Tuesday January 6, 2009 - 12:03:07 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 06 -Jan-2009 - 1157 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.1228/30...Holding on strongly above 21-day MA
R: 1.1304 / 1.1340 / 1.1402 / 1.1505-09
S: 1.1166 / 1.1112 / 1.1082 / 1.0844
Swiss has risen past the 21-month MA and is now holding on firmly above that level. As the pair continues to take Support at the 21-day MA at 1.1085, a rise towards 1.13 cannot be ruled out. Looks like this bull run could possibly last till it reaches the 21-week MA at 1.1408 over the next few days if not immediately. Though it does have Resistance at the 55-week MA, it is likely to give away if the momentum continues to be strong. On the downside, it has been holding on strongly to the 21-day Support at 1.1082. If this Support breaks, the 55-week MA Support at 1.0844 looks strong enough. If this happens, the pair would have undone all the gains it has made yesterday.
Broader view suggests consolidation in the region of 1.05-1.14 over the next few days/weeks. But if it is able to break past the entangle on the upside, it could possibly target 55-month MA at 1.1930 over the next several days/weeks.
GBP-USD @ 1.4597/600...Ranged
R: 1.4825-49 / 1.4933-66 / 1.5043
S: 1.4581-57 / 1.4321
Little seems to have changed since the morning report was written as it continues to range between 1.4750-1.4550. It continues to take Support at the 8-day MA and test Resistance from the 13-day MA. If it manages to rise above 13-day MA and hold on firmly, it could possibly even go up towards 1.4854 (21-day MA). For that to happen, the Support of 8-day MA will have to hold on strongly. If it doesn't, the pair could slip to 1.4365 as can be seen from the candle chart. To see the chart of Cable, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/gbpcandle.shtml#candle
On the broader picture, the pair has been attempting to break the 8-week MA as it shyed away from this level after touching the Resistance. It could make fresh attempts to break this over the next few days.
AUD-USD @ 0.7105/07...Holding Short, Partly Exit
R: 0.7206-23 / 0.7379 / 0.7465
S: 0.7076 / 0.6995-82 / 0.6927-12
Earlier during the day we had profited out of the Short when it slide towards 0.7078 and then re-entered when it bounced back towards 0.7150 after taking Support of the 21-SMA on the 4-hourly. The view continues to remain the same as mentioned in the morning as the pair continues to face Resistance from 21-week MA. Till it manages to take Support of the 200-month MA at 0.7004, a rise further up towards 0.75 (upper end of the channel) over the next few days cannot be ruled out. However, immediately it could possibly continue to face Reistance from the 21-week MA at 0.7206.
Also, the channel in which the pair has been oscillating has the Support for the day near 0.6975. A dip below this looks unlikely for the day. To see the chart of Aussie, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/audcandle.shtml#candle
Exit Trade (at the time of writing)
Exit at current level (TP) AUD 10K Short entered at 0.7130
Short AUD 10K @ 0.7130, SL 0.7170 (down from 0.7220), TP 0.6990
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