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Wednesday January 7, 2009 - 11:15:13 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Central Bankers and Government officials note possible prolong recession; Euro-Zone PPI softens more than expected

Today 06:05am European Market Update: Central Bankers and Government officials note possible prolong recession; Euro-Zone PPI softens more than expected *** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (GE) Nov ILO Unemployment: 7.1% v 7.1%e - 3:00 (SP) Spain Oct House Transactions Y/Y: -27.7% v -27.1% prior; Mortgages on Houses: -33.9% v -37.2% prior; Mortgage-capital loan: -25.3% v -35.4% prior - (HU) Hungary Nov Unemployment: 7.8% v 7.9%e - (GE) German Dec Unemployment Change: 18K v10Ke; Unemployment Rate: 7.6% v 7.5%e - (NO) Norway Oct Unemployment: 2.7% v 2.6%e - (BR) Brazil Dec FGV Inflation IGP: -0.44% v -0.17%e - (EU) Euro-Zone Nov PPI M/M: -1.9% v -1.0%; Y/Y: 3.3% v 4.4%e - (UK) Dec BRC Shop Price Index: M/M: -2.0% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.5% v 2.7% prior - (UK) Dec car registrations down 21% y/y to 108.7K units -SMMT *** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - In equities: Marks & Spencer [MKS.UK] Reported Q3 UK SSS -7.1% which was better then expectations for a 8.3% decline. The firm will close 27 stores (25 of which are under performing small food stores). It now sees CAPEX for 2008/09 at no more than £700M. To make around 780 job cuts from retial and 450 head office cuts (1,230 total 2% of workforce) || Sodexho [SW.FR] Reported Q1 Rev €3.98B versus €3.83B expected and reaffirmed its FY forecast with Op Profit in a range of €730 to €760M range and organic revenue growth between 2% to 5%. Its net debt as of Aug 31 stood at €465M ||Air Berlin [AB1.GE] Reported Dec Load Factor 72.3% v 71.5% y/y || Aegon [AGN.NV] To Acquire Banca Transilvania''s stake in BT AEGON for €11M || Easy Jet [EZJ.UK] Reports Dec load factor 82.3% v 78.9% y/y || Domino's Pizza [DOM.UK] Reported 13-week like-for-like sales +8.6% v +14.8% y/y . It also reports FY08 Revenue of £350.8M v £296.3M y/y and like-for-like sales +10% || Greggs [GRG.UK] Reported Dec like-for-like sales +5.3% y/y. the company reaffirmed its FY08 outlook as inline with prior expectations and noted that its trading outlook for 2009 was demanding and customers would continue to feel the impact of the economic downturn. || Kier [KIE.UK] Named preferred bidder by Norfolk and Suffolk police authorities for police contract || Bodycote: [BOY.UK] Appoints Stephen Harris as new CEO, effective January 12 || Carillion [CLLN.UK] Awarded £170M Canadian highways maintenance contract || Scottish & Southern [SSE.UK] To place 40M shares via bookbuild; trading remains in line with expectations. It saw Sees FY dividend at least 66p/share and the 2010 dividend at least 4% above inflation || SkyePharma [SKP.UK] Received European product approval for Lodotra in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis and associated morning stiffness || Bayer Schering [BAY.GE] Schering unit Submited Visanne For Registration In Europe || Salzgitter [SZG.GE] Reiterates that Q1 trading will be difficult, sees market stabilizing around Q2 || British Petroleum [BP.UK] Chatter circulated that the company could be guiding Q4 analysts down from expectations || WPP [WPP.UK] NY Post reported that the company cut its North American staff by 10% || Boliden [BOL.SW] Executive confirms it is in talks with union at its Tara Zinc mine in Ireland. Company seeks to increase profits and noted that it had agreements with all but one union at Tara || - Speakers: ECB's Gonzalez Paramo commented that interest rate cuts have yet to be fully felt by economy. Noted that cuts were made only after inflation levels were secured below targets || German DIW Institute: Cut their German 2009 GDP view to -1.1% from +1.0% prior || French Fin Min Lagarde: Slowdown trend confirmed by December inflation report || German Labor Minister Weise noted that German Dec data showed the economic crisis was impacting the labor market. He commented that around 300K Germans could be on short shifts in Q1 || German SPD Chairman stated that his party was willing to back tax cuts but added that cutting the overall burden for people, also for those who do not pay taxes, and safeguarding jobs will be the main focus of the growth-boosting plan. || - In Currencies: The US put in a mixed performance during the European morning. The EUR/USD probed the 1.3460 level in late Asia before moving above the 1.36 handle as European equities trading commenced. Dealers commented the recent rise in the USD also made it vulnerable to profit taking, particularly after the US housing data, FOMC minutes and ahead of several key employment reports. Dealers noting that the USD soft tone was largely driven by the renewed concerns over the U.S. and the bleak outlook from the FOMC minutes. - The volatility in the EUR/GBP pair ahead of the BoE a two-day monetary policy meeting. The pair tested 0.9025 before moving towards 0.9150 area. -In Fixed Income: Dealers noting that the German 2-year/10-year spread steepened to +147 bps in the session, towards two month highs || Supply: Germany sold €4.06B 2019 Bunds; Average Yield Set At 3.12% and bid-to-cover at 1.305 times || (UK) sold £2.0B in 4.75% 2038 Gilts, bid-to-cover at 1.72 times with an 8 tick tail. The European fixed income futures saw their early gains erode as the NY morning approached. Mar Bunds off 29 ticks at 123.15 and Mar Gilts down 13 at 121.14. The European yield curve was steeper. The US yield curve was flatter with the 2-year/10-year benchmark yield spread narrowing to+166.0bp from Tuesday''s +167.5bp. - In Energy: Ukraine's Natfogaz stated that Russia has shut off all gas flows to Europe via Ukrainian system || Frontline [FRO.NO] CEO commented that: Oil traders seek up to 10 tankers for storage. The CEO noted that already hired 25 supertankers , which each can hold about 2M barrels of oil || *** NOTES *** - Central bankers and government officials have noted some concerns over their respective economies over the last 24 hours. The FOMC minutes released on Tuesday noted that Fed officials became resigned to a long, severe recession in the US. The Dismal US housing reports coupled with the recent auto sales data adds to the concerns. Now all focus will look toward the US employment reports (or as one dealer labeled it as “lack of” employment data. The UK Chancellor Darling noted in an FT interview that the UK was "far from through" the recession. Looking Ahead: - 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications: No Expectations versus 0.0% prior - 7:30 (US) Dec Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y: No Expectations versus 148.4% prior - 8:15 (US) Dec ADP Employment Change: -493K Expected versus -472K prior (revised from -250K) Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.


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