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Tuesday December 30, 2008 - 11:09:28 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Oil remains below $40/barrel as demand concerns overwhelmed supply fears

Today 06:01am

European Market Update: Oil remains below $40/barrel as demand concerns overwhelmed supply fears

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

-: (FR) Nov Housing Starts 3M Y/Y:-14.4% v -18.6%e; Housing Permits: 3M Y/Y: -14.7% v -24.4% prior

- (CZ) Czech Dec Business Confidence: -6.4 v 2.5 prior; Consumer Confidence: -26.3 v -17.6 prior

- (SP) Spain Q3 House Prices Q/Q: -1.7%, Y/Y -3%

- (SP) Oct Spain Current Account (EUR): -7.9B v -8.5B prior

- (SW) Sweden Nov Trade Balance (SEK) 6.1B v 10.0B prior

- (SW) Sweden Nov Retail sales M/M:0.4% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.4%e

- (IT) Dec Retailers Confidence: 88.8 v 96.9 prior; Services Survey: -26 v -23 prior

- (GE) German Dec CPI-Brandenberg: M/M: 0.4% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.2% prior

- (GE) German Dec CPI-Hesse: M/M: 0.4% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.0% prior

- (EU) Nov M3 Y/Y: 7.8% v 8.5%e; M3 3 Mth Ave: 8.4% v 8.6%e

- (SZ) Swiss Nov UBS Consumption Indicator: 0.963 v 1.299 prior

- (IT) Italy Oct Large Company Employer Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.2% prior

- (GE) German Dec CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: 0.4% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.0% v % 1.1% prior

- (IT) Italy Nov PPI M/M: -1.6% v -1.2%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 3.0%e; Lowest MoM reading since 1980

- (GE) German CPI Baden-Wuerttemberg M/M: 0.4% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v % 1.6% prior

- (GE) German Dec CPI-Bavaria: M/M: -0.4% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.5% prior

- (UK) UK Nov House Prices M/M: -1.9%; Y/Y: -12.2% - Land Registry



*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

-Equities: Gazprom [GAZP.RU] Reported H1 Net profit of RUB573.8B compared to year-ago levels of RUB313.2B. Revenues came in at RUB1.74T versus RUB1.14T y/y. || Heritage Oil [HOIL.UK] Has Commenced drilling operations at the Giraffe-1 well in Uganda. It noted that the drilling operations would take 2-3 weeks but added that the recent success at Warthog and Buffalo wells reduced the risk exposure at Giraffe well || Rolls Royce [RR.UK] Awarded contract from Gazkomplectimpex, a Gazprom unit; for Russian-Europe Nord steam gas pipeline. The contract is to supply eight industrial aeroderivative gas turbines driving centrifugal compressors for the new 1,200km Nord Stream gas pipeline from Russia to Europe. || Telefonica [TEF.SP] Reportedly may face a Spanish antitrust fine as much as €700M according to Spanish newspaper Publico || Aker Solutions [AKSO.NO] Signed a 1-year frame agreement with Shell Norway and Shell U.K. for the supply of subsea umbilicals. The contract also has an option to extend it an additional 12 months || Unicredit [UCG.IT] Sold 95% of profit rights in Austrian B&C Industriestiftung assets for €1.06B


- Speakers: ECB's Hurley: Sees extremely weak global growth in 2009 || South Korea Vice Fin Min Bae: Economic downturn will be worst in the H1 of 2009 and improve in H2 of 2009 || ECB's Mersch stated that the Real economy was now being impacted by global financial market crisis . he also reiterated the view that EU spending programs should not 'break' Maastricht stability pact. || Germany's BGA Exporter Group lowered its forecast for 2009. the group now sees small negative growth rate for German exports compared to a prior view of +2.5% || Reportedly Israeli Minister stated that Israel was 'not interested' in Gaza truce at this time


- In Currencies: Price action was described best as 'whipsawed' over the last twenty-four hours as wide ranges characterized the illiquid market conditions associated with year-end. Dealers noting that fundamental rational remained in the background as 'stop-hunts' were the constant theme. The Euro exhibited some broad base strength as the morning wore on. EUR/USD edging towards the 1.42 area; EUR/GBP re-approaching its all-time high of 0.98 and EUR/CHF cross up 100 pips to trade above 1.4940 || USD/GCC: GCC Officials agree on final monetary union pact; agreement to be signed by Dec 12, 2009


- Energy: Eni [ENI.IT] Spokesperson commented that the company has received no order to halt its output in Ecuador and was continuing production operations || ONGC India Oil & Natural Gas [ONGC.IN] Reportedly Venezuela told the company it must cut supply from its San Cristobal oilfield to be in line with OPEC pact . The informal notice, expected to be followed by a more detailed notice within a week, is the first outward sign of the OPEC member enforcing its share of the 2.2M bpd output cut agreed two weeks ago. ||NYMEX crude languished in the lower quarter portion of its electronic trading range this session. Feb crude futures were off $0.50/ barrel at $39.50 area. Dealers cited that the soft South Korean industrial data was the catalyst for the softer tone. After it endure its largest Y/Y drop almost three decades. Thus demand concerns overwhelmed supply fear in the session.


- Commodities: Spot gold was lower in the European session at $872/oz. Overall dealers noting the metal maintained a supportive tone, with the conflict in the Middle East encouraging good demand on dips.


- Credit Crisis: WSJ reported that duringIn Q4, US banks and savings institutions might report their first combined quarterly loss since . The article noted that in Q3, the financial institutions reported a combined profit of $1.7B (-94% y/y). ||


***Notes***

- Demand concerns overwhelmed supply fear as oil remains below the $40/barrel level despite Mid-East tensions S. Korea Industrial production endured its steepest m/m drop since 1987, and the steepest y/y drop in data back to 1980. Far east equity bourses end the year with the Nikkei having its worst ever as it dropped by 42% YTD. It was the last trading day of the year for some financial markets.

- Eurozone November M3 money supply decelerated to 7.8% which will add to arguments for further rate cuts from the ECB. However, the three months average rate remains elevated above the reference value of 4.5%

- Chatter circulating that Microsoft was getting ready to lay off 17% of staff by mid-January

Looking Ahead:

- 7:30 (BR) Brazil Nov Primary Budget: 1.6Be versus 14.5B prior

- 9:00 (US) Oct S&P Case Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y: -17.9e versus -17.4% prior; Home Price Index: No Expectations versus 161.6 prior

- 9:45 (US) Dec Chicago Purchasing manager: Expectations 33.0 versus 33.8 prior

- 10:00 (US) Dec Consumer Confidence: Expectations 45.5 versus 44.9 prior

- (GE) German Dec Consumer price Index: M/M: 0.4%e versus -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.2%e versus 1.4% prior

- (GE) German Dec CPI EU Harmonized: M/M: 0.4% versus -0.6% prior; Y/Y: 1.2%e versus 1.4% prior

 

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