Dollar trading stronger against most major currencies
The Dollar is
trading stronger against most major currencies.News that the U.S.
government may provide stimulus to the economy in the form of tax cuts and
spending is leading to speculation that the U.S. economy will be the first to
pull out of the recession.
The Euro is trading
weaker overnight. Last weekâ€™s bearish economic news out of the Euro Zone is
reviving talk that the European Central Bank will have to cut interest rates at
its first meeting of the year on January 15.The Euro may feel pressure throughout the day based on worsening
economic conditions in the Euro Zone.Traders are also beginning to think that the run-up in the Euro during
December was a bit overdone and are now poised to push it to more acceptable
levels.The charts indicate the first
downside target is 1.3634.
Traders are starting
to position themselves for a rate cut despite hints by ECB President Trichet
that they may consider alternative means to revive the sluggish Euro Zone
economy.Early last month the Euro
surged when ECB President Trichet hinted at skipping a rate cut at the European
Central Bankâ€™s next meeting on January 15.At the time he talked about watching the market and perhaps trying
alternative ways to stimulate the Euro Zone economy.A few weeks ago the ECB lowered rates on
deposits.This action put in the top and
led us to where we are today.
Given the developing
weakness in the Euro Zone, it looks as if the ECB has no choice but to lower
rates to at least 2.5% in January.Traders are beginning to price in a cut to this level which should lead
to more downside pressure in the Euro during the upcoming weeks.
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