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Forex Blog - European Market Update: U.K. Economy Contracted the most since Q3 1990

Today 05:46am

European Market Update: U.K. Economy Contracted the most since Q3 1990

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (TT) Taiwan Nov Industrial production Y/Y: -28.4% v -15.7%e

- (FR) Nov Consumer Spending M/M: 0.3% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.0%

- (FR) Q3 Final Wages Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.7%e

- (IT) Dec Consumer Confidence: 99.6 v 99.5e

- (IT) Oct Retail Sales M/M: -0.3% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -0.7% v -0.6%e

- (PD) Polish Nov Retail Sales M/M: -9.0% v -5.4%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 6.1%e

- (PD) Polish Nov Unemployment Rate: 9.1% v 9.0%e

- (EU) Euro-Zone Oct Current Account: -€6.4B v -€8.8B prior; Current Account SA: -€4.8B v -€4.2B prior

- (UK) Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.6% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.3%e (Biggest quarterly drop since Q4 1990)

- (UK) Q3 Current Account: -£7.7B v -£6.4Be

- (UK) Oct Index of Services Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.6%e

- (UK) Nov BBA Loans for House Purchase: 17,773 v 20,767 prior

- (IT) Nov Hourly Wages M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.4%e



*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities: Nicox [COX.FR] Announces results of Phase II study regarding TPI 1020. It noted that Results were not significantly different than those from Budesonide, as such, TI 1020 development will be discontinued in COPD development || Kuoni [KUNN.SZ] Acquired Swiss-Based Educational Travel Specialist Cotravel; no terms disclosed || Fresenius [FRE.GE] Phase II results show Removab was well tolerated || Eniro [ENRO.SW] Lowered its fiscal year outlook noting that its EBITDA could be 2% below previous guidance. The company added that sales in Finland were below expectations. || Archemix [ARCH] Entered Strategic Alliance with GlaxoSmithKline [GSK.UK] to Develop Aptamers to Treat Inflammatory Diseases || Gold Fields [GFI] Stated that it was on track to meet production guidance of 840K oz of gold. It noted that cash costs and CAPEX were lower than expected and that it benefited from weakness in exchange rates in both South African Rand and Australian dollar pairs || Gamesa Corp [GAM.SP] Received several orders from China's Longyuan to supply 295 MW to different Chinese wind farms during 2009 || Volvo [VOLVB.SW] Awarded order for 235 buses from Australia. It added that the order could grow by another 250 buses in the years ahead.- Delivery of buses starts at the end of 2009 and would continue through June 2011. || Premeir [PRE.GE] Stated that it saw anegative cash flow of €250M in FY09 along with a considerable EBITDA loss. - It aimed to be profitable in 2011 and break even in 2010

It completed a new €525M credit facility. It noted that News Corp to back stop €450M rights offer. The subscription period for first capital increase to run from Dec 30th through Jan 12th || Talyor Wimpey [TW.UK] Provided an update on its financing discussions noting that it has made good progress on debt deferral talks with creditors. It did add that it was likely to breech interest cover covenants in Jan, but the company was close to concluding the discussions. ||



- Speakers: IMF Chief Economist stated that Governments must seek to replace private demand to avoid a 'great depression'. The IMF added that stimulus plans must be focused on higher public spending. And noted that States should be prepared to spend 3% of GDP if necessary. Financial institutions are too slow in recognizing their losses and clarifying thier balance sheets. Governments should force banks to dispose of toxic assets || ECB's Bini Smaghi commented that the Euro did not hurt purchasing power || The Indian Finance Ministry presented it half-year review to Parliament. It currently targets 7% to 8% GDP growth in 2009, but caution that growth could come in on the low end of expectations. It commented that thus far the global financial turmoil had been 'muted' in its effect on India. The report noted that H2 activity and growth could be significantly lower than H1 2008, state should be prepared for growth at the lower end of the projected spectrum. The report added that the economic slowdown could affect tax revenue and saw considerable room for monetary easing over the next 6 to 12 month period. || Chinese Currency Regulator SAFE noted it was planning to ease trade prepayments to aid companies during downturn || Polish Dep Fin Min commented that Q4 to demonstrate weakest growth of 2008.



- In Currencies: The unexpected downward revision in UK GDP helped push the GBP to session lows against the major pairs, but al in all it remained a quiet, range bound session. GBP/USD below the 1.48 level and EUR/GBP at 0.9450 area. The USD/JPY paid hovered around the 90.30 area but unable to find any sustained momentum to prod higher. || One European dealer noted that price action in EUR/USD could be “key” to determine whether the pair moves higher to test its 200-day moving average march back toward the 1.32 area. || Thai Central Banker Pongpen: Not concerned over recent Baht weakness || UBS analyst stated that it saw Chinese purchases of US Treasury's to declining due to reduced reserves by the PBoC. The analyst believed that the USD/CNY to trade in range of 6.8 to 7.0 over the next three months. It noted that the depletion in reserves were not a signal of Yuan weakness ||



-In Fixed Income: German 2-year Schatz hits an all-time low of 1.75% - dealers || Lower global yields underscoring the collapse in global demand in the wake of the heightened financial turmoil Far East industrial production paralleled by the declines of comparable magnitude reported by Asian exporters as Japan, China and South Korea during October-November period,



- In Energy: OPEC President Khelil stated that he Expected the group to comply with the latest cuts at 80% by February and saw full compliance by March || Venezuelan Energy Min reiterated the view that OPEC could hold anemergency meeting prior to scheduled March 2009 date || Russia noted that Ukrainian non-payment for gas threatened its economic growth. Russia again threatened Ukraine that it will cut deliveries in the event of a failure for payment over energy shipments in 2008. || Gazprom [GAZP.RU] Stated that it would favor Russian producers for orders and noted that foreign bidders must have 15% lower prices than domestic producers



*** NOTES ***

- Lower global bond yields underscoring the collapse in global demand. The New Zealand saw its third straight quarterly decline in its GDP data and dealers noting that interest rates need to be cut to perhaps record lows. The extent of the global slowdown continues to take the central bankers by surprise. The forces of risk aversion and collapsing exports/economies implications loom large in thinning liquidity conditions Just back on Dec 3rd the RBNZ Believed that technical recession in New Zealand had concluded

- The US session is 'action packed' with day with GDP and housing taking center stage. With the December option expiration out of the way dealers noting that equities are back to less position adjustment and likely to price in future realities.

Looking Ahead:

- 8:30 (US) Q3 Final GDP Q/Q Annualized: Expected at -0.5% versus -0.5% prior

- 8:30 (US) Q3 Final Personal Consumption: Expected at -3.7% versus -3.7% prior

- 8:30 (US) Q3 Final GDP Price Index: Expected at 4.2% versus 4.2% prior; Core PCE Q/Q: Expected at 2.6% versus 2.6% prior

- 10:00 (US) Dec Final U. of Michigan Confidence: Expected at 58.8 versus 59.1 prior

- 10:00 (US) Nov New Home Sales: Expected at 415K versus 433K prior; M/M: Expected at -1.0% versus -3.1% prior

- 10:00 (US) Oct House Price Index M/M: Expected at -1.3% versus -1.3% prior

- 10:00 (US) Dec Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: Expected at -40 versus -38 prior

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
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