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Friday December 19, 2008 - 10:44:06 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Pre-New York Open for December 19, 2008
Pre-New York Open
- The BOJ surprised us by thrown in the kitchen sink today. It lowered its overnight target rate by 20bps to virtually zero (0.10%) and announced other measures to improve the liquidity in the system. No doubt it was the recent surge in the JPY that pushed them over the edge. We feel forex intervention is a serious risk at the USD/JPY 80-85 level or below. The timing and level for intervention of intervention is by definition unpredictable. Japan also intervenes through surrogates to hide its tracks.
- We suggested yesterday that end of year reserve reallocations by central banks may have run its course, but this is also highly unpredictable. Those who said yesterday was the day to sell EUR/USD were dead on. The view was Thursday was to day to take profits before the holiday period. Also, actions by the ECB to discourage commercial bank hoarding of Euro deposits at the ECB weighed on the Euro.
- Our focus today is where the EUR/USD establishes itself relative to the psychological 1.40 line. The extent of USD volatility this week has been remarkable and certainly has met the test of a â€śdisorderly marketâ€ť.
- Deapite the BOJ actions, Far Eastern bourses closed mixed to lower. European bourses are weaker. The current call for the U.S. open is for lower. U.S. Bond prices are up modestly. See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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