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Thursday January 8, 2009 - 11:09:48 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: European data and weather experiences "deep freeze"; Mid-East tensions heat up; BOE poise to cut interest rate to lowest level since its 1694 inception

Today 06:05am European Market Update: European data and weather experiences "deep freeze"; Mid-East tensions heat up; BOE poise to cut interest rate to lowest level since its 1694 inception *** ECONOMIC DATA *** - BOE Rate decision at 7:00am ET (12:00 GMT). Consensus expectations is for a 50bps cut to 1.50%. BOE interest rates have never been below 2.0% since its inception back in 1694. - (SZ) Swiss Dec Unemployment Rate: 3.0% v 2.9%e; Unemployment Rate SA Rate: 2.8% v 2.8%e - (GE) German Nov Trade Balance: €9.7B v €16.4Be; Current Account: €8.6B v €15.0B prior; Imports: -5.6% v -3.7% prior; Exports: -10.6% v -3.1%e - (SP) Spain Dec Net Unemployment M/M: 139.7K v 171.2K prior - (CZ) Czech Nov Trade Balance (CZK): -0.5B v 5.0Be - (HU) Hungary Nov Preliminary Industrial Output Y/Y: -10.1% v -7.5%e - (SZ) Swiss Dec CPI M/M: -0.5% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.9%e - (NE) Dutch Dec CPI M/M: -0.7% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.1%e - (NO) Norway Nov Industrial Production M/M: -0.1% v 3.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.1% v -0.9% prior - (NO) Norway Nov Industrial Prod Manufacturing M/M: -0.8% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.9% e - (EU) Euro-Zone Nov Unemployment Rate: 7.8% v 7.8%e - (EU) Euro-Zone Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y:0.6 % v 0.6%e - (EU) Euro-Zone Dec Business Climate Indicator: 3.17v -2.70e; Consumer Confidence: -30 v -26e (both are lowest readings on record) - (EU) Euro Zone Dec; Economic Confidence: 67.1 v 71.8e; Industrial Confidence: -33 v -30e; Services Confidence: -17 v -14e - (GE) Nov Factory Orders M/M: -6.0% v -1.9%e; Y/Y: -27.2% v -20.1%e - (SA) S. Africa Nov Manufacturing Production Y/Y:-4.4% v -2.4%e *** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: Costco [COST]: Reported Dec SSS -4.0% compared to consensus estimates of -4.1%. However on a ex-gas and -ex-currency adjustment, its Dec SSS rose by 4% y/y|| J Sainsbury plc [SBRY.UK] Reported Q3 Like-for-like sales up 4.5% (ex fuel) above consensus forecasts of 3.7%. Company stated that its non-food ranges continued to show good growth over the quarter and commented that it opened six new stroes during the quarter. However, it noted that the economic environment remains particularly challenging continue to be so during 2009 || Land Securities [LAND.UK] Announced the sale of Trillion to Telereal for £750M and noted that the sale did not include Accor Hotel portfolio. It would receive £444M cash on completion and now focus on core property investment and development activities. || Persimmon [PSN.UK] Reaffirmed its FY as inline with prior expectations but cautioned its short-term outlook remained challenging. It noted that it would not pay final dividend. The FY turnover was £1.76B || Hays [HAS.UK] Provided trading update and stated that its Q2 like-for-like net fess fell by 10%. It commented that permanent staff demand falling at increasing rate; temporary placements demand resilient || Wellstream [WSM.UK] Provided trading statement and noted it saw its 2008 results in line with expectations. Its H2 Revenue Backlog was £330M compared to levels of £336M a year ago. It noted that the fundamentals of the sector continued to be attractive and outlook for 2009 remains one of continued growth. Throughput in its manufacturing facilities increased by over 25% in 2008 || Cineworld [CINE.UK] Guided 2008 EBITDA in line with prior expectations and saw FY Rev +4.4% y/y || Ted baker [TBK.UK] Provided FY trading statement and noted that it saw profit at lower end of expectations. -It reported Nov 1 to Dec 24 sales were higher by 7.2% but that its gross margins during the same period were lower by 2.5% y/y || Weir Group [WEIR.UK] Provided trading statement and noted the group has continued to perform well compared to prior year || Qmed [QMED.SW] Terminated international distribution agreement with Palomar (entered back in Jan 2008). Company cited the decision was due to the downturn in the world-wide economic environment and its efforts would be concentrated on their own product line of dermal fillers.