stated that the ECB should
cut interest rates by a further 50bps from the 2.00% level. However, he
commented that the Christmas season would not be strong in term of sales, but
not as weak as initial feared. || Goldman Sachs analyst raise US
credit losses to $1.8T from $1.2T (on 10/03). Goldman analyst added that he saw
a shift towards losses in corporate and consumer loan books. He reiterated that
the US was
hal-way through the credit crisis || German Econ Ministry expected that
economic contractions would intensify in Q4; and that no economic indicators signaled
change in the trend. Current data supported view that output will continue to
sink fasterand exports would not give a growth boost to country in near future
|| Chancellor Darling: Banking steps have helped stabilize the economy and that
interest rates would stay lower than inflation in 2009 ||
- In Currencies: Action was swift and volatile during the European morning.
Following the better UK
retail sales data, the Currency market was choppy and volatile as chatter
circulated that the BOJ was performing an intervention to weaken the JPY. This
chatter was preceded by continued comments from Japanese official about concern
over the stron JPY currency. Fin Min Nakagawa reiterated just ahead of the UK
retail sales data that the BoJ was watching currency markets closely. EUR/JPY
surged some 350 pips following the UK
retail sales data within a 15 minute period to test above 131 level. Other JPY
related pairs moved just as dramatically. GBP/JPY went from 135.40 to probe
above 138.00. In EUR/USD: Dealers noted that Chinese names have been aggressive
buyers of Euros over the last week with some amounts rumored to be above some
ÔéČ60B. || Reportedly, the Russian Central bank has widened the Ruble trading
band and dealers noting that today's devaluation appears to be 50 Kopecks. This
would mark the 3rd rouble devaluation in a 4 day period and eighth time in
under two months since Russia
started a gradual devaluation from Nov. 11th. Dealers added that the Russian
Central Bank has spent around $100 billion on currency support since early
August || EUR/GBP again tested fresh all-time highs at it tested above the 0.95
level. Dealers attributing the recent surge in the cross to comments from BOE's
Bean who noted that th e UK
economy was getting worse, and that a zero Bank Rate is a possibility. ||
Lastly, Dealers note that ECB holding non-policy meeting today; pondering
whether it could result in unconventional move ||
- In Energy: Chinese Government announced lowered Gasoline and Diesel prices,
effective Dec 19th. China
cut gasoline prices by 14% and diesel price by 18%. || Petrobras [PBR]
Discoverd oil in on shore Potiguar block T-605. It has yet to determine if find
can be developed commercially. (Note: On 12.17, discovers more oil in Seal
T-391 block) || WSJ "Heard on the Street" comments on the spread
between front month and forward oil prices. The article commented on the fact
that front month oil prices are trading much lower than forward prices. Article
noted that there is more open interest in the first 6 months of Nymex contracts
than the next 8 and a half years combined.
*** NOTES ***
- The European morning was all about the currency market. Japan's
Nakagawa stepped up JPY intervention talk and the chatter reverberated during
the European morning as price action was 'whippy and volatileÔÇŁ. The
retail sales data provided the perfect catalyst for intervention rumors as
European pairs were firmer against the JPY in the aftermath. BOE's Bean noted
during the Asian session that UK
interest rates could fall as low as ZERO percent and that the economic
situation was worsening in the UK.
Other topic mention among the dealing desks in Europe
focused on Goldman Sachs planed sale of its Sanyo stake for $2.7B to Panasonic.
- Looking Ahead
- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Oct International Securities Transactions: Consensus
expectations are -C$1B; The prior number was -C$267M
- (CA) Canadian Nov Leading
Indicators: M/M consensus expectations are -0.4%; The prior number was -0.4%
- (CA) Canadian Oct Retail
Sales: M/M consensus expectations are ; The prior number was . Y/Y Consensus
expectations are -1.1%; The prior number was -1.1%. Retail Sales less Autos :
Consensus expectations are -1.0%; The prior number was 0.8%
- 8:30 (US)
Initial Jobless Claims Dec w/e 13th: Consensus expectations are 558k; The prior
number was 573k
- (US) Dec Continuing Claims w/e
Dec 6th : Consensus expectations are 4.375M; The prior number was 4.429M.
- (US) Dec Philadelphia Fed:
Consensus expectations are -40.5; The prior number was -39.3.
- 10:00 (US)
Nov Leading Indicators: Consensus expectations are -0.4%; The prior number was
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