Thursday January 8, 2009 - 12:04:22 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 08 -Jan-2009 - 1202 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.1024/26...Support at 1.0872
R: 1.1079-88 / 1.1179-99 / 1.1394
S: 1.0981 / 1.0948 / 1.0872
During the day, Swiss has dipped below the 21-day MA to find Support near the 50% fibonacci retracement of the rise from 0.9637 to 1.2300 at 1.0968 and has bounced up a bit from there. It is presently re-testing this Support and if broken could be targetting 0.0872 which is the 8-day MA. A rise above 1.11 has the potential to take it towards 1.14 over the next few days.
On the monthly chart, the pair having caught up between the 8-, 13- and 21-MAs could continue to oscillate between 1.05-1.14 over the next few days/weeks.
GBP-USD @ 1.5055/58...Awaiting BoE decision
R: 1.5134 / 1.5279
S: 1.4968-55 / 1.4895-66 / 1.4823
During the day, the pair had remained ranged between 1.4982-1.5111. Expected Rate cut of 50 bps seems to have factored into by the market. Markets could get volatile initially at the rate cut announcement. One should then excercise caution in entering into trade.
If there is lesser volatility after the rate cut announcement, a rise from here on could potentially be limited to 1.5270 as can be seen from the daily candle chart. However, for that to happen it wil have to break the Resistance at 55-day MA at 1.5152 which it is currently facing Resistance from. A dip from hereon, could possibly be Supported near 1.4883. To see the chart of Cable, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/gbpcandle.shtml#candle
AUD-USD @ 0.7030/35...Support at 0.7040-03
R: 0.7067 / 0.7107 / 0.7131-48
S: 0.6978-52 / 0.6917-13 / 0.6873
Aussie had risen towards 0.7099 during the day and then saw a sharp pullback to take Support on the 100-MA on the 4-hourly at 0.6956 (above the Support we had mentioned of 0.6925). It then has re-entered the Support region of 0.7040-03 as mentioned earlier which contains the 100-month MA, 200-month MA and the trendline Support on the daily chart. If it continues to take Support at the 100-MA on the 4-hourly or around 0.6925, it could be seen to rise towards the 21-week MA (at 0.7202) during the US session.
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