Wednesday May 19, 2004 - 02:20:14 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Daily view on Dollar-YenPrice: 113.90
Resistance: 114.10 ... 114.45 ... 114.70 ... 114.85
Support....: 113.80 ... 113.65 ... 113.50 ... 113.35
Mixed - waiting for breaks
The picture here is quite mixed and trading on breaks should provide a safer strategy. Support is at 113.80 which should ideally hold while a bullish stance is valid. We require a break first back above 114.10 and then 114.45 to bring some strength back into price but then we would only expect a rally through to 114.85-115.25. Further resistance is at 115.55.
If we have any bias it would be lower in line with the medium term view but we prefer to wait for break in an attempt to avoid whipsaws. We have just seen the 113.80 support tested a few moments ago and a break here would trigger further losses down to 113.50 - break of this lower level and yesterday's corrective low at 113.35 would be enough to confirm losses through the 113.05 low and down to 112.50 minimum and possibly 112.20.
Elliott Wave Comment:
The test of 114.85 this morning has satisfied target for the rally from 104.96-105.02 and we feel there is a strong chance that this has completed Wave [iii]. The ideal target is 104.90-00 but given the strong pivot resistance at 115.00-50 we feel there is a chance of falling short of the ideal target. Overall then we feel this implies that Wave [iv] should now begin and this will imply a move back to 112.80 at least and we feel to 112.35 and probably 111.10-60 before Wave [v] can begin.
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