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Monday January 5, 2009 - 12:06:36 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: European equity rally fizzles; Big week for US jobs data; Fed officials endorse 'big stimulus' plans to move US out of recession

Today 05:47am

European Market Update: European equity rally fizzles; Big week for US jobs data; Fed officials endorse 'big stimulus' plans to move US out of recession


- (ID) Indonesia Dec Inflation M/M: -0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 11.1% v 11.4%e 

- (TH) Thailand Dec CPI M/M: -1.6% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 1.4%e 

- (SP) Spain Dec Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.8%e 

- (SZ) Swiss Dec SVME Purchasing Managers Index: 36.9 v 35.0e 

- (SP) Spain Dec Consumer Confidence: 48.9 v 48.7 prior

- (UK) Dec PMI Construction: 29.3 v 30.5e 

- (EU) Jan Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence: -34.4 v -42.3 prior

- (IT) Italy Dec Preliminary CPI (NIC incl Tobacco) M/M:-0.1% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.3%e

- (IT) Italy Dec Preliminary CPI (EU Harmonized) M/M: -0.2% v-0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.4%e 


- In equities: Axa [CS.FR] CEO: Will see gradual unfreezing of markets in 2009 || TGS Nopec Geophysical [TGS.NO] Announced new 3D operations in Gulf of Mexico as it purchases new survey of Desoto canyon area in Eastern Gulf || Carillion [CLLN.UK] Secured primary school contract, valued at £13M. Construction work will begin in January 2009 and the new school will open in March 2010. || Autonomy [AU.UK] Announced that it has entered into a multi-million dollar license agreement with BAE Systems to license Autonomy's Intelligent Data Operating Layer software for archiving. || European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co [EAD.FR]
Japan's All Nippon Airways reportedly no longer plans to buy Airbus' A380 citing that ANA was seeking to cut its CAPEX levels. || 

- Speakers: The Bank of Korea reaffirmed that it would put the top priority on its interest rate policy to help boost the economy and improve fund flows through the local financial system || China's Deputy PBoC Gov Yi Gang stated that China was well positioned to adjust monetary policy further if necessary, given that rates are higher than US and Japan's || According to government economist, Zheng Xinlu, China's economic growth will bottom in Q1 and added that China's growth will start to rebound in Q2 and will return to "normal" in Q3 as the government's stimulus measures start to take effect || German press reported that Prime Minister of Germany's North Rhine-Westphalia had requested as €100B rescue fund for companies impacted by the global recession || Reportedly BoJ could lower its 2009 growth forecast || HKMA Yam noted that despite current volatility, Yuan to rise in long term; He reaffirmed commitment to Hong Kong Dollar Peg || 

- In Currencies: The USD firmed during the early European morning. Dealers citing several factors behind the dollar's advance. EUR was impacted by a report in the Daily Telegraph that
Milan was considering legal action against a group of lenders who were helping it manage €1.7B of bonds. Italian authorities could be sitting on as much as €35B of liabilities relating to bonds they took out in the 1990s. The Euro also affected by chatter circulating of a fix-related demand for GBP from a UK clearer as a factor in the lower EUR.GBP cross. Also report from a top tier investment bank reportedly advocated going short EUR versus an equally weighted basket of GBP, NOK and SEK || A growing appetite in risk helping to weaken both JPY and CHF against the major pairs. USD/CHF above the 93 handle and USD/CHF tested near 1.1040 during the European morning. || S. Korea denied press reports that it was considering including Yuan in its Foreign Reserves. || Thai Fin Ministry stated that they see continued 'close' coordination with Central Bank and added that they expect the benchmark interest rate to fall || 

-In Fixed Income: Longer dated paper is conspicuously the biggest loser with 10yr yields climbing. Aside from some apparent erosion of the safe haven bid for government product, supply will also be on the markets radar screen this week with today due to see the Treasury announce this weeks 3- and 10-yr supply where sizes of $30bn and $12bn are expected. || Barron's issued a cautious feature on US Treasuries as overbought, citing increased support from Federal Reserve with regards to long term Treasuries, driving prices higher. Article draws attention to cautious comments from PIMCO's El Erian who feels they are 'very, very expensive', weakening USD and increasing attractiveness of Gold as an investment play. In response to the 'bubble' in treasuries, Barron's draws attention to 'shorting' treauries through two ETFs; Ultrashort 20+year Treasury (TBT) and Ultrashort 7-10 year Treasury (PST) || Italian authorities could be sitting on €35B of liabilities relating to bonds they took out in the 1990s in a Telegraph article || 

- In Energy: Gas disruptions resulting from continued tensions between Ukraine and Russia have reportedly began affecting Turkey and Czech Republic according to press reports. Germany's RWE [RWE.GE] Noted that firm had received about 5% less gas from Russia over the last 24 hours but added that it has been able to compensate for the decline in gas deliveries || Iraq plans to prevent the Kurdish Regional Government from exporting crude through the country's pipelines || Previously reported Nigerian pipeline break to halt 12K bpd, ENI's share totals 2.4K bpd || Japan Govt Spokesman Kawamura: China's gas development in the East China sea is unacceptable || Japan has complained about China's development of the Tianwaitian gas field, which Tokyo contends should be untouched until talks settle its status between the two nations. || 

*** NOTES ***

- Big week for U.S. jobs data as ADP employment change on Wednesday, the weekly initial and continuing claims on Thursday and the December non-farm payrolls report due out on Friday. The question remains whether there is a bottom in sight for
U.S. economy. Dealer noting that Equities want a mid-year economic rebound. President-elect Obama's economic stimulus package reportedly will include hundreds of billions of dollars worth of tax breaks for individuals and businesses.

- First 'real' trading day of 2009 saw some continued rotation flows out of fixed-income instruments that accelerated on Friday. The weekend Barron's article on
US bond was cautious on US Treasuries and described the instrument as overbought. 

- Japanese 2008 domestic auto sales were the lowest since 1974. Japanese officials continued with their verbal intervention. Shirakawa commented that the BoJ could consider measures to address ¥ appreciation. The trading year begins with technicals ripe for retracement moves of the Nov-Dec trends in stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies

Looking Ahead:

- 10:00 (US) Nov Construction Spending M/M: Expectations -1.4% versus -1.2% prior


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