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Thursday January 8, 2009 - 22:09:27 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Month Ahead Forex Outlook for January 8, 2009

US Currency Outlook -- Forex Currency Pairs


Forex Currency Pairs




January 8, 2009

Forex Forecast of Major Currency Pairs


The Global-View.com Month Ahead Currency Outlook is prepared weekly by the trading professionals at GVI Forex. For information on the GVI Forex Service Click Here

A typical seasonal pattern is for the USD to weaken from mid-Decemder to yearend and then to recover in January. So far this pattern has been holding through the early days of January. A common perception is that the USD has suffered enough by now. Many feel now that it is the turn of the EUR to weaken. There is a broad perception that the U.S. has been aggressive in addressing its problems, and that other key central banks and governments are now working on their issues. On the other hand, the ECB is no longer well-regarded by the marketplace. It has been slow to admit that the Eurozone has problems just like everyone else, but like an old general, it has been fighting the last (inflation) war.

A shortage of USD liquidity has been driving the U.S. currency higher. This global shortage of USD has triggered massive USD liquidity injections by major central banks in key markets all over the globe. This could become a countervailing USD negative. Key now could be signs that U.S., credit markets might be starting to unfreeze. The deleveraging of the financial system is not over, but the end of year rush to deleverage is over. This process can now work its way through the system over a longer period of time. In general when the markets have been deleveraging, they have bought JPY and sold the EUR and the carry trade currencies.

The open question is how the USD will trade in the first half of the new year. Odds are for now that the USD is in good shape. However, once the dust settles, many could start to focus on the cost of all the aid from the U.S. government, and whether it can comfortably finance it. This could put the USD at risk. We will be keeping a close eye on the performance of U.S. fixed income markets as a key USD indicator.




Click on chart for two year history

In December, the ECB seemed to take U-turn on policy. Recall in July and September, the ECB had blundered by tightening monetary policy. President Trichet and the ECB have backpeddled on policy and are now in an easing mode. Recent economic data from the Euro-zone have been mostly weak. The data reinforce the view that a slowing global economy, an overly tight monetary policy and an overvalued EUR have been taking their toll on the Euro-zone. This has become a major negative for the EUR. The GBP has tended to trade with the EUR, but is a risk to a rapidly deteriorating economy. Substantial BOE policy ease has been a problem for the GBP vs. the EUR.

Demand for the commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) has been driven by market perceptions about demand for commodities. Such demand is thought to be generated by the global economic growth. As the global economy slows, this bloc of currencies will remain vulnerable against the USD.


Click on chart for two year history




Click on chart for two year history



John M. Bland is a co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in a forex inter-bank and futures trading arm of a subsidiary (ContiCurrency) of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was one of the early members of the Chemical Bank corporate advisory service in NYC, and also worked in international liability management for that bank. John holds an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelor�s degree in International Economics from Berkeley.



 

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
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EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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