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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Euro-Zone Retail sales beats expectations; US Payrolls poised for its first back-to-back drop of 500K+ jobs since 1940

Today 06:02am

European Market Update: Euro-Zone Retail sales beats expectations; US Payrolls poised for its first back-to-back drop of 500K+ jobs since 1940


- (CH) China Dec Trade Balance: $34.0B expected versus $40.09B prior; Exports Y/Y: -5.3% Expected versus -2.2% prior; Imports Y/Y: -20.0% Expected versus -17.9% prior

- (RU) Dec Consumer Prices M/M: % v 0.7%e; Y.Y: % v 13.5%e; CPI YTD: - % v 13.3%

- (CH) China Dec passenger car sales up 8.1% y/y - Industry group

- (IN) India Dec Wholesale Price Index Y/Y: % v 6.16%e

- (GE) Nov Retail Sales: M/M: % v 0.5%e; Y/Y: % v 0.0%e

- (FR) France Nov Industrial Production M/M: -2.4% v -0.8%e; Y/Y: -9.0% v -5.8%e

- (FR) France Nov Manufacturing Production M/M: -3.1% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -11.0% v -6.6%e

- (FR) France Nov Trade Balance: -€6.2B v -€6.5Be

- 3:00 (SP) Spain Nov Industrial Output WDA: -15.1% v -11.4%e; Industrial Output NSA: -17.2% v -11.3% prior

- (CZ) Czech Dec Unemployment rate: 6.0% v 5.9%e

- (CZ) Dec CPI: M/M: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.6%e

- (HU) Hungary Nov Preliminary Trade Balance: €99.9M v -€10.0Be

- (SW) Sweden Nov Industrial production M/M: -2.2% v -1.5%e; Y/Y: -11.9% v -8.1%e

- (SW) Sweden Nov Industrial Orders M/M: -4.3% v -1.4% prior; Y/Y: -26.2% v -14.7% prior

- (SW) Sweden Nov Activity Level:120.2 v 120.9 prior

- (IT) Italy Q3 Deficit to GDP ratio (YTD): 2.10% v 1.90% prior

- (NO) Dec CPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.3%e

- (NO) Dec CPI Underlying M/M: 0.2% v -0.1%e ; Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.5%

- (NO) Norway Dec Producer Prices (incl oil) M/M: -5.1% v -5.2% prior; Y/Y: 6.0% v 11.9% prior

- (NO) Norway Nov Retail Sales M/M: 0.8% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: -0.6% v -1.5%e

- (UK) Dec PPI Input M/M: -2.0% v -2.0%e ; Y/Y: 4.3% v 3.0%e

- (UK) Dec PPI Output M/M: 0.0% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: 4.7% v 4.0%e

- (UK) Dec PPI Output Core M/M: 0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 5.0% v 4.7%e

- (UK) Nov Industrial Production M/M: -2.3% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: -6.9% v -5.3%e

- (UK) Nov Manufacturing Production M/M: -2.9% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: -7.4% v -5.2%

- (EU) Nov Euro-Zone Retail Sales M/M: 0.6% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: % v -1.7%e

- (GE) German Nov Industrial Production M/M: -3.1% v -2.0%e; Y/Y: -6.4% v-5.7%e

- (BR) Brazil Dec IBGE Inflation M/M: 0.28% v 0.31%e; Y/Y: 5.90% v 5.96%e


- Equities: ASM [ASM.NV] Announced major restructuring in its European unit and would result in a reduction of 200 jobs (1.6% of the total workforce) . Plan involves the transfer from Almere, the Netherlands, of the remaining manufacturing and operational procurement activities for the Vertical Furnace product line to the Company's Front-end manufacturing operations in Singapore over the next 12 months. || Natixis [KN.FR] French press article noted that the company could report a Q4 loss of between €500M to €1B. A company spokesperson noted there were no plans for a recapitalization but was interested in funds from new state facility

|| Renault [RNO.FR] Reported FY08 sales of 2.38M units, which was down 4.2% y/y || Misys [MSY.UK] Expected to report revenue growth in high teens over H1 of 2008> the firm also stated that its CFO Jim Malone resigned with immediate effect ||Galapagos [GLPG.BE] Announces alliance with Merck in diabetes withan upfront payment of €1.5M || ThromboGenics [THR.BE] Begin a Phase III Program With Microplasmin for the Non-surgical Treatment of Back of the Eye Disease || Eurofins [ERF.FR] Awarded €10M from DLG contract || Jessops [JSP.UK: Reports 5-week SSS +3.1%; 14-week SSS -5.6%, Reaffirms guidance in line with prior expectations || Marshalls [MSLH.UK] Reportd FY08 Revenues of £378M compared to £403M y/y. It noioted that its FY Trading results remain in line with current expectations but was reducing the scale of investment in its consumer initiatives || JD Sports [JD.UK] Reported 5-week like-for-like sales +2.8% ending Jan 3. It saw group marginally exceeding FY pre-tax estimates || Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] Chatter circulating that private equity firms and a Chinese company were expected to bid for company's Borates and Talc mineral units for $1.2B sale || BBA Group [BBA.UK] Provides trading statement and noted that its FY forecast was in line with expectations ||

