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Thursday December 18, 2008 - 20:19:05 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Pre-Far East Open for December 19, 2008
Pre-Far East Open
- Chatter that the PBOC has been a large buyer of EUR daily since the start of December suggested to some of us that this trade had probably already run its course. There was the suggestion early on that this was the day to sell EUR/USD as those who had caught the move would be looking to take profits before the holiday break that starts next week. Add to this, action by the ECB, effective January 21, to discourage hoarding of Euro deposits by commercial banks at the central bank. When the EUR started to tumble, it fell off a cliff.
- There was chatter early that the BOJ had intervened in USD/JPY, but some dealrs dismissed the story as an overreaction to a big order. The extent of the USD decline in recent weeks has been nothing short of remarkable and certainly would meet the old test of â€śdisorderly marketsâ€ť.
- The December German IFO data were very weak and refreshed the questions in the minds of traders about the decision-making of the leadership of the ECB, which incomprehensibly continues to fret about inflation in a deflationary global economy.
- Gold and oil are down. The January crude contract was substantially lower than the February contract, which becomes the front month on Friday. January contract weakness is just seen as a technicality.
- Far Eastern bourses closed higher. European bourses closed up. The current call for the U.S. close is for lower. U.S. Bond prices are up again. See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
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