|| Autonomy [AU.UK] Revises its FY outlook and now sees revenues at or above forecasts || Volkswagen [VOW.GE] Audi unit reported Dec sales +17% y/y and achieved its FY target of 1M in unit sales || - Speakers: Polish Labor Min stated that its Dec Unemployment rate was 9.5% compared to 9.1% in Nov || French President Sarkozy stated that important decisions regarding the financial markets must be made during next G20 meeting. Nations must discuss their currency management. He noted that China and Brazil must have a say in matters. Debt must not be viewed in negative light . He commented that the US would not rule alone in the international financial system anymore adding that no single nation could tell others what should be done || Chancellor of Exchequer Darling denies press speculation about UK printing money, saying such debate was “hypothetical” - In Currencies: risk aversion bias in financial markets. Dealers were noting that speculation continued that global corporate earnings would continue to deteriorate and translate into weaker demand for commodities. The concern over the global economic health was helping to firm both the JPY and CHF pairs. The USD/JPY was off 100 pips at 91.70; EUR/JPY lower by 200 pips at 124.30 and EUR/CHF down 80 pips at 1.4945. The CHF also aided by continued tensions in the Mid-East as Israel claims that rockets were being launched from Lebanon. Euro is broadly softer among its major pairs and dealers noting selling could also be linked to eurozone bond redemptions, which are sizeable today and tomorrow. Nonetheless the economic data appears just as frigid as the weather as the Euro-Zone GDP confirmed the are is experiencing a “technical recession”. One dealer noted that “macro accounts” were setting up significant short Euro positions via options plays into recent euro upward price action || Japan's PM Aso commented that any sharp USD drop was very negative for Japan and that Japan needed to support dollar-centered financial system. The new year could give the MOF the motivation to allow the BOJ to move beyond the verbal intervention phase as the JPY appreciates || GBP price action was described as 'choppy' and directional bias was distorted ahead of the BOE rate decision later today. One analyst noted that if the BOE cut rates by 50bps, the GBP could stage a rebound. -In Fixed Income: Times reports that Chancellor Darling and BoE's Gov King were looking at expanding the money supply in order to buy assets including commercial and gov't debt. The BBC noted that a UK government “source” had not flatly denied the possibility, or ruled it out, but noted it is not something that is on the agenda at present - In Energy: Heads of Gazprom and Naftogaz have reportedly held talks about ending Russia-Ukraine standoff on supply cuts || German Foreign Min stated that signs of progress were seen in Russia/Ukraine gas dispute || Norway Reported its 2008 oil output at 122.7M cubic meters compared to 128.3M cubic meters y/y. It guided 2009 oil output at 110.8M standard cubic meters and saw 2009 Total output at 236M Standard cubic meters; and at 2.11M per day. Lastly it saw Total output at 228M std cubic meters by 2013 || Reportedly Israel fired artillery into Southern Lebanon in response to Lebanese rockets. Lebanese faction Hezbollah stated they were not involved in any rocket firing || Petroplus [PPHN.SZ] confirmed that a fire broke out at Ingolstadt refinery (110K bpd), which was caused by leaking fuel oil pump || Crude oil stabilized around the $43/barrel level during the European morning after tumbling in Wednesday's. Weak demand, but European turmoil triggered by Russia/Ukraine dispute supporting prices coupled with the tension in the Mid-East. - Credit markets: Reportedly Commerzbank [CBK.GE] and Allianz [ALV.GE] executives meet yesterday discussing Dresdner deal and work under pressure for aid || French newspaper reported that France could provide €10.5B in loans to banks during the Feb or March period (French Fin Ministry denied comment on the report) *** NOTES *** - As noted earlier, the risk aversion bias and theme re-emerged in financial markets. Dealers were noting that speculation global corporate earnings would continue to deteriorate and translate into weaker demand for commodities. The Australian building approvals data was markedly lower and suggesting a “collapse” in its housing market as well. The global slowdown could prompt the Bank of England to reduce its key interest rate today to an all-time low of 1.5 percent from 2.0%. The Euro-Zone Q3 final GDP data confirmed that the euro-zone is in technical recession and adds pressure for the ECB to continue its easing cycle when it meets next week. European Business sentiment and consumer confidence data registered their lowest readings since the data series began back in 1985 Looking Ahead: - 7:00 (UK) BOE Interest Rate Decisions: Consensus expectations for 50bps cut to 1.5% - 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 545K expected versus 492K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.483M expected versus 4.506M prior - 10:00 (CA) Dec Ivey Purchasing Manager Index: 37.5 expected versus 40.2 prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Consumer Prices M/M: 0.67% expected versus 1.14% prior; Y/Y: 6.50% expected versus 6.23% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.60% expected versus 0.50% prior (US) Dec ICSC Chain Store Sales Y/Y: No Expectations versus -2.7% prior Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.


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