- Speakers: ECB's Trichet reiterated central bank's policy is to keep inflation under 2% ceiling || Reportedly Hamas rejected a UN's ceasefire resolution for the Gaza situation || South Korea Central Bank noted that it would provide $3B in loans to domestic banks next week using US Fed credit line || China's PBOC had reportedly eased restrictions on interbank trading and expanded its interbank bond market. The PBoC removed minimum CNY500M base on interbank bond offerings || BMW [BMW.GE] Reports December sales at 112.4K units, which was down 26.4% y/y. its FY08 sales came in at 1.4M units; down 4.3% y/y || Rand [RAND.NV] Announced a reorganiztion it its French operation in which it would cut 489 positions and close 85 branches

- In Currencies: The USD was holding a soft tone ahead of its Nonfarm payroll data later today. The EUR/USD moved above the 1.37 after the Nov retail Sales data for theEurozone was above expectations and complemented the earlier report in which German retail sales data came in above consensus in the M/M comparisons. Elsewhere in Europe, the economic releases in the session were a mixed bag. The U.K. PPI also came in stronger than expected in December helping the GBP/USD move back above the 1.52 handle in the session. However, U.K. industrial and manufacturing production were markedly weak as was the French production figures.

- The JPY was firmer against the major pairs as risk aversion sentiment continued in the carry-related pairs. USD/JPY probing the mid 90 level ahead of the NY morning.

-In Fixed Income: (UK) DMO's Stheeman commented that the recent drop in GBP had not negatively affected Gilt sales and added that the fall in Sterling may have increased foreign purchases of Gilts. Quantitative easing was not declared government policy and that the funding crisis scenario was not in line with reality. He added that the - Gilt market was "fairly priced". The DMO remained committed to issuing Long-dated Gilts and that both GEMMs and end investors suggested strong demand for long end of yield curve. Issuing at long end of curve remained attractive despite recent steepening. No Syndication deals planned at this time, but could be considered. Lastly he dismissed the case for foreign currency issuance ||Bank of America analysts sees 2009 US Treasury refinancing needs of $2.14T. BOA forecasted that 2010 refinancing needs would be $1.02T; noting that the US Treasury would need a significant boost in 2009 offering sales ||

- In Energy: Ukraine's Naftogas stated it was not opposed if Russians were included in EU's gas monitoring detail inside its borders || WSJ discussing the oil Contango with oil prices has caused daily charter rates for tankers shipping crude to rise sharply. The article noted that according to the Baltic Exchange, daily charter rates for shipping crude from the Middle East to the US rose by 45% on Thursday ||Endeavor [END] Reportedly made a commercial find at Cochran 1 well. The Cochran 1 drilled to depth of 16.9K feet; exploratory well encountered 3 zones of potential natural gas pay ||

*** NOTES ***

- The day is all about US payrolls. On a “historical” note; dealers pointing out that there has not been two consecutive months with over 500K job losses in the US since 1940 (U.S. population was about half of what it is now). The execrated range of “damage” in this data series is seen between a loss of 350K to 750K and some murmurs of a possible loss of 1M being discussed on trading desks. The ADP data earlier in the week was a wakeup call and some discussions that perhaps its released could have immunized markets from a “horrendous” non-farm payroll number today. The US number will provoke the focus towards the ECB decision next Thursday with a 50 bp rate cut expected as most see ECB policy as being well behind the curve. The slew of data out of Europe was mixed, but retail sales for Germany and the euro-Zone beat expectations.

Looking Ahead:

- 7:00 (CA) Canada Dec Net Change in Employment: -20.0K expected versus -70.6K prior; Unemployment Rate: 6.5% expected versus 6.3% prior

- 8:15 (CA) Canada Dec Housing Starts: 170.0K expected versus 172.0K prior

- 8:30 (CA) Canada Nov Building Permits M/M: -5.0% versus -15.7% prior

- 8:30 (US) Dec Unemployment Rate: 7.0% expected versus 6.7% prior

- 8:30 (US) Dec Change in Nonfarm payrolls: -525K expected versus -533K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: -100K expected versus -85K prior

- 8:30 (US) Dec Average Hourly earnings M/M: 0.2% versus 0.4% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 33.5 expected versus 33.5 prior


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