- In equities: Imtech [IM.NV] Provided mediterm term outlook. It saw rise in
EBITA in 2008 and noted that its order portfolio up 18% y/y at â‚¬4.5B. It
reiterated strategic goals for 2012 with op margin expected at 6% and sales of
â‚¬5B. || ASM [ASMI] Signed Certified Manufacturer and Partnership Agreement with
SAFC Hitech || Publicis [PUB.FR] CEO Levy saw lower sales in 2009 in a FT
interview. Article noted that in an interview with the newspaper, CEO Levy
stated that the company's Internet advertising business would grow by ``two
digits'' and its activities in Russia
and China would
go on expanding, though more slowly than last year. Article noted that CEO
believed the emerging market growth wouldl compensate for ``a large part'' of
the contraction elsewhere, though not for all of it
|| Diageo [DGE.UK] CNBC reported that India's United Spirits slowly proceeding
on possible tie-up with company || Television Francaise [TFI.FR] Reportedly in
discussions to purchase Group AB.. La Tribune reported that company is in talks
to buy Groupe AB, which owns a 40% stake in digital television channel TMC ||
Next [NXT.UK] Reported H1 SSS -1.9% y/y but noted that its FY profit forecast
for the year to January 2009 remained in line with previous expectations. It
Reaffirmed FY forecast with profit in line with consensus forecasts of ÂŁ415M to
ÂŁ435M but added that the 2009 year looks set to be another challenging one. CEO
stated on the conference call that product prices seen rising by 5% to 10% in
H2 2009 || Debenhams [DEB.UK] Reported 12 week like-for-like sales -3.3% y/y.
The company commented that Trading will remain challenging for the entire
retail sector. The CEO stated in the conference call that the company gained
market share against competitors in Oct and Nov period and added that he expected
that trend to continue in Dec || Hochtief [HOT.GE] Reaffirmed its FY08 outlook.
The company maintained its earnings forecast for 2008 despite its unit Leighton
Holdings Ltd.''s value adjustment of listed participating interests. The groups
continues to expect new orders and order backlog above the high prior-year
level || Balfour Beatty [BBY.UK] Awarded military housing project at Lackland
AFB in Texas. Ci has acquired the interests in both Phases I and II of the
50-year military housing privatization project at Lackland Air Force Base,
located in San Antonio,
Texas. || Morgan Crucible [MGCR.UK]
Increasedits equity stake in NP Aerospace from 49% to 60% for ÂŁ12.2M || Eads
[EAD.FR] Thai Airways stated it would delay payments on 6 A330s aircraft for
three months || Experian [EXPN.UK] Forecasted UK retailers available rental
space to rise to 10% by Feb. it added that it saw 135K vacant stores by end of
2009, vacancy rates of 15%. Failure of retailers will leave significant gaps in
rental space || Renault [COO Pelata: Expected 2009 European car demand to
decline 20% to 25% compared to 2007. He added that the company had met its
inventory goal for 2008 and planned on further reductions next year.
- Speakers: PBoC Advisor Fan Gang noted that China
must spur investment to sustain economic growth. The Yuan's recent fluctuations
were normal, but did not comment whether the currency would weaken. He noted
that the decline in China's
fx reserves was due to declines in value of assets held by the central bank. China's
fx reserves fell in Oct due to valuation change (this was said to be the first
monthly fall since December of 2003) || (IN) Indian Export Group: To miss 2009
export target of $200B citing weakening demand. The export group noted that
fresh export orders wer drying up coupled with overseas buyers canceling
earlier orders || French Fin Min Lagarde stated that it was difficult to
predict when France
would emerge and recover from market crisis. She did note that December
spending data was favorable on a y/y basis. Private consumption levels remained
high throughout Dec and added that French consumers refrained from using credit
cards during Christmas season. She commented that lower gas prices were not
currently being considered || German Agency commented that it saw demand for
labor slowing due to 'difficult' economy ||
- In Currencies: The USD continued it form tone against the major European
pairs in the session. The EUR/USD hit fresh 3-week lows in the session. Dealers
noting that deteriorating Euro-zone economic fundamentals expected to the force
the ECB to a more aggressive rate cutting policy and with traders recognizing
that December's euro gains had been driven by temporary year-end factors. The
lower CPI estimate below the 2.0% ceiling will continue to make the case for
any aggressive ECB action. EUR/USD testing below the 1.34 level ahead of the NY
morning. The USD was additionally aided by President-elect Obama's $775B
stimulus plan. || EUR/GBP cross was again on the forefront of the volatility.
Dealer chatter circulated that selling pressure in the cross was due to merger
flows. Dealers citing the offer between France's EDF and UK British Energy was
declared free of conditions and â€śeffectiveâ€ť in that â‚¬12B deal. ||Former BoE
member Willem Buiter said that Americans must prepare themselves for a massive
collapse in the dollar as investors around the world dump their US
assets in a UK
newspaper interview. Buiter stated that the long-held assumption that US
assets (particularly government bonds) are safe haven will soon be overturned
as investors lose their patience with the US
economy. || China
reportedly planning CNY1T railroad project for 2009
-In Fixed Income: Barclays Analyst: Sees risks of "unruly unwindâ€ť of long
positions in US Treasury market Q1. The analyst Added that some price gain
before 'significant' top and noted that the 10-Year UST yield to retest 2% mark
(currently at 2.48%) . The US
yield curve flattened during the Asian and European morning. The 2-year US
nmote at 0.83 while the 10-year came in at 2.49%. The European curves were
modestly steeper during the session.
- In Energy: Gazprom Deputy CEO Medvedev stated that Gas via Ukraine
was 7-8 times below normal levels. He added that the situation was
'deteriorating' in gas dispute. Only 40M cubic meters are reaching Europe.
Energy components rebounded from session lows as dealers asses the
reduced natural gas shipments to Europe through Ukraine
and deliveries to the Balkans were cut at the Romanian border as a dispute over
pricing and transit fees led to a sixth day of supply disruption.|| Ukraine
Ambassador to Turkey Korsunsky stated that Gazprom should give Ukraine
more fees for gas transit. He added that Ukraine
had enough gas to last until April. Ukraine did not shut down Russian gas
supplies and asked Gazprom to re-open gas discussions || OPEC Delegate stated
that was not been informed over a potential
Feb meeting. The delegate commented that organization would cut output again if
prices slipped under $30 bbl || Credit Suisse analysts lowered their Global Oil
sector outlook to underweight from benchmark || Iran
plans to reduce oil supplies to at least two of its Asian customers by 14% in
Jan. The cuts would impact Iran's
light, heavy and Forozan crude. || Kuwait
told at least 2 Asian lifters that it would cut crude supplies by 5% from
contracted volumes as of Jan 22
- Credit crisis: WSJ "Heard on the Street" noted that banks with
significant losses may soon get a windfall tax. The column noted that the Obama
stimulus plan, could include tax changes that could give financials increased
tax rebates. Under the Obama plan, businesses may be allowed to write off large
losses incurred last year, as well as any losses from 2009, to retroactively
reduce tax bills dating back 5 yrs. ||S&P Analysts stated that the Japanese
Credit quality has been trending lower since Q3 2008 || (UK) Financial Services
Authority confirms short-selling ban to be lifted Jan 16 -Times
*** NOTES ***
- The lower Euro-Zone CPI estimate heightens the case for additional ECB rate
cut in January. The Y/Y CPI came in below the 2.0% ceiling for the first time
since August 2007 that ECB members hawkish adhere to. Increased talk that the
ECB could cut by 50bp to 2.00%at its Jan 15 policy meeting. Elsewhere in Europe,
the PMI services data was a mixed bag but remained at or near all-time record
lows for the region. Overall the continued global financial crisis is causing
lower economic growth and slowing inflation and poises central banks to continue
with their rate cutting habits. The ECB had already cut by 175bps since October
- Energy was a focus during Europe. NYMEX Feb crude
futures hit one-month highs above the $49.50 level as the OPEC compliance and
Russian-Ukraine dispute provided the catalyst for the move towards $50/barrel.
The last time the front month futures was above $50/barrel was back on Dec 1st
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Nov Industrial Product Price M/M: Expectations -1.1% versus
0.0% prior; Raw material Price Index M/M: Expectations -8.5% versus -12.55
- 10:00 (US) Dec ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite: Expectations 36.5 versus 37.3
- 10:00 (US) Nov Factory Orders: Expectations -2.3% versus -5.1% prior
- 10:00 (US) Nov Pending Home Sales M/M: Expectations -1.0% versus -0.7% prior
- (RU) Dec Consumer Prices M/M: % v 0.7%e; Y.Y: % v 13.5%e; CPI YTD: % v 13.3%
- 14:00 (US) Minutes of Dec 16th FOMC meeting
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
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