perversely benefited from weak economic data overnight. Grim US housing
numbers and concern the auto industry may fail, even after the friendly Government
loans, weighed on US equities which are down around 1% at NZ time. US sentiment,
in turn, pushed oil down 2% to $39, copper down 5%, and shipping costs down 2%.
NZD held its
0.57 support for most of a quiet overnight session, until a breakdown to 0.5660
a few hours ago on tiny volume. This was simply following the mildly weak tone
in most other currencies, but augurs for a lower trading range next week.
AUD broke its
3-day 0.68 support level, but has managed to bounce back inside. AUD/NZD is a
picture of grinding strength, now at the top of a new 1.19 to 1.20 range.
EUR struggled to
rise any further than 1.39 on the weak US data,
mildly positive Eurozone data and supportive ECB comments. Irrational, but this
is Christmas. The USD gained most against the JPY, from 90 to
just under 91.
real estate statistics hit two-decade lows. Nov new home sales fell 2.9% to
407,000, worse than the 419,000 expected. Existing home sales plunged 8.6% to
4.49 million (4.91 million expected). The Oct FHFA home price index fell 1.1%,
for a 7.5% yoy decline, thanks to increased foreclosures.
was finalised at -0.5%, as expected, and matches the previous quarterâ€™s fall.
consumer sentiment was revised up to 60.1, a rise from the horrible
manufacturing index fell to -55 (-40 expected). Personal consumption (Q3)
weakened slightly to -3.8%, the core PCE deflator to 2.4% q/q.
October current account deficit improved to EUR 6.4 billion (EUR 4.8
billion unadjusted). This negative number is more than offset by theEUR 107.6
billion net portfolio inflows, though.
UKâ€™s Q3 GDP release made for further grim reading, being
revised down to 0.6% against expectations, and the worst since Q4 1990. The
-1.8% outlook for 2009 provides no cheer. The current account deficit widened
to GBP 7.72 billion, but by less than expected. Mortgage approvals (Nov.) fell
from 20,767 to 17.773.
its benchmark interest rate 75bp to 5.00%.
breakdown overnight of 0.57 support points to a new 0.56 to 0.57 range for today,
and most likely early next week. However, we caution against reading too much
into market behaviour until early January, when the major participants will
start showing their hands again. Until then, we wish you an enjoyable break, and
the very best for 2009.
Strategy, 0800 922 239
contributions from Westpac Economics
Country Release Last Forecast
24 Dec US Nov
Personal Income 0.3% 0.1%
Spending â€“1.0% â€“0.8%
Nov Core PCE
Goods Orders â€“6.9% â€“4.0%
Jobless Claims w/e 20/12 554k 554k
Jpn Q4 BSI
Large Manufacturing %qtr â€“10.0 â€“
Q4 BSI Large
All Industry %qtr â€“10.2 â€“
Merch Trade Bal Â¥bn â€“175.6 â€“218
Can Oct GDP
25 Dec Intâ€™l
Jpn Nov BoJ
Policy Meeting Minutes
â€¢ NZ Q3 GDP
Review (23 December)
â€¢ NZ Q4
Consumer Confidence (22 December)
â€¢ NZ Q3
Current Account Review (22 December)
for NZ house prices in 2009 (18 December)
â€¢ NZ Q3 GDP
Preview (18 December)
Review (18 December)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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