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Monday December 22, 2008 - 20:31:19 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Analysis: Pre-Far East Open for December 23, 2008
Pre-Far East Open
- The holiday markets appear to have arrived on Monday. However, just about all the data normally scheduled for the rest of the month has been compressed into Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday and Wednesday moring in the U.S. will see a slew of data releases. Tuesday is a holiday in Japan and Wednesday will effectively be a holiday in most markets. Thursday and Friday are holidays in most centers.
- As GVI Forex Jay mentioned, it all boils down to capital flows now. The markets in the past week or so have shown little capacity to accomomate big transactions. Depending on how you are positioned, thin markets can move for you are against you. This is not a bad time to throttle back on your leverage.
- The usual pattern this time of year is for forex prop traders to square up before Christmas and then start to position for the new year before the New Years holidays. Odds are traders will beless bold this year than in previous periods.
- The EUR/USD pivoted the 1.40 line today in Europe, but seemed to get a nosebleed above that line. EUR/GBP remains a focus as it relentlessly heads towards the 100 target.
- Far Eastern bourses closed mixed. European bourses were lower. The current call for the U.S. close is for lower. U.S. Bond prices are weaker. See